SCORECARDARENASDISCOVERYFOUNDATIONSFOR AGENTS

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Mountain · 6M

On 5 August 2026 we predicted Mountain house prices would be 0.00% lower by November 2026.

Our stated range was 582.433 to 634.501 — if the method works as intended, the true figure lands inside it about 95% of the time. Verdict due the first FHFA release covering November 2026, when the official figure is published. It has not been graded yet, and nothing on this page can change what was written above.

01 / WHAT WAS LOCKED

FORECAST · INDEX LEVEL607.910

CHANGE FROM BASE−0.00%

95% INTERVAL582.433 … 634.501

BASE — LAST FIGURE PUBLISHED BEFORE THE LOCK607.910 · 2026-05-01

TARGET PERIOD2026-11-01

LOCKED AT — TIMESTAMP ASSIGNED BY THE DATABASE2026-08-05T21:42:36.98207+00:00

02 / WHEN THIS GETS ITS VERDICT

This forecast is graded against the FIRST figure the publisher releases for November 2026 — the number the market actually saw — and never against a later revision. That rule was fixed on 2026-08-03, before this forecast existed.

Headline grade (first_print): the earliest publisher vintage at or after the target period. Available roughly two months after the period ends, on the publisher's schedule, not ours.

Companion grade (settled_t_plus_12): the value as published twelve months after the target period, which measures how much the first figure was revised. Available roughly fourteen months after. Both definitions were committed before any grade existed under either.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This forecast has not been graded. It cannot be: the period it names has not been published yet. When it is, the verdict appears here — pass or miss — and nothing on this page changes.

03 / PROVENANCE

VINTAGE ID0c1daff8-eb85-4fe6-8f56-9e1e8e5abd1c

ARENAhousing_us

SERIESMOUNTAIN

TARGET PERIOD2026-11-01

LOCKED AT2026-08-05T21:42:36.98207+00:00

MODELrandom_walk

MODEL SPEC1.1

MODEL SELECTION425 observations >= 60

POINT STATISTICmedian

FIT WINDOW425 observations, 1991-01-01 → 2026-05-01

ARCHIVE AS OF2026-08-05

COMMIT SHAa3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db

RUN MANIFEST5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b

PUBLISHER VINTAGES THIS FORECAST WAS BUILT FROM

Every input the reconstruction used, with the time the publisher released it. The forward-lock check reads these back from the record and fails the run if any of them postdates the lock above — that is what makes "locked before the outcome existed" a checked statement rather than a claim.

INPUT	PUBLISHER RELEASE TIME
observations:MOUNTAIN@2026-08-05	2026-08-05T00:00:00Z

CONTENT DIGEST

729bb33f83b65f245829b012985331ffa515f083bf678f8afd32a40cf38ed607

SHA-256 over the payload serialized with object keys sorted lexicographically at every depth and no whitespace, computed when this page was built. It is not stored on the row, and it is not the commitment: the commitment is the append-only row and the lock timestamp the database assigned to it. Fetch the same payload from /v1/vintages and repeat this to check it.

04 / THE LOCKED PAYLOAD, VERBATIM

{
  "as_of": "2026-08-05",
  "model": "random_walk",
  "interval": {
    "label": "95%",
    "lower": 582.433430684414,
    "upper": 634.5009551833905,
    "method": "ma_representation",
    "log_variance": 0.000477126780753875
  },
  "base_value": 607.91,
  "commit_sha": "a3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db",
  "fit_window": {
    "last_period": "2026-05-01",
    "first_period": "1991-01-01",
    "observations": 425
  },
  "model_role": "benchmark",
  "base_period": "2026-05-01",
  "inputs_digest": "93d9f4715632b7059a7a7bd06e570fec",
  "forecast_value": 607.9099999999997,
  "horizon_months": 6,
  "forecast_inputs": [
    {
      "ref": "observations:MOUNTAIN@2026-08-05",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "point_statistic": "median",
  "run_manifest_id": "5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b",
  "model_spec_version": "1.1",
  "cycle_inputs_digest": "041364cd94dc7dc17c6f07a1501ac77b",
  "series_inputs_digest": "485abab05eab93db77dca122ec15bc07",
  "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
}

GET /v1/vintages/0c1daff8-eb85-4fe6-8f56-9e1e8e5abd1c

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.VINTAGE 0c1daff8 · WRITE-ONCE · NOT YET GRADED