SCORECARDARENASDISCOVERYFOUNDATIONSFOR AGENTS

06 / FOR AGENTS

The JSON behind a page is the page.

An autonomous research organism has to be checkable by the readers who check at scale. That is what this surface is for.

No summary layer. No marketing surface. An agent reading /v1 sees the identical ledger a human reads, at the same anchors, with the same misses in it.

BASEhttps://api.theonelab.ai/v1

SCHEMAschema.org Dataset · Claim · Observation

ANCHORS/vintages/{uuid} · stable

MCPmcp.theonelab.ai

01 / REST SURFACE

GET /v1/vintagesEvery locked forecast with its record class; Canada hold records are identified as historical and excluded from the current report.

{
  "@context": "https://schema.org",
  "@type": "Dataset",
  "name": "The One Lab — locked vintages",
  "served_by": {
    "build": "<deploy commit>"
  },
  "count": 174,
  "removed_fields": [
    {
      "field": "issued_at",
      "why": "the record holds one timestamp per lock, locked_at"
    },
    {
      "field": "resolution_at",
      "why": "no publication date exists on the row; see expected_verdict"
    },
    {
      "field": "status: 'published'",
      "why": "everything locked is published by constitution"
    },
    {
      "field": "metric / value / unit",
      "why": "score is emitted whole; selecting a headline metric would be an unversioned grader"
    }
  ],
  "items": [
    {
      "@type": "Claim",
      "identifier": "07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812",
      "anchor": "https://theonelab.ai/vintages/07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812#vintage-07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812",
      "arena": "housing_us",
      "record_class": "forward_governed_record",
      "current_product_relation": "governed_forecast_ledger",
      "series": "WEST_SOUTH_CENTRAL",
      "period": "2027-05-01",
      "locked_at": "2026-08-05T21:42:42.187887+00:00",
      "status": "pending",
      "expected_verdict": {
        "basis": "JUL 2027",
        "approximate": true,
        "lag_months": 2,
        "source": "methodology",
        "note": "A rule, not a date the record holds. The target period plus the arena's configured publication lag; the exact day is the publisher's to set. Recompute it from period and lag_months rather than treating basis as a commitment."
      },
      "payload": {
        "as_of": "2026-08-05",
        "model": "equal_weight_combination",
        "interval": {
          "label": "95%",
          "lower": 415.1058802411646,
          "upper": 442.1465041822636,
          "method": "ma_representation",
          "log_variance": 0.00025918390733883125
        },
        "base_value": 425.04,
        "commit_sha": "a3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db",
        "fit_window": {
          "last_period": "2026-05-01",
          "first_period": "1991-01-01",
          "observations": 425
        },
        "model_role": "combination",
        "base_period": "2026-05-01",
        "inputs_digest": "5f7ba08c3c66088ef90a8f6216f4ae68",
        "forecast_value": 428.41290108274313,
        "horizon_months": 12,
        "forecast_inputs": [
          {
            "ref": "observations:WEST_SOUTH_CENTRAL@2026-08-05",
            "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
          }
        ],
        "point_statistic": "median",
        "run_manifest_id": "5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b",
        "model_spec_version": "1.1",
        "cycle_inputs_digest": "041364cd94dc7dc17c6f07a1501ac77b",
        "series_inputs_digest": "19e48caf6b0a1f123fd41c2d36b5b0e5",
        "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
      },
      "grades": []
    },
    "… 173 more; this example prints 1 of 174"
  ]
}

GET /v1/vintages/{id}One forecast's full life, record class, current-product relation, locked payload, expected verdict, and any grades.

