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AR-01 / ARENAGOVERNED LOCKS · ISSUANCE INACTIVE

Housing / US

This page preserves 120 append-only governed forecasts and their receipts. None has been graded. Their visibility is not an accuracy claim, an active forecast product or authority to issue or grade another forecast.

The current institutional US report architecture is a separate empty state. ALFRED execution paths are closed; no source is model- or report-eligible; native FHFA capture cannot begin before 2026-09-29 and remains capture-only pending a Track O ruling.

FORECASTS LOCKED120
GRADED0
ACCURACYinsufficient data — nothing has been graded
WHAT THIS
RECORD CONTAINS
Locked forecasts for the United States and its nine Census divisions, expressed as FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index levels at three, six and twelve months with intervals. This is a preserved governed ledger, separate from the current institutional product and its future track record.

How to read this governed record

Each row records what was locked, when, for which target period and with what interval. It remains ungraded. The expected-verdict date is historical schedule metadata from the lock, not a promise that grading is authorized.

No current source is eligible to grade these locks: ALFRED execution is closed, and a future native FHFA capture remains capture-only until Track O issues a separate source-supersession ruling.

01 / GOVERNED LOCKED FORECAST RECORD
LOCKED · CURRENT VINTAGE2026-08-05T21:42:40.652561+00:00
60b39a79 · UNITED STATES · 12M
449.647
95% interval 439.275 … 460.264
Index level. That is +1.63% against May 2026 — the last month the FHFA had published when this was locked, and the point the 12M horizon is measured from.
vintage 60b39a79 →FOR May 2027 · VERDICT ~Jul 2027
OTHER DIVISIONS · SAME VINTAGE
West South Central428.413
West South Central428.498
West South Central425.040
West North Central437.293
West North Central443.214
West North Central427.980
United States452.327
United States442.420
South Atlantic477.451
South Atlantic478.447
South Atlantic469.510
Pacific460.373
Pacific462.515
Pacific463.980
New England469.486
New England473.287
New England455.650
Mountain615.773
Mountain612.728
Mountain607.910
Middle Atlantic426.239
Middle Atlantic433.330
Middle Atlantic414.590
East South Central430.059
East South Central433.653
East South Central421.460
East North Central389.178
East North Central395.297
East North Central380.070
West South Central431.727
West North Central440.840
United States454.285
South Atlantic484.516
Pacific454.678
New England479.856
Mountain626.838
Middle Atlantic431.044
East South Central435.197
East North Central392.337
NEW ISSUANCEinactive · GATE-1 open
PERSISTENT REFUSAL RECEIPTS · 10 SERIES
East North Central0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
East South Central0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
Middle Atlantic0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
Mountain0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
New England0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
Pacific0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
South Atlantic0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
United States0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
West North Central0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
West South Central0 observations in the fit window
Required source us-fhfa-po-hpi-via-alfred-v1 is classified restricted pending review and is not permitted as a model input. No alternative source was selected.
A refused series is a finding, not an absence. We publish no forecast we could not grade: a forecast with no interval can never be a pass or a miss, so it is refused rather than locked.
02 / EVERY GOVERNED LOCK

Every forecast this arena has issued, in the order the run log prints them. Each row opens the locked record it came from. None has been graded, so none carries an outcome — a pending row shows what was committed, and nothing else.

DATA THROUGH is the last month the FHFA had published when the forecast was locked — the point the horizon is measured from. TARGET PERIOD is the month the forecast is about: data-through plus the horizon. EXPECTED VERDICT is roughly when the FHFA publishes that month's figure and the forecast can be graded, on their release calendar rather than ours, which is why it carries a tilde.

Read the three together. A horizon counts months of the index, not months on the wall clock. The FHFA publishes about two months in arrears, so a three-month forecast locked in early August runs from May's figure — the newest one that existed — to August's, which will not be published until around October. The forecast is neither late nor a short hop: it was written when August's number did not exist, and it still does not.

