 SCORECARD ARENAS DISCOVERY FOUNDATIONS FOR AGENTS 

 SAMPLE Payloads below are fixtures from the sample series. Shapes are real; values are not graded output. 

06 / FOR AGENTS

The JSON behind a page is the page.

No summary layer. No marketing surface. An agent reading /v1 sees the identical ledger a human reads, at the same anchors, with the same misses in it.

BASE https://theonelab.ai/v1

SCHEMA schema.org Dataset · Claim

ANCHORS #vintage-{id} · stable

MCP mcp.theonelab.ai

01 / REST SURFACE

GET /v1/vintages Every locked forecast, paged, filterable by arena, grade and issue year.

{
  "sample": true,
  "count": 24,
  "next": "?after=qnt-2024-09-01",
  "vintages": [
    {
      "id": "hca-2026-06-01/tor",
      "arena": "housing-ca",
      "forecast_pct": 3.84,
      "grade": "pending",
      "resolves_at": "2027-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": "hca-2025-06-01/calgary",
      "arena": "housing-ca",
      "forecast_pct": 5.1,
      "realized_pct": 1.62,
      "error_pp": -3.48,
      "grade": "miss"
    }
  ]
}

GET /v1/vintages/{id} One forecast’s full life: issue, lock hash, realization, grade arithmetic, limitations.

{
  "id": "hca-2025-06-01/calgary",
  "sample": true,
  "locked_at": "2025-06-01T09:00:04Z",
  "lock_sha256": "9f2c…41ab",
  "forecast_pct": 5.1,
  "interval_80": [
    1.9,
    8.3
  ],
  "realized_pct": 1.62,
  "error_pp": -3.48,
  "inside_interval": false,
  "grade": "miss",
  "source": {
    "publisher": "Statistics Canada",
    "series": "18-10-0205-01"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "L-01 revision window",
    "L-02 metro coverage",
    "L-03 regime break"
  ]
}

GET /v1/calibration Reliability curves and interval coverage per arena and horizon.

{
  "sample": true,
  "arena": "housing-ca",
  "horizon_months": 12,
  "n_graded": 11,
  "reliability": [
    [
      10,
      6
    ],
    [
      30,
      33
    ],
    [
      50,
      55
    ],
    [
      70,
      76
    ],
    [
      90,
      92
    ]
  ],
  "interval_coverage_80": 0.818,
  "mean_abs_error_pp": 1.42
}

GET /v1/scorecard Arena-level summary with the backtest / forward separation preserved as structure.

{
  "sample": true,
  "separation": {
    "backtest": "excluded_from_track_record",
    "forward": "graded"
  },
  "forward": [
    {
      "arena": "housing-ca",
      "issued": 19,
      "graded": 11,
      "misses": 2
    },
    {
      "arena": "financial-stability",
      "issued": 7,
      "graded": 3,
      "summary": "insufficient_data"
    }
  ]
}

AUTH · none for reads · 60 req/min unauthenticated

PAGING · cursor · ?after=<vintage_id>

STABILITY · additive changes only; removals require a constitution amendment

02 / MCP SERVER

TOOLS

list_vintages(arena?, grade?, year?) Returns the ledger slice an agent would see on the scorecard page.

get_vintage(id) Full life of one forecast, including the lock digest and limitations.

get_grade(id) Grade arithmetic only — realized, forecast, error, interval test.

get_manifest(id) The signed manifest to re-hash locally and verify the lock.

get_calibration(arena) Reliability curve, coverage, and the count behind each figure.

CONNECT

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "theonelab": {
      "url": "https://mcp.theonelab.ai/sse",
      "auth": "none"
    }
  }
}

03 / CALIBRATION CREDENTIAL

A signed, machine-readable track record. An agent can verify the signature, re-derive every figure from the vintage list, and refuse the claim if the arithmetic disagrees.

credential/housing-ca/2026-08-01

ED25519 · VERIFIED

ARENA housing-ca

GRADED 11

MISSES 2

COVERAGE 80% 81.8%

{
  "@context": "https://theonelab.ai/schema/credential/v1",
  "id": "credential/housing-ca/2026-08-01",
  "sample": true,
  "subject": {
    "arena": "housing-ca",
    "window": [
      "2025-01-01",
      "2026-08-01"
    ]
  },
  "record": {
    "issued": 19,
    "graded": 11,
    "misses": 2,
    "pending": 8,
    "mean_abs_error_pp": 1.42,
    "interval_coverage_80": 0.818
  },
  "derivation": "recomputable from /v1/vintages?arena=housing-ca",
  "excludes": [
    "backtest_1980_2024"
  ],
  "signature": {
    "alg": "ed25519",
    "key": "did:web:theonelab.ai#k1",
    "value": "z3Jf…9Qa2"
  }
}

04 / MANIFESTS

/llms.txt What this site is, which paths are canonical, and what must not be paraphrased. TEXT /.well-known/onelab.json Institution manifest: arenas, cadences, constitution version, public keys. JSON /v1/vintages.jsonl The whole ledger as one newline-delimited file. Re-hashable, diffable. JSONL /sitemap-vintages.xml Every vintage anchor, with lastmod set to the grading timestamp. XML

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so. API v1 · SAMPLE