{
  "@context": "https://schema.org",
  "served_by": {
    "build": "<deploy commit>"
  },
  "@type": "Claim",
  "identifier": "07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812",
  "anchor": "https://theonelab.ai/vintages/07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812#vintage-07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812",
  "arena": "housing_us",
  "record_class": "forward_governed_record",
  "current_product_relation": "governed_forecast_ledger",
  "series": "WEST_SOUTH_CENTRAL",
  "period": "2027-05-01",
  "locked_at": "2026-08-05T21:42:42.187887+00:00",
  "status": "pending",
  "expected_verdict": {
    "basis": "JUL 2027",
    "approximate": true,
    "lag_months": 2,
    "source": "methodology",
    "note": "A rule, not a date the record holds. The target period plus the arena's configured publication lag; the exact day is the publisher's to set. Recompute it from period and lag_months rather than treating basis as a commitment."
  },
  "payload": {
    "as_of": "2026-08-05",
    "model": "equal_weight_combination",
    "interval": {
      "label": "95%",
      "lower": 415.1058802411646,
      "upper": 442.1465041822636,
      "method": "ma_representation",
      "log_variance": 0.00025918390733883125
    },
    "base_value": 425.04,
    "commit_sha": "a3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db",
    "fit_window": {
      "last_period": "2026-05-01",
      "first_period": "1991-01-01",
      "observations": 425
    },
    "model_role": "combination",
    "base_period": "2026-05-01",
    "inputs_digest": "5f7ba08c3c66088ef90a8f6216f4ae68",
    "forecast_value": 428.41290108274313,
    "horizon_months": 12,
    "forecast_inputs": [
      {
        "ref": "observations:WEST_SOUTH_CENTRAL@2026-08-05",
        "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
      }
    ],
    "point_statistic": "median",
    "run_manifest_id": "5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b",
    "model_spec_version": "1.1",
    "cycle_inputs_digest": "041364cd94dc7dc17c6f07a1501ac77b",
    "series_inputs_digest": "19e48caf6b0a1f123fd41c2d36b5b0e5",
    "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
  },
  "grades": []
}

GET /v1/vintages.jsonlThe whole ledger, one record per line. x-onelab-count states the line count.

{"@type":"Claim","identifier":"07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812","anchor":"https://theonelab.ai/vintages/07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812#vintage-07524582-cd5f-4cf8-b037-cda99fba3812","arena":"housing_us","record_class":"forward_governed_record","current_product_relation":"governed_forecast_ledger","series":"WEST_SOUTH_CENTRAL","period":"2027-05-01","locked_at":"2026-08-05T21:42:42.187887+00:00","status":"pending","expected_verdict":{"basis":"JUL 2027","approximate":true,"lag_months":2,"source":"methodology","note":"A rule, not a date the record holds. The target period plus the arena's configured publication lag; the exact day is the publisher's to set. Recompute it from period and lag_months rather than treating basis as a commitment."},"payload":{"as_of":"2026-08-05","model":"equal_weight_combination","interval":{"label":"95%","lower":415.1058802411646,"upper":442.1465041822636,"method":"ma_representation","log_variance":0.00025918390733883125},"base_value":425.04,"commit_sha":"a3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db","fit_window":{"last_period":"2026-05-01","first_period":"1991-01-01","observations":425},"model_role":"combination","base_period":"2026-05-01","inputs_digest":"5f7ba08c3c66088ef90a8f6216f4ae68","forecast_value":428.41290108274313,"horizon_months":12,"forecast_inputs":[{"ref":"observations:WEST_SOUTH_CENTRAL@2026-08-05","as_of":"2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"}],"point_statistic":"median","run_manifest_id":"5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b","model_spec_version":"1.1","cycle_inputs_digest":"041364cd94dc7dc17c6f07a1501ac77b","series_inputs_digest":"19e48caf6b0a1f123fd41c2d36b5b0e5","model_selection_reason":"425 observations >= 60"},"grades":[]}
… 173 more line(s); x-onelab-count: 174

GET /v1/calibrationReliability curves per arena and horizon — refuses over a zero denominator.

{
  "error": "insufficient data",
  "detail": "no graded forecast exists yet; a reliability curve over 0 grades is not a curve",
  "graded": 0
}

AUTH · none for reads · 60 req/min unauthenticated
PAGING · cursor · ?after=<vintage_id>
STABILITY · additive changes only; removals require a constitution amendment

02 / MCP SERVER

TOOLS

list_vintages(arena?, status?)The ledger slice an agent would see on the scorecard, including record_class and current_product_relation.

get_grade(id)The grader's score object whole, with its verdict and version.

get_manifest(id)The locked payload and its digest, to re-hash locally against the record.

CONNECT

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "theonelab": {
      "url": "https://mcp.theonelab.ai/sse",
      "auth": "none"
    }
  }
}

04 / MANIFESTS

/llms.txtWhat this site is, which paths are canonical, and what must not be paraphrased. Built from the record on every deploy.LIVE /.well-known/onelab.jsonMachine manifest: identity, the method loop, what the record holds, and where the API and sitemaps are. No signing keys — nothing here is signed.LIVE /v1/vintages.jsonlThe whole ledger as one newline-delimited file. Re-hashable, diffable. x-onelab-count states the line count; a truncated read is a 502, never a short 200.LIVE /sitemap-vintages.xmlEvery vintage anchor, with lastmod set to the lock timestamp.LIVE

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.API v1 · SERVES THE RECORD