VINTAGESERIESHORIZONFORECASTCHANGEINTERVALDATA THROUGHTARGET PERIODEXPECTED VERDICTGRADE
d2de3404East North Central3M382.567+0.66%376.855 … 388.367May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
98536c48East North Central3M383.821+0.99%377.173 … 390.586May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
bf171159East North Central3M380.070−0.00%372.366 … 387.934May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
b5801731East North Central3M383.823+0.99%377.961 … 389.777May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
60ae3cd5East North Central6M384.863+1.26%376.761 … 393.139May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
4c5807bfEast North Central6M387.608+1.98%378.148 … 397.305May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
8f5cd178East North Central6M380.070−0.00%369.221 … 391.238May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
3c177539East North Central6M386.955+1.81%377.319 … 396.837May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
5915ab30East North Central12M389.178+2.40%377.642 … 401.067May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
a0d444d1East North Central12M395.297+4.01%381.722 … 409.354May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
695d51f8East North Central12M380.070−0.00%364.818 … 395.960May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
36b1aacaEast North Central12M392.337+3.23%373.702 … 411.901May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
38c9f1cbEast South Central3M423.251+0.42%415.312 … 431.342May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
b6bebff8East South Central3M424.476+0.72%415.590 … 433.551May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
53bd4f5cEast South Central3M421.460+0.00%411.531 … 431.628May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
7a79f036East South Central3M423.824+0.56%417.476 … 430.267May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
6ebed965East South Central6M425.664+1.00%414.417 … 437.217May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
d8c146beEast South Central6M427.513+1.44%414.912 … 440.497May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
2b65bcc4East South Central6M421.460+0.00%407.488 … 435.911May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
f6eb647eEast South Central6M428.052+1.56%417.782 … 438.574May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
2adbe290East South Central12M430.059+2.04%414.077 … 446.659May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
2f52c80fEast South Central12M433.653+2.89%415.687 … 452.395May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
9be52b6cEast South Central12M421.460+0.00%401.837 … 442.041May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
5bc0ef74East South Central12M435.197+3.26%415.312 … 456.035May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
cf75f32bMiddle Atlantic3M417.354+0.67%410.097 … 424.739May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
cf72ef78Middle Atlantic3M419.198+1.11%410.644 … 427.929May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
904244c2Middle Atlantic3M414.590+0.00%404.951 … 424.459May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
6387cfd2Middle Atlantic3M418.287+0.89%411.066 … 425.635May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
31b3224dMiddle Atlantic6M420.418+1.41%410.118 … 430.978May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
7984e5caMiddle Atlantic6M423.857+2.24%411.678 … 436.396May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
16bb8075Middle Atlantic6M414.590+0.00%401.024 … 428.615May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
a24a10ceMiddle Atlantic6M422.870+2.00%410.897 … 435.192May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
9675249cMiddle Atlantic12M426.239+2.81%411.545 … 441.457May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
b7f71532Middle Atlantic12M433.330+4.52%415.827 … 451.571May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
a585a18bMiddle Atlantic12M414.590+0.00%395.536 … 434.562May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
ea986197Middle Atlantic12M431.044+3.97%407.889 … 455.514May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
3f61e661Mountain3M609.379+0.24%596.648 … 622.383May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
dcbc4489Mountain3M609.111+0.20%591.539 … 627.205May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
ebc36c89Mountain3M607.910−0.00%589.783 … 626.594May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
11051e0cMountain3M611.121+0.53%597.165 … 625.404May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
4d1f04cbMountain6M611.553+0.60%593.562 … 630.089May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
2ad72975Mountain6M610.314+0.40%585.565 … 636.110May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
0c1daff8Mountain6M607.910−0.00%582.433 … 634.501May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
76056efdMountain6M616.466+1.41%589.961 … 644.161May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
472df780Mountain12M615.773+1.29%590.312 … 642.333May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
8c202bacMountain12M612.728+0.79%577.886 … 649.671May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
4aa543e3Mountain12M607.910−0.00%572.196 … 645.853May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
4f6efddfMountain12M626.838+3.11%571.447 … 687.599May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
6502d5e2New England3M459.173+0.77%448.828 … 469.757May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
8a98a6b6New England3M459.997+0.95%447.892 … 472.429May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
4cf1d809New England3M455.650+0.00%442.507 … 469.183May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
c1ea604cNew England3M461.896+1.37%451.778 … 472.241May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
138918e1New England6M462.505+1.50%447.837 … 477.653May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
0081ce9cNew England6M464.385+1.92%447.197 … 482.233May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
d414cd13New England6M455.650+0.00%437.175 … 474.906May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
801ea673New England6M467.562+2.61%451.479 … 484.217May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
7a6f73ceNew England12M469.486+3.04%448.568 … 491.378May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
ac145020New England12M473.287+3.87%448.705 … 499.216May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
1cf3f0e6New England12M455.650+0.00%429.743 … 483.119May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
