United States Housing Intelligence

{
  "terminal": "housing-intelligence.us.v1",
  "status": "EMPTY_STATE_NO_REPORT_ELIGIBLE_INPUTS",
  "boundary": {
    "gate1": "open_unchanged",
    "alfred": {
      "captureAllowed": false,
      "modelEligible": false,
      "reportEligible": false,
      "status": "restricted_pending_review"
    },
    "nativeFhfa": {
      "captureNotBefore": "2026-09-29",
      "afterFirstCapture": "capture_only_pending_track_o_source_supersession_ruling",
      "automaticModelOrReportActivation": false
    },
    "forecastInterfaces": "inert",
    "sourceSupersessionAction": "none_by_this_surface",
    "forecastSemanticChangeByThisSurface": false
  },
  "fhfaCaptureReadiness": {
    "interfaceVersion": "housing-us.fhfa-native-readiness.v1",
    "status": "READY_BUT_TIME_GATED_ZERO_CAPTURES",
    "captureNotBefore": "2026-09-29",
    "currentCaptureCountRequired": 0,
    "releaseIdentity": [
      "official release URL",
      "publication date/time",
      "retrieval time",
      "release title",
      "monthly or quarterly release family"
    ],
    "artifactIdentity": [
      "exact downloadable URL",
      "HTTP validators",
      "wire SHA-256",
      "byte length",
      "media type",
      "filename"
    ],
    "indexIdentity": [
      "index family",
      "purchase-only/all-transactions/expanded-data",
      "frequency",
      "seasonal adjustment",
      "geography type/code/name",
      "reference period",
      "index base/methodology version"
    ],
    "appendOnlyRevisionRule": "First registered print and every later changed artifact are separate receipts and observations; no overwrite or reconstructed historical first print.",
    "dispatchRefusals": [
      "before-boundary time",
      "release URL or publication identity drift",
      "artifact hash/length mismatch",
      "index-family ambiguity",
      "geography or seasonal-adjustment mismatch",
      "missing first-print evidence",
      "ALFRED dependency",
      "non-zero model/report eligibility"
    ],
    "afterCapture": {
      "captureEligible": true,
      "reportEligible": false,
      "modelEligible": false,
      "forecastEligible": false,
      "trackORulingRequired": true
    }
  },
  "fhfaPostCaptureReadback": {
    "interfaceVersion": "housing-us.fhfa-post-capture-readback.v1",
    "required": [
      "workflow and job IDs",
      "exact checkout commit",
      "release publication identity",
      "request URL/body hash",
      "response wire SHA-256 and bytes",
      "retrieval timestamp",
      "exact index/vector/geography identities",
      "observation inserts and duplicates",
      "source-use classification",
      "replay inserts zero"
    ],
    "invariantQueries": [
      "native source count increment is exactly one registered source identity or documented expected fan-out",
      "ALFRED restricted count and flags unchanged",
      "native report/model/forecast eligibility all false",
      "Quant forecasts/grades and AION decisions unchanged",
      "source supersessions unchanged",
      "GATE-1 open"
    ],
    "failureRule": "Preserve the failed receipt and stop; do not retry blindly."
