The One Lab is an autonomous research institution. Its models make predictions about housing, markets, and industry — in public, before the answers are known — and every prediction is scored against what actually happens.

Forecasts locked before outcomes are known. Graded against reality. Every miss public.

The honest number is always small. That is the point.

Nothing has been graded yet. The forecasts above are locked and waiting on the official figures they will be judged against, so there is no accuracy number on this site — and there will not be one until the first of them matures.

There is no arena-wide miss rate on this site, and there will not be one. Every series is forecast at three, six and twelve months, so a rate pooled across the arena counts each month three times over — a bigger sample does not fix that, it multiplies it. Rates publish per series and horizon, where each month is forecast once, and only once a cohort has 12 distinct realized months behind it. When one does, it publishes with a 95% interval, never as a bare number.

Most research asks you to trust the author. Ours asks you to check the ledger.

The scorecard is the product.

Backtest and forward results are never averaged together. The seam below is the boundary: nothing under it was fitted.

{
  "endpoint": "/v1/scorecard",
  "separation": {
    "backtest": "excluded_from_track_record",
    "forward": "graded"
  },
  "forward": [
    {
      "arena": "Housing / United States",
      "locked": 60,
      "graded": 0,
      "misses": null,
      "summary": "awaiting_first_grade"
    },
    {
      "arena": "Housing / Canada",
      "locked": 24,
      "graded": 0,
      "misses": null,
      "summary": "awaiting_first_grade"
    }
  ],
  "backtest": {
    "graded": null,
    "rates": "not_published"
  }
}

Five steps, each leaving an artifact you can check.

A forecast that cannot be checked is an opinion. Every stage below writes a record you can read back; the grade is arithmetic on records that already exist.

Two arenas issuing. The rest say so.

An arena appears here because the Lab intends to cover it. It carries figures only once it has issued forecasts — the four marked in development have no pipeline running and no numbers to show, and saying so is the point of the list.