4213a552New England12M479.856+5.31%449.805 … 511.914May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
fd32acd6Pacific3M463.179−0.17%453.622 … 472.937May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
d6a66adaPacific3M463.613−0.08%448.682 … 479.041May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
91b06395Pacific3M463.980+0.00%449.194 … 479.252May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
730a0c51Pacific3M461.945−0.44%451.543 … 472.586May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
0ac95c47Pacific6M461.970−0.43%448.548 … 475.794May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
71a72febPacific6M463.247−0.16%442.289 … 485.197May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
00bca2a7Pacific6M463.980+0.00%443.209 … 485.725May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
e7a9f5cdPacific6M458.702−1.14%437.788 … 480.615May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
78ca71c0Pacific12M460.373−0.78%441.571 … 479.975May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
6c55adbfPacific12M462.515−0.32%433.203 … 493.809May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
4875f389Pacific12M463.980+0.00%434.880 … 495.027May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
594fcbc5Pacific12M454.678−2.00%407.649 … 507.131May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
60cfdf23South Atlantic3M471.327+0.39%462.798 … 480.013May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
183b71b0South Atlantic3M471.728+0.47%460.589 … 483.137May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
b507cb72South Atlantic3M469.510+0.00%457.471 … 481.866May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
8268eb50South Atlantic3M472.748+0.69%463.710 … 481.963May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
a3add3d6South Atlantic6M473.314+0.81%461.247 … 485.696May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
de1f74aeSouth Atlantic6M473.957+0.95%458.207 … 490.249May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
85c81d40South Atlantic6M469.510+0.00%452.575 … 487.078May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
fa4170f5South Atlantic6M476.501+1.49%459.808 … 493.800May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
409ed8d9South Atlantic12M477.451+1.69%460.329 … 495.210May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
795058fdSouth Atlantic12M478.447+1.90%456.117 … 501.870May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
e920d3b1South Atlantic12M469.510+0.00%445.741 … 494.546May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
22e4850fSouth Atlantic12M484.516+3.20%449.237 … 522.565May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
75e9f91aUnited States3M444.239+0.41%439.085 … 449.453May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
cad0353dUnited States3M444.876+0.56%437.274 … 452.611May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
d12f0c2bUnited States3M442.420−0.00%433.584 … 451.436May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
77c79ab8United States3M445.427+0.68%439.152 … 451.792May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
5fa6770fUnited States6M446.016+0.81%438.716 … 453.438May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
a7a65b00United States6M447.346+1.11%436.573 … 458.385May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
5f6d81f0United States6M442.420−0.00%429.975 … 455.225May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
6884541cUnited States6M448.305+1.33%436.085 … 460.868May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
60b39a79United States12M449.647+1.63%439.275 … 460.264May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
742fd570United States12M452.327+2.24%437.000 … 468.192May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
342a20f1United States12M442.420−0.00%424.924 … 460.637May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
43a9122eUnited States12M454.285+2.68%427.869 … 482.332May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
ccfaa251West North Central3M430.390+0.56%423.306 … 437.593May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
39351720West North Central3M431.739+0.88%424.025 … 439.592May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
047b8098West North Central3M427.980+0.00%418.924 … 437.232May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
837da57dWest North Central3M431.461+0.81%424.893 … 438.131May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
8f0526a1West North Central6M432.534+1.06%422.500 … 442.806May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
d1245820West North Central6M435.530+1.76%424.567 … 446.776May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
9795b2aaWest North Central6M427.980+0.00%415.229 … 441.123May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
0654dd39West North Central6M434.129+1.44%423.681 … 444.834May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
e6191604West North Central12M437.293+2.18%423.016 … 452.052May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
c479a104West North Central12M443.214+3.56%427.519 … 459.485May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
bc91e69dWest North Central12M427.980+0.00%410.059 … 446.684May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
61d746daWest North Central12M440.840+3.00%420.442 … 462.228May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
e30bbf49West South Central3M425.494+0.11%418.834 … 432.260May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
39fcc28bWest South Central3M425.902+0.20%417.639 … 434.328May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
aa99f4ecWest South Central3M425.040+0.00%416.300 … 433.963May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
fb1abc3fWest South Central3M425.541+0.12%419.486 … 431.684May 2026Aug 2026~Oct 2026PENDING
558b11b5West South Central6M426.284+0.29%416.878 … 435.902May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
bd4c3d4bWest South Central6M426.765+0.41%415.104 … 438.754May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
636d8b51West South Central6M425.040+0.00%412.733 … 437.714May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
35b8aa5eWest South Central6M427.050+0.47%416.691 … 437.668May 2026Nov 2026~Jan 2027PENDING
07524582West South Central12M428.413+0.79%415.106 … 442.147May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
12bddfb4West South Central12M428.498+0.81%412.034 … 445.620May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
d4d5dbfaWest South Central12M425.040+0.00%407.741 … 443.073May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
0370ffcdWest South Central12M431.727+1.57%411.397 … 453.062May 2026May 2027~Jul 2027PENDING
EARLIER CYCLES

