SCORECARDARENASDISCOVERYFOUNDATIONSFOR AGENTS

← HOUSING / USVINTAGE 4f6efddfPENDING

Mountain · 12M

On 5 August 2026 we predicted Mountain house prices would be 3.11% higher by May 2027.

Our stated range was 571.447 to 687.599 — if the method works as intended, the true figure lands inside it about 95% of the time. Verdict due the first FHFA release covering May 2027, when the official figure is published. It has not been graded yet, and nothing on this page can change what was written above.

01 / WHAT WAS LOCKED

FORECAST · INDEX LEVEL626.838

CHANGE FROM BASE+3.11%

95% INTERVAL571.447 … 687.599

BASE — LAST FIGURE PUBLISHED BEFORE THE LOCK607.910 · 2026-05-01

TARGET PERIOD2027-05-01

LOCKED AT — TIMESTAMP ASSIGNED BY THE DATABASE2026-08-05T09:41:09.208387+00:00

02 / WHEN THIS GETS ITS VERDICT

This forecast is graded against the FIRST figure the publisher releases for May 2027 — the number the market actually saw — and never against a later revision. That rule was fixed on 2026-08-03, before this forecast existed.

Headline grade (first_print): the earliest publisher vintage at or after the target period. Available roughly two months after the period ends, on the publisher's schedule, not ours.

Companion grade (settled_t_plus_12): the value as published twelve months after the target period, which measures how much the first figure was revised. Available roughly fourteen months after. Both definitions were committed before any grade existed under either.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This forecast has not been graded. It cannot be: the period it names has not been published yet. When it is, the verdict appears here — pass or miss — and nothing on this page changes.

03 / PROVENANCE

VINTAGE ID4f6efddf-a893-463b-ba6c-90222577e064

ARENAhousing_us

SERIESMOUNTAIN

TARGET PERIOD2027-05-01

LOCKED AT2026-08-05T09:41:09.208387+00:00

MODELar12_logdiff

MODEL SPEC1.1

MODEL SELECTION425 observations >= 60

POINT STATISTICmedian

FIT WINDOW425 observations, 1991-01-01 → 2026-05-01

ARCHIVE AS OF2026-08-05

COMMIT SHAe889a572a47841d746697470330446ec7ffc37a4

RUN MANIFESTc3189224-bb53-4a34-8817-e827a27978d9

PUBLISHER VINTAGES THIS FORECAST WAS BUILT FROM

Every input the reconstruction used, with the time the publisher released it. The forward-lock check reads these back from the record and fails the run if any of them postdates the lock above — that is what makes "locked before the outcome existed" a checked statement rather than a claim.

INPUT	PUBLISHER RELEASE TIME
observations:MOUNTAIN@2026-08-05	2026-08-05T00:00:00Z

CONTENT DIGEST

a097c3ffcc0dff2af5c29a0ef2f8832432dd3e37b1f2eb8f5f49f4f71279369f

SHA-256 over the payload serialized with object keys sorted lexicographically at every depth and no whitespace, computed when this page was built. It is not stored on the row, and it is not the commitment: the commitment is the append-only row and the lock timestamp the database assigned to it. Fetch the same payload from /v1/vintages and repeat this to check it.

04 / THE LOCKED PAYLOAD, VERBATIM

{
  "as_of": "2026-08-05",
  "model": "ar12_logdiff",
  "interval": {
    "label": "95%",
    "lower": 571.4465996903717,
    "upper": 687.5985932317042,
    "method": "ma_representation",
    "log_variance": 0.0022281672259585857
  },
  "base_value": 607.91,
  "commit_sha": "e889a572a47841d746697470330446ec7ffc37a4",
  "fit_window": {
    "last_period": "2026-05-01",
    "first_period": "1991-01-01",
    "observations": 425
  },
  "base_period": "2026-05-01",
  "forecast_value": 626.8379998485576,
  "horizon_months": 12,
  "forecast_inputs": [
    {
      "ref": "observations:MOUNTAIN@2026-08-05",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "point_statistic": "median",
  "run_manifest_id": "c3189224-bb53-4a34-8817-e827a27978d9",
  "model_spec_version": "1.1",
  "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
}

GET /v1/vintages/4f6efddf-a893-463b-ba6c-90222577e064

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.VINTAGE 4f6efddf · WRITE-ONCE · NOT YET GRADED