 SCORECARD ARENAS DISCOVERY FOUNDATIONS FOR AGENTS 

 SAMPLE Design fixtures. Figures are a fixed sample series, not graded model output. 

AR-02 / ARENA PUBLISHED

Housing / Canada

House-price forecasts for Canada and eight metro markets, built on 45 years of Statistics Canada data. Issued monthly, locked at issuance, graded when reality arrives.

WHAT THIS
ARENA PREDICTS

For each of eight metropolitan markets, the twelve-month percentage change in the New Housing Price Index, with an 80% interval. One forecast per market per month. Each is hashed and published the second it is written, and graded exactly twelve months later against the first release of the same series — the number the market itself saw, not a revised one.

01 / LIVE FORECAST PANEL

{
  "arena": "housing-ca",
  "sample": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
  "current_vintage": {
    "id": "hca-2026-06-01/tor",
    "market": "Toronto CMA",
    "horizon_months": 12,
    "forecast_pct": 3.84,
    "interval_80": [
      -0.7,
      8.1
    ],
    "locked_at": "2026-06-01T09:00:00Z",
    "lock_sha256": "9f2c…41ab",
    "resolves_at": "2027-06-01"
  },
  "forward_record": {
    "issued": 19,
    "graded": 11,
    "misses": 2,
    "pending": 8
  },
  "next_lock": "2026-09-01T09:00:00Z"
}

LOCKED · CURRENT VINTAGE 2026-06-01T09:00:00Z

hca-2026-06-01/tor · TORONTO CMA · 12M

+3.84%

80% interval −0.70 … +8.10

 sha256:9f2c…41ab RESOLVES 2027-06-01 

OTHER MARKETS · SAME VINTAGE

 Vancouver CMA +2.90% 

 Montréal CMA +4.15% 

 Calgary CMA +1.05% 

 Ottawa–Gatineau +2.60% 

 Edmonton CMA +1.80% 

 Halifax CMA +3.20% 

 Winnipeg CMA +2.05% 

 NEXT LOCK2026-09-01T09:00:00Z 

02 / GRADED HISTORY

Every row links to the vintage's own page. Misses sit in the same table as passes, in issue order, never sorted away.

BACKTEST · 1980–2024 · 528 OBSERVATIONS · MAE 1.94pp · NOT A TRACK RECORD

 SEAM · NOTHING BELOW THIS LINE WAS FITTED FIRST FORWARD LOCK 2025-01-01 

VINTAGE	MARKET	FORECAST	REALIZED	ERROR	RESOLVES	GRADE
hca-2026-06-01	Toronto CMA	+3.84%	—	—	2027-06-01	PENDING
hca-2026-03-01	Vancouver CMA	+2.90%	—	—	2027-03-01	PENDING
hca-2025-08-01	Vancouver CMA	+2.10%	+2.44%	+0.34	2026-08-01	PASS
hca-2025-06-01	Calgary CMA	+5.10%	+1.62%	−3.48	2026-06-01	MISS
hca-2025-04-01	Montréal CMA	+4.60%	+4.05%	−0.55	2026-04-01	PASS
hca-2025-02-01	Ottawa–Gatineau	+1.90%	+2.31%	+0.41	2026-02-01	PASS
hca-2025-01-01	Halifax CMA	−0.80%	+2.95%	+3.75	2026-01-01	MISS

03 / LIMITATIONS

Constitutional. This block is the same size class as the results panel above and is never collapsed, moved below the fold, or set in a smaller face.

WHAT THIS ARENA CANNOT TELL YOU

L-01

Grades depend on StatCan NHPI revisions; we grade against the T+12-month vintage. A grade stays provisional for 90 days and can move if the series is revised.

L-02

Metro coverage is 8 markets; forecasts outside them are not issued. Nothing here should be read as a national average, a rural signal, or a territorial forecast.

L-03

The model has never forecast through a rate shock larger than 2024, and it under-weighted the Calgary in-migration break of 2025. Its behaviour in a comparable regime is unverified, not merely uncertain.

04 / CALIBRATION

RELIABILITY · PREDICTED vs REALIZED

n=11 graded · dashed = perfect calibration · under-confident above the line

GRADE DISTRIBUTION · 11 RESOLVED

9

2

8

0

PASS

MISS

PENDING

WITHDRAWN

2 of 11 graded vintages fell outside their declared interval.

05 / PROVENANCE & ENDPOINTS

 PRIMARY SOURCE Statistics Canada 

 SERIES NHPI 18-10-0205-01 

 HISTORY 1981-01 → present 

 METHODOLOGY hca-core v4.2 

 ISSUE CADENCE monthly, 09:00 UTC 

GET /v1/arenas/housing-ca Arena summary, cadence, current locked vintage.

GET /v1/arenas/housing-ca/vintages All vintages with grades and lock hashes.

GET /v1/arenas/housing-ca/calibration Reliability curve and interval coverage.

FULL API SURFACE →

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so. ARENA AR-02 · SAMPLE