Forecasts this arena issued before the cycle above. They are part of the record and part of the count in the masthead, so every one of them opens here. Nothing is retired, and nothing is summarised away.

LOCKED 2026-08-0430 LOCKSar12_logdiff
57f28975 · East North Central 3Ma720b478 · East North Central 6M2339d9eb · East North Central 12Md02994e2 · East South Central 3Mceb0870d · East South Central 6M54a1ef5a · East South Central 12M19075ba8 · Middle Atlantic 3M7399c8f1 · Middle Atlantic 6Md411b483 · Middle Atlantic 12Mff01986b · Mountain 3Mc699e4b6 · Mountain 6M1b41ce55 · Mountain 12M7053e6c1 · New England 3M7a5b4654 · New England 6M9c8abc48 · New England 12M4d8f88e0 · Pacific 3Mab566341 · Pacific 6M73207311 · Pacific 12M34ec67fd · South Atlantic 3M276a3098 · South Atlantic 6Mf602c510 · South Atlantic 12M2595606d · United States 3Me1e174c7 · United States 6Mb1d86293 · United States 12M6d7ad9bd · West North Central 3Mf25b7a77 · West North Central 6M3ed0fbb7 · West North Central 12M30bd22cf · West South Central 3M146cfaf0 · West South Central 6M79c5ba1e · West South Central 12M
03 / GRADED HISTORY

Every row links to the vintage's own page. Misses sit in the same table as passes, in issue order, never sorted away.

BELOW THE SEAM · MIGRATED v1 BACKTEST · FITTED AFTER THE FACT · COUNTS ONLY, NO RATES
SEAM · NOTHING BELOW THIS LINE WAS FITTEDFORWARD RECORD BEGINS 2026-08-04 · NOTHING BELOW WAS LOCKED IN ADVANCE
INSUFFICIENT DATA
No forecast has been graded yet. The forecasts above are locked and waiting on the FHFA figures for the periods they name; the first verdict appears here on its own schedule, whether it is a pass or a miss. It cannot be hurried, and a forecast cannot be graded early.
04 / LIMITATIONS

Constitutional. This block is the same size class as the results panel above and is never collapsed, moved below the fold, or set in a smaller face.

