SCORECARDARENASDISCOVERYFOUNDATIONSFOR AGENTS

← HOUSING / USVINTAGE 43a9122ePENDING

United States · 12M

On 5 August 2026 we predicted United States house prices would be 2.68% higher by May 2027.

Our stated range was 427.869 to 482.332 — if the method works as intended, the true figure lands inside it about 95% of the time. Verdict due the first FHFA release covering May 2027, when the official figure is published. It has not been graded yet, and nothing on this page can change what was written above.

01 / WHAT WAS LOCKED

FORECAST · INDEX LEVEL454.285

CHANGE FROM BASE+2.68%

95% INTERVAL427.869 … 482.332

BASE — LAST FIGURE PUBLISHED BEFORE THE LOCK442.420 · 2026-05-01

TARGET PERIOD2027-05-01

LOCKED AT — TIMESTAMP ASSIGNED BY THE DATABASE2026-08-05T09:41:10.195421+00:00

02 / WHEN THIS GETS ITS VERDICT

This forecast is graded against the FIRST figure the publisher releases for May 2027 — the number the market actually saw — and never against a later revision. That rule was fixed on 2026-08-03, before this forecast existed.

Headline grade (first_print): the earliest publisher vintage at or after the target period. Available roughly two months after the period ends, on the publisher's schedule, not ours.

Companion grade (settled_t_plus_12): the value as published twelve months after the target period, which measures how much the first figure was revised. Available roughly fourteen months after. Both definitions were committed before any grade existed under either.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This forecast has not been graded. It cannot be: the period it names has not been published yet. When it is, the verdict appears here — pass or miss — and nothing on this page changes.

03 / PROVENANCE

VINTAGE ID43a9122e-7699-4d1e-9e6c-2d3a29d8035f

ARENAhousing_us

SERIESUS_NATIONAL

TARGET PERIOD2027-05-01

LOCKED AT2026-08-05T09:41:10.195421+00:00

MODELar12_logdiff

MODEL SPEC1.1

MODEL SELECTION425 observations >= 60

POINT STATISTICmedian

FIT WINDOW425 observations, 1991-01-01 → 2026-05-01

ARCHIVE AS OF2026-08-05

COMMIT SHAe889a572a47841d746697470330446ec7ffc37a4

RUN MANIFESTc3189224-bb53-4a34-8817-e827a27978d9

PUBLISHER VINTAGES THIS FORECAST WAS BUILT FROM

Every input the reconstruction used, with the time the publisher released it. The forward-lock check reads these back from the record and fails the run if any of them postdates the lock above — that is what makes "locked before the outcome existed" a checked statement rather than a claim.

INPUT	PUBLISHER RELEASE TIME
observations:US_NATIONAL@2026-08-05	2026-08-05T00:00:00Z

CONTENT DIGEST

4bd2b66567879a8eadf04098ab948c29c78ea2204282adee46d8c4ffb46ed617

SHA-256 over the payload serialized with object keys sorted lexicographically at every depth and no whitespace, computed when this page was built. It is not stored on the row, and it is not the commitment: the commitment is the append-only row and the lock timestamp the database assigned to it. Fetch the same payload from /v1/vintages and repeat this to check it.

04 / THE LOCKED PAYLOAD, VERBATIM

{
  "as_of": "2026-08-05",
  "model": "ar12_logdiff",
  "interval": {
    "label": "95%",
    "lower": 427.86859066758535,
    "upper": 482.3316645499966,
    "method": "ma_representation",
    "log_variance": 0.0009342701030284981
  },
  "base_value": 442.42,
  "commit_sha": "e889a572a47841d746697470330446ec7ffc37a4",
  "fit_window": {
    "last_period": "2026-05-01",
    "first_period": "1991-01-01",
    "observations": 425
  },
  "base_period": "2026-05-01",
  "forecast_value": 454.2846789683288,
  "horizon_months": 12,
  "forecast_inputs": [
    {
      "ref": "observations:US_NATIONAL@2026-08-05",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "point_statistic": "median",
  "run_manifest_id": "c3189224-bb53-4a34-8817-e827a27978d9",
  "model_spec_version": "1.1",
  "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
}

GET /v1/vintages/43a9122e-7699-4d1e-9e6c-2d3a29d8035f

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.VINTAGE 43a9122e · WRITE-ONCE · NOT YET GRADED