SCORECARDARENASDISCOVERYFOUNDATIONSFOR AGENTS

← HOUSING / USVINTAGE 75e9f91aPENDING

United States · 3M

On 5 August 2026 we predicted United States house prices would be 0.41% higher by August 2026.

Our stated range was 439.085 to 449.453 — if the method works as intended, the true figure lands inside it about 95% of the time. Verdict due the first FHFA release covering August 2026, when the official figure is published. It has not been graded yet, and nothing on this page can change what was written above.

01 / WHAT WAS LOCKED

FORECAST · INDEX LEVEL444.239

CHANGE FROM BASE+0.41%

95% INTERVAL439.085 … 449.453

BASE — LAST FIGURE PUBLISHED BEFORE THE LOCK442.420 · 2026-05-01

TARGET PERIOD2026-08-01

LOCKED AT — TIMESTAMP ASSIGNED BY THE DATABASE2026-08-05T21:42:40.48219+00:00

02 / WHEN THIS GETS ITS VERDICT

This forecast is graded against the FIRST figure the publisher releases for August 2026 — the number the market actually saw — and never against a later revision. That rule was fixed on 2026-08-03, before this forecast existed.

Headline grade (first_print): the earliest publisher vintage at or after the target period. Available roughly two months after the period ends, on the publisher's schedule, not ours.

Companion grade (settled_t_plus_12): the value as published twelve months after the target period, which measures how much the first figure was revised. Available roughly fourteen months after. Both definitions were committed before any grade existed under either.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This forecast has not been graded. It cannot be: the period it names has not been published yet. When it is, the verdict appears here — pass or miss — and nothing on this page changes.

03 / PROVENANCE

VINTAGE ID75e9f91a-552b-49f3-99a7-b5866be7adf7

ARENAhousing_us

SERIESUS_NATIONAL

TARGET PERIOD2026-08-01

LOCKED AT2026-08-05T21:42:40.48219+00:00

MODELequal_weight_combination

MODEL SPEC1.1

MODEL SELECTION425 observations >= 60

POINT STATISTICmedian

FIT WINDOW425 observations, 1991-01-01 → 2026-05-01

ARCHIVE AS OF2026-08-05

COMMIT SHAa3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db

RUN MANIFEST5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b

PUBLISHER VINTAGES THIS FORECAST WAS BUILT FROM

Every input the reconstruction used, with the time the publisher released it. The forward-lock check reads these back from the record and fails the run if any of them postdates the lock above — that is what makes "locked before the outcome existed" a checked statement rather than a claim.

INPUT	PUBLISHER RELEASE TIME
observations:US_NATIONAL@2026-08-05	2026-08-05T00:00:00Z

CONTENT DIGEST

b4aa7e4399575dd83bffc5e5462190b7b63ae9f1238cb6e84e00bd71d5b7d1d0

SHA-256 over the payload serialized with object keys sorted lexicographically at every depth and no whitespace, computed when this page was built. It is not stored on the row, and it is not the commitment: the commitment is the append-only row and the lock timestamp the database assigned to it. Fetch the same payload from /v1/vintages and repeat this to check it.

04 / THE LOCKED PAYLOAD, VERBATIM

{
  "as_of": "2026-08-05",
  "model": "equal_weight_combination",
  "interval": {
    "label": "95%",
    "lower": 439.08542848889283,
    "upper": 449.453348943109,
    "method": "ma_representation",
    "log_variance": 0.00003544653450692572
  },
  "base_value": 442.42,
  "commit_sha": "a3653e378f5fd2deff42e777c335d0e8fb17e5db",
  "fit_window": {
    "last_period": "2026-05-01",
    "first_period": "1991-01-01",
    "observations": 425
  },
  "model_role": "combination",
  "base_period": "2026-05-01",
  "inputs_digest": "5f7ba08c3c66088ef90a8f6216f4ae68",
  "forecast_value": 444.2391431497824,
  "horizon_months": 3,
  "forecast_inputs": [
    {
      "ref": "observations:US_NATIONAL@2026-08-05",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "point_statistic": "median",
  "run_manifest_id": "5cfe1ebf-a852-4d46-86c7-dbdc53e71d6b",
  "model_spec_version": "1.1",
  "cycle_inputs_digest": "041364cd94dc7dc17c6f07a1501ac77b",
  "series_inputs_digest": "23cdb763a58ed30492dd8a9897451ece",
  "model_selection_reason": "425 observations >= 60"
}

GET /v1/vintages/75e9f91a-552b-49f3-99a7-b5866be7adf7

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.VINTAGE 75e9f91a · WRITE-ONCE · NOT YET GRADED