WHAT THIS ARENA CANNOT TELL YOU
L-01
This arena has no forward track record. Its forecasts are locked and none has been graded, so there is no accuracy figure on this page — not a provisional one, and not a favourable early read. The first grades mature on the FHFA's publication schedule, roughly two months after each period ends.
L-02
The historical results shown on this site for this arena are a BACKTEST, migrated from v1. They were fitted after the fact against data that already existed, and no backtest is evidence that a forecast made in advance will be right. They are never mixed with, averaged into, or shown as continuous with the locked forecasts above.
L-03
The migrated backtest has unmeasured completeness. v1 graded where its loop ran and matured, and no committed artifact states coverage per model, horizon or series — so an ungraded forecast in that set is not a miss, and the denominator of any rate over it is unestablished. Counts of graded rows are published; rates are not, and will not be until that is fixed.
L-04
v1's forecast grid was mutated roughly 129,960 times before write-once triggers existed on 2026-06-26, and its pre-mutation state is unrecoverable. Its published ensemble was adopted after the combiner it replaced was found degenerate on this same backtest, and its turning-point anchors were widened one day after grading began. Model selection followed the outcomes. This is why that history is classed as backtest and carries no rate.
L-05
Consecutive locks of the same target period are correlated forecasts, not independent trials. Every declared series is forecast at every lock at three, six and twelve months, so once grading begins, a count of grades over this arena counts each realized month up to three times. The count of distinct realized months is published beside every grade count for exactly this reason.
L-06
A horizon here counts months of the index, not months on the calendar. Each forecast is measured from the last month the FHFA had published when it was locked — shown as DATA THROUGH on every row — and the FHFA publishes about two months in arrears. So a three-month forecast locked in early August runs from May's figure to August's. What is guaranteed, and independently checked on every lock, is that the target month's figure did not exist when the forecast was written. What is not claimed is three months of calendar distance between the lock and the answer.
L-08
Metropolitan areas are excluded, not missing. This arena covers the United States and the nine Census divisions — the coverage v1 proved. No metro forecast exists to show, and none is implied by the divisions above.
L-09
FHFA figures reach us through FRED/ALFRED rather than directly from the FHFA, because the FHFA publishes the current index but not an archive of what each past release said — and grading a forecast against the data available when it was made requires that archive. The redistribution is recorded on every source row. ALFRED's vintages for these series begin 2012-05-23; earlier vintages do not exist to be had.
05 / ISSUE CADENCE
ISSUE CADENCEmonthly — triggered by the FHFA/ALFRED publisher vintage, not by the calendar
HORIZONS3, 6 and 12 months, for every declared series, at every lock
Consecutive locks of the same target period are correlated forecasts, not independent trials. A grade count over this arena is not a count of independent tests: summing across the three horizons counts each realized month three times. Wherever grades render, the count of distinct realized months renders beside the count of grades.
06 / CALIBRATION
INSUFFICIENT DATA
A calibration curve needs graded forecasts to plot. These forecasts are locked but none has matured, so there is no curve — not a flat one, and not a shape borrowed from anywhere else.
07 / PROVENANCE & ENDPOINTS
PRIMARY SOURCEFederal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
RETRIEVED VIAFRED / ALFRED — real-time vintage archive, redistribution disclosed
INDEXFHFA House Price Index, Purchase-Only, monthly, seasonally adjusted
SERIES RESOLUTIONresolved per run from FRED metadata; no series ID is pinned
COVERAGEUnited States + 9 Census divisions; metros excluded
MODEL SPECv1.1 — AR(12) on log first differences, pre-registered 2026-08-04
ACTUALSfirst_print (headline) · settled_t_plus_12 (companion)
VINTAGES FROM2012-05-23 (earliest ALFRED vintage for these series)
ISSUE CADENCEmonthly — triggered by the FHFA/ALFRED publisher vintage, not by the calendar
HORIZONS3, 6 and 12 months, for every declared series, at every lock
THE v1 API SERVES THE RECORDIt reads the same rows this page renders. Every locked forecast shown here is in it, at the same identifier and the same anchor.
GET /v1/vintages?arena=housing_usThis arena's locked vintages, from the record, newest first.
GET /v1/calibration?arena=housing_usRefuses while nothing is graded: a reliability curve over an empty set does not exist, so it returns insufficient data naming the denominator rather than an empty curve.
The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.ARENA AR-01 · ISSUANCE INACTIVE · GATE-1 OPEN