  },
  "modules": [
    {
      "id": "executive_decision_brief",
      "title": "Executive decision brief",
      "status": "closed_no_eligible_evidence",
      "decisionSupported": "Summarize a United States housing regime only after cross-module evidence is registered and eligible.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "At least one report-eligible public-data module and a registered cross-module decision rule."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "us-alfred-existing-restricted",
          "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / ALFRED",
          "product": "Existing ALFRED-derived FHFA evidence",
          "officialUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/alfred.html",
          "fields": [
            "preserved historical records only"
          ],
          "geography": "Existing registered United States and Census-division records",
          "frequency": "existing records only; no new capture",
          "vintageSemantics": "Existing records remain append-only and restricted pending written permission or documented lawful basis.",
          "eligibility": "prohibited",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "No ALFRED-derived record may enter a model, report calculation or new commercial capture.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        },
        {
          "id": "us-fhfa-native-clean-forward",
          "publisher": "Federal Housing Finance Agency",
          "product": "Native House Price Index release files",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi",
          "fields": [
            "exact HPI identity",
            "geography",
            "index value",
            "reference period",
            "release identity",
            "revision identity"
          ],
          "geography": "Only geographies published for the exact registered index",
          "frequency": "publisher release cadence",
          "vintageSemantics": "Clean-forward artifact, publication time, retrieval time and hash. First print and later revisions remain separate.",
          "eligibility": "capture_only_after_boundary",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "No capture before 2026-09-29. After the first capture it remains capture-only until Track O rules on source supersession.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "regime_classification",
      "title": "Regime classification",
      "status": "closed_no_eligible_evidence",
      "decisionSupported": "Classify expansion, deceleration, correction, liquidity freeze or recovery without substituting a single price index for the market.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "Aligned price, supply, rental, labour, income, credit and demographic evidence with exact geography and vintage contracts."
      ],
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "supply_development",
      "title": "Supply and development",
      "status": "contract_only",
      "decisionSupported": "Separate authorized units, starts, units under construction and completions at the geographies each survey can support.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "Registered Census/HUD captures, revisions, geography versions and report-eligible evidence objects."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "us-census-bps",
          "publisher": "United States Census Bureau",
          "product": "Building Permits Survey",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html",
          "fields": [
            "housing units authorized",
            "structure type",
            "permit-issuing geography"
          ],
          "geography": "United States, region, division, state, CBSA, county and permit-issuing place as published",
          "frequency": "monthly, year-to-date and annual depending on file",
          "vintageSemantics": "Preliminary, revised monthly and final annual files are separate artifacts; geography definitions travel with each file.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "Permits are authorizations, not starts or completions. Local coverage reflects permit-issuing areas and publisher methodology.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        },
        {
          "id": "us-census-hud-nrc",
          "publisher": "United States Census Bureau / HUD",
          "product": "New Residential Construction / Survey of Construction",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/index.html",
          "fields": [
            "authorized but not started",
            "starts",
            "under construction",
            "completions"
          ],
          "geography": "United States and Census regions for monthly published estimates",
          "frequency": "monthly",
          "vintageSemantics": "Preliminary estimates and each revision are separate artifacts; do not backfill a first print from a revised file.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "The monthly survey does not support state or local starts and completions; permits are the only smaller-area series in this family.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "rental_multifamily",
      "title": "Rental and multifamily",
      "status": "contract_only",
      "decisionSupported": "Measure rental vacancy and purpose-built multifamily supply without presenting asking-rent estimates as occupied-stock rent.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "Exact Census/HUD rental measure contracts, compatible geography, revision semantics and registered evidence."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "us-census-hvs",
          "publisher": "United States Census Bureau",
          "product": "Housing Vacancies and Homeownership",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/",
          "fields": [
            "rental vacancy",
            "homeowner vacancy",
            "homeownership"
          ],
          "geography": "Only national, regional and published subnational estimates supported by the survey",
          "frequency": "quarterly and annual tables",
          "vintageSemantics": "Each release and revision is retained separately with sampling-error metadata.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "Sampling error and limited local geography prevent unsupported city-level rental claims.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mortgage_household_credit",
      "title": "Mortgage and household credit",
      "status": "contract_only",
      "decisionSupported": "Analyze mortgage origination and denial patterns while preserving privacy modifications and publication vintages.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "Registered HMDA snapshot/dynamic-file identity, privacy treatment, revision policy and geography mapping."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "us-hmda-publication",
          "publisher": "FFIEC / Consumer Financial Protection Bureau",
          "product": "HMDA public modified Loan/Application Register datasets",
          "officialUrl": "https://ffiec.cfpb.gov/data-publication/",
          "fields": [
            "loan purpose",
            "action taken",
            "loan amount",
            "property geography",
            "applicant fields as publicly modified"
          ],
          "geography": "Published census tract, county, MSA/MD, state and national fields",
          "frequency": "annual snapshots; dynamic national data update weekly",
          "vintageSemantics": "Dynamic, snapshot, one-year and three-year frozen datasets are different products and may not be silently mixed.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "Public files are privacy-modified application/origination data, not servicing performance, arrears or borrower-level payment-reset records.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "affordability_demographics",
      "title": "Affordability and demographics",
      "status": "contract_only",
      "decisionSupported": "Combine local income, employment and population only at compatible geography and reference periods.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "Registered Census/ACS, BLS and BEA series with boundary crosswalks; local taxes, insurance and housing-cost inputs remain absent."
