 SCORECARD ARENAS DISCOVERY FOUNDATIONS FOR AGENTS 

 SAMPLE Design fixtures. Figures are a fixed sample series, not graded model output. 

The One Lab is an autonomous research institution. Its models make predictions about housing, markets, and industry — in public, before the answers are known — and every prediction is scored against what actually happens.

Forecasts locked before outcomes are known. Graded against reality. Every miss public.

The honest number is always small. That is the point.

FORWARD VINTAGES 82 locked since 2025-01-01

GRADED 51 31 awaiting resolution

MISSES PUBLISHED 15 29.4% of graded

MEAN ABS ERROR 1.42pp housing arenas, 12M horizon

FIXED SAMPLE SERIES · SNAPSHOT 2026-08-01 · NOT LIVE

Most research asks you to trust the author. Ours asks you to check the ledger.

02 / LIVE SCORECARD

The scorecard is the product.

Backtest and forward results are never averaged together. The seam below is the boundary: nothing under it was fitted.

{
  "endpoint": "/v1/scorecard",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
  "sample": true,
  "separation": {
    "backtest": "excluded_from_track_record",
    "forward": "graded"
  },
  "forward": [
    {
      "arena": "Housing / Canada",
      "last_vintage": "hca-2026-06-01",
      "issued": 19,
      "graded": 11,
      "misses": 2,
      "summary": "published"
    },
    {
      "arena": "Housing / United States",
      "last_vintage": "hus-2026-06-01",
      "issued": 19,
      "graded": 12,
      "misses": 3,
      "summary": "published"
    },
    {
      "arena": "Quant",
      "last_vintage": "qnt-2026-07-01",
      "issued": 31,
      "graded": 24,
      "misses": 9,
      "summary": "published"
    },
    {
      "arena": "Financial Stability",
      "last_vintage": "fst-2026-04-01",
      "issued": 7,
      "graded": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "summary": "insufficient_data"
    },
    {
      "arena": "Geospatial",
      "last_vintage": "geo-2026-05-01",
      "issued": 4,
      "graded": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "summary": "insufficient_data"
    },
    {
      "arena": "Mine Design",
      "last_vintage": "mne-2026-02-01",
      "issued": 2,
      "graded": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "summary": "insufficient_data"
    }
  ]
}

BACKTEST · IN-SAMPLE HISTORY · NOT A TRACK RECORD

ARENA	WINDOW	OBS	MAE	HIT RATE	STATUS
Housing / Canada	1980–2024	528	1.94pp	71%	REPLICABLE
Housing / United States	1975–2024	594	2.31pp	68%	REPLICABLE
Quant	2005–2024	4,912	—	54%	REPLICABLE
Financial Stability	1998–2024	312	—	63%	PARTIAL

 SEAM · NOTHING BELOW THIS LINE WAS FITTED FIRST FORWARD LOCK 2025-01-01 

FORWARD · LOCKED AT ISSUANCE · GRADED ON RESOLUTION

ARENA	LAST VINTAGE	ISSUED	GRADED	MISSES	SUMMARY
Housing / Canada	hca-2026-06-01	19	11	2	PUBLISHED
Housing / United States	hus-2026-06-01	19	12	3	PUBLISHED
Quant	qnt-2026-07-01	31	24	9	PUBLISHED
Financial Stability	fst-2026-04-01	7	3	1	INSUFFICIENT DATA
Geospatial	geo-2026-05-01	4	1	0	INSUFFICIENT DATA
Mine Design	mne-2026-02-01	2	0	0	INSUFFICIENT DATA

MISSES ARE COUNTED IN THE SAME COLUMN SET AS PASSES. NO ARENA IS EXCLUDED FOR UNDERPERFORMANCE.

03 / THE TRUTH ENGINE

Five steps, each leaving an artifact you can check.

A forecast that cannot be checked is an opinion. Every stage below writes a file with a hash; the grade is arithmetic on files that already exist.

ST-01

Issue

A model writes a forecast with an explicit resolution date, interval and data cutoff. Nothing is published yet.

forecast.json

ST-02

Lock

The forecast is hashed and timestamped. The hash is public before the outcome exists; the content cannot change after.

sha256 + timestamp

ST-03

Publish

The locked vintage appears on the arena page and in the API on the same second, with its limitations attached.

vintage page + /v1

ST-04

Realize

The primary source releases the outcome. We record the release, the revision window, and the exact series used.

observation.json

ST-05

Grade

Error is arithmetic on two files that already existed. A miss publishes with the same prominence as a pass.

grade.json

04 / ARENAS

Six domains. Each publishes or says why it can't.

AR-01 PUBLISHED

Housing / United States

Metro-level house-price forecasts across 20 MSAs, built on Case-Shiller and FHFA series. Issued monthly, locked at issuance.

 19 issued · 12 graded · 3 misses SINCE 2025-01 

AR-02 PUBLISHED

Housing / Canada

House-price forecasts for Canada and eight metro markets, built on 45 years of Statistics Canada data. Issued monthly, locked at issuance, graded when reality arrives.

 19 issued · 11 graded · 2 misses SINCE 2025-01 

AR-03 PUBLISHED

Quant

Cross-sectional equity signals graded on realized forward returns, not backtested equity curves.

 31 issued · 24 graded · 9 misses SINCE 2024-09 

AR-04 INSUFFICIENT DATA

Financial Stability

Systemic stress indicators for banking and credit channels. Grading window is long; the record is young.

 7 issued · 3 graded SINCE 2026-01 

AR-05 INSUFFICIENT DATA

Geospatial

Land-use and infrastructure change detection graded against subsequent imagery and permits.

 4 issued · 1 graded SINCE 2026-03 

AR-06 INSUFFICIENT DATA

Mine Design

Pit and stope design outcomes graded against as-built surveys and recovered grade.

 2 issued · 0 graded SINCE 2026-05 

05 / FOR AGENTS

Machine-readable by construction.

Every graded number on this site has a stable anchor, a schema.org record, and a JSON manifest at the same path. Agents read the same ledger humans do — no summary layer in between.

schema.org/Dataset · Claim · Observation
stable anchors: #vintage-hca-2026-06-01
calibration credential: signed, re-verifiable

GET /v1/vintages JSON

Every locked forecast, paged, filterable by arena and grade.

GET /v1/vintages/{id} JSON

One forecast’s full life: issue, lock hash, realization, grade.

GET /v1/calibration JSON

Reliability curves and interval coverage per arena and horizon.

MCP server · tools: list_vintages, get_grade, get_manifest

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.

 FOUNDATIONS ↗ DESIGN SYSTEM ↗ OBSERVATORY · DIRECTOR ↗ SNAPSHOT 2026-08-01 · SAMPLE 