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← HOUSING / USVINTAGE 2f52c80fPENDING

East South Central · 12M

On 5 August 2026 we predicted East South Central house prices would be 2.89% higher by May 2027.

Our stated range was 415.687 to 452.395 — if the method works as intended, the true figure lands inside it about 95% of the time. Verdict due the first FHFA release covering May 2027, when the official figure is published. It has not been graded yet, and nothing on this page can change what was written above.

01 / WHAT WAS LOCKED

FORECAST · INDEX LEVEL433.653

CHANGE FROM BASE+2.89%

95% INTERVAL415.687 … 452.395

BASE — LAST FIGURE PUBLISHED BEFORE THE LOCK421.460 · 2026-05-01

TARGET PERIOD2027-05-01

LOCKED AT — TIMESTAMP ASSIGNED BY THE DATABASE2026-08-05T21:42:35.78358+00:00

02 / WHEN THIS GETS ITS VERDICT

This forecast is graded against the FIRST figure the publisher releases for May 2027 — the number the market actually saw — and never against a later revision. That rule was fixed on 2026-08-03, before this forecast existed.

Headline grade (first_print): the earliest publisher vintage at or after the target period. Available roughly two months after the period ends, on the publisher's schedule, not ours.

Companion grade (settled_t_plus_12): the value as published twelve months after the target period, which measures how much the first figure was revised. Available roughly fourteen months after. Both definitions were committed before any grade existed under either.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This forecast has not been graded. It cannot be: the period it names has not been published yet. When it is, the verdict appears here — pass or miss — and nothing on this page changes.

03 / PROVENANCE

VINTAGE ID2f52c80f-62d0-4bb0-bd2f-adde20c03882

ARENAhousing_us

SERIESEAST_SOUTH_CENTRAL

TARGET PERIOD2027-05-01

LOCKED AT2026-08-05T21:42:35.78358+00:00

MODELyoy_drift_rw

MODEL SPEC1.1

MODEL SELECTION425 observations >= 60

POINT STATISTICmedian

FIT WINDOW425 observations, 1991-01-01 → 2026-05-01

ARCHIVE AS OF2026-08-05

COMMIT SHAa3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db

RUN MANIFEST5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b

PUBLISHER VINTAGES THIS FORECAST WAS BUILT FROM

Every input the reconstruction used, with the time the publisher released it. The forward-lock check reads these back from the record and fails the run if any of them postdates the lock above — that is what makes "locked before the outcome existed" a checked statement rather than a claim.

INPUT	PUBLISHER RELEASE TIME
observations:EAST_SOUTH_CENTRAL@2026-08-05	2026-08-05T00:00:00Z

CONTENT DIGEST

45142cd132aa03d4bb5b3b101aca624fa3bcc23d3e9b110b803743acccb95866

SHA-256 over the payload serialized with object keys sorted lexicographically at every depth and no whitespace, computed when this page was built. It is not stored on the row, and it is not the commitment: the commitment is the append-only row and the lock timestamp the database assigned to it. Fetch the same payload from /v1/vintages and repeat this to check it.

04 / THE LOCKED PAYLOAD, VERBATIM

{
  "as_of": "2026-08-05",
  "model": "yoy_drift_rw",
  "interval": {
    "label": "95%",
    "lower": 415.6872353823471,
    "upper": 452.3948591314262,
    "method": "ma_representation",
    "log_variance": 0.0004660289250742473
  },
  "base_value": 421.46,
  "commit_sha": "a3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db",
  "fit_window": {
    "last_period": "2026-05-01",
    "first_period": "1991-01-01",
    "observations": 425
  },
  "model_role": "benchmark",
  "base_period": "2026-05-01",
  "inputs_digest": "ca65a3f17a571b05ad5f3c3a00fcb61f",
  "forecast_value": 433.65281999951173,
  "horizon_months": 12,
  "forecast_inputs": [
    {
      "ref": "observations:EAST_SOUTH_CENTRAL@2026-08-05",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "point_statistic": "median",
  "run_manifest_id": "5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b",
  "model_spec_version": "1.1",
  "cycle_inputs_digest": "041364cd94dc7dc17c6f07a1501ac77b",
  "series_inputs_digest": "e158f7427a25cee4f7237983c2bb0ef2",
  "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
}

GET /v1/vintages/2f52c80f-62d0-4bb0-bd2f-adde20c03882

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.VINTAGE 2f52c80f · WRITE-ONCE · NOT YET GRADED