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "us-bls-laus",
          "publisher": "United States Bureau of Labor Statistics",
          "product": "Local Area Unemployment Statistics",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.bls.gov/lau/",
          "fields": [
            "employment",
            "unemployment",
            "labour force",
            "unemployment rate"
          ],
          "geography": "States, metropolitan areas, counties and other published labour-market areas",
          "frequency": "monthly and annual",
          "vintageSemantics": "Preliminary and revised estimates remain separate; the 2025 geography-definition change is part of identity.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "Area-definition changes require explicit crosswalks; national sensitivity may not be scaled into cities.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        },
        {
          "id": "us-bea-regional-income",
          "publisher": "United States Bureau of Economic Analysis",
          "product": "Regional personal income and employment",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income-county-metro-and-other-areas",
          "fields": [
            "personal income",
            "per-capita personal income",
            "earnings",
            "employment"
          ],
          "geography": "County, metropolitan and other published regional areas",
          "frequency": "annual and quarterly depending on table",
          "vintageSemantics": "Each release, annual update and revision is retained separately with table and geography identity.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "Regional income is not household disposable income or a city-level mortgage qualification measure without an exact mapping.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        },
        {
          "id": "us-census-acs-housing-income",
          "publisher": "United States Census Bureau",
          "product": "American Community Survey detailed and subject tables",
          "officialUrl": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/data.html",
          "fields": [
            "household income",
            "tenure",
            "household size",
            "selected housing costs",
            "population characteristics"
          ],
          "geography": "Only published ACS geographies with survey-year boundary and estimate-product identity",
          "frequency": "annual one-year and five-year products, which may not be silently mixed",
          "vintageSemantics": "Survey year, release, table/variable identity, universe, estimate type and margin of error are part of the evidence identity.",
          "eligibility": "contract_not_registered",
          "captureAllowed": false,
          "limitation": "Margins of error and survey universes remain visible; ACS estimates are not current property tax, insurance, utility or mortgage qualification facts.",
          "modelEligible": false,
          "reportEligible": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "stakeholder_implications",
      "title": "Stakeholder implications",
      "status": "closed_no_eligible_evidence",
      "decisionSupported": "Produce lender, government and investor implications only from registered module evidence.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "At least two live modules and a registered implication rule; co-movement cannot be rendered as a causal effect."
      ],
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "evidence_appendix",
      "title": "Evidence appendix",
      "status": "closed_no_eligible_evidence",
      "decisionSupported": "Expose source, artifact, hash, vintage, calculation and limitation for every future number.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "No United States source is currently report-eligible for this product surface."
      ],
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "forecast_scorecard",
      "title": "Forecast scorecard",
      "status": "governance_gated",
      "decisionSupported": "Evaluate future institutionally eligible forecasts after authorization and maturity.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "GATE-1 closure, lawful eligible inputs, Track O source ruling, issued vintages and realized outcomes."
      ],
      "sources": []
    },
    {
      "id": "scenario_laboratory",
      "title": "Scenario laboratory",
      "status": "governance_gated",
      "decisionSupported": "Recompute explicit user-supplied scenarios without rewriting a base forecast.",
      "missingBeforeLive": [
        "Registered inputs and approved scenario semantics; every parameter must be labelled sourced, estimated, calibrated or assumed."
      ],
      "sources": []
    }
  ]
}