The One Lab HOMEPAGE FOUNDATIONS FOUNDATIONS · v0.1

 SAMPLE Fixtures for design review. No figure on this page is a graded model output. 

00 / FOUNDATIONS

Token sheet & component library

Forecasts locked before outcomes are known. Graded against reality. Every miss public. This sheet defines the surfaces those claims are rendered on — in both lightings.

01 / COLOR TOKENS

--surface

#0A0A0A

Primary page surface

--surface-2

#121212

Card / panel fill

--surface-3

#171716

Table head, seam, banner

--text

#EFEDE6

Primary text and numerals

--muted

#8A8A84

Secondary body, deprecated values

--caption

#6C6C66

Captions, axis labels, IDs

--hairline

#2A2A28

Default 1px rule

--hairline-strong

#3A3A36

Seam, axis, emphasis rule

--accent

#CDF54B

Signal. Text-safe on ink only

--pass-fg

#CDF54B

Pass chip label

--pass-bg

rgba(205,245,75,0.10)

Pass chip fill

--miss-fg

#F0666A

Miss label — never grey

--miss-line

#E5484D

Miss rule and seal

--grid

#1E1E1C

Chart grid hairline

 ▸ LIME RULE — on ink surfaces lime may carry text and UI emphasis. On bone surfaces lime is accent-only: chart strokes, tick marks, the plat rule, active underlines, and lime chips with ink text. Interactive emphasis on light = weight + underline. 

02 / TYPOGRAPHY

ARCHIVO — DISPLAY / BODY

DISPLAY / 76 / 800 / -2%

Graded against reality

SECTION / 30 / 700

How verification works

BODY / 17 / 400 / 1.6

House-price forecasts for Canada and eight metro markets, built on 45 years of Statistics Canada data. Issued monthly, locked at issuance, graded when reality arrives.

IBM PLEX MONO — DATA

NUMERALS / 44 / 500 / TABULAR

+3.84% −1.02%

KICKER / 11 / 500 / +18% TRACKING

04 / VINTAGE DETAIL

TIMESTAMP / ID / 12

2026-06-01T09:00:00Z
vintage:hca-2026-06-01/tor
sha256:9f2c…41ab

03 / GRADE CHIP

One chip, four states. A miss is never grey and never smaller than a pass.

  PASS within band 

  MISS −3.48pp 

  PENDING resolves 2027-06 

  PARTIAL direction only 

04 / FORECAST CARD

Two states of the same object. The lock is a physical mark: a solid lime seal on the left edge and a hash you can check.

LOCKED 2026-06-01T09:00:00Z

HOUSING / CANADA · TORONTO CMA · 12M

+3.84%

80% interval −0.7% … +8.1%

 sha256:9f2c…41ab RESOLVES 2027-06-01 

GRADED 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z

FORECAST

+5.10%

REALIZED

+1.62%

 MISS

error +3.48pp · outside 80% band

 sha256:41d8…7c02 MANIFEST ↗ 

05 / DATA TABLE + API AFFORDANCE

Mono numerals, right-aligned, hairline rows. Every data block carries a JSON tag that opens the exact payload an agent receives.

{
  "arena": "housing-ca",
  "endpoint": "/v1/vintages?arena=housing-ca&limit=6",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00Z",
  "sample": true,
  "vintages": [
    {
      "id": "hca-2026-06-01",
      "market": "Toronto CMA",
      "forecast_pct": "+3.84%",
      "realized_pct": null,
      "grade": "pending"
    },
    {
      "id": "hca-2025-08-01",
      "market": "Vancouver CMA",
      "forecast_pct": "+2.10%",
      "realized_pct": "+2.44%",
      "grade": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

VINTAGE	MARKET	FORECAST	REALIZED	ERROR	GRADE
hca-2026-06-01	Toronto CMA	+3.84%	—	—	PENDING
hca-2025-08-01	Vancouver CMA	+2.10%	+2.44%	+0.34	PASS
hca-2025-06-01	Calgary CMA	+5.10%	+1.62%	−3.48	MISS
hca-2025-04-01	Montréal CMA	+4.60%	+4.05%	−0.55	PASS
hca-2025-02-01	Ottawa–Gatineau	+1.90%	+2.31%	+0.41	PASS
hca-2025-01-01	Halifax CMA	−0.80%	+2.95%	+3.75	MISS

06 / BACKTEST — FORWARD SEAM

The sacred boundary. A physical seam: the surface steps, the rule doubles, and the label states which side you are on. Never a heading, never a colour alone.

BACKTEST · 1980–2024 · IN-SAMPLE HISTORY

528 monthly observations · walk-forward · no live capital

 SEAM · NOTHING BELOW THIS LINE WAS FITTED 2025-01-01 

FORWARD · 2025-01 → PRESENT · LOCKED AT ISSUANCE

19 vintages issued · 11 graded · 8 pending resolution

07 / LIMITATIONS & INSUFFICIENT DATA

LIMITATIONS · CONSTITUTIONAL

L-01

Statistics Canada revises the NHPI up to 90 days after first release. Grades issued inside that window are marked provisional and may move.

L-02

Eight CMAs cover roughly 54% of national transaction volume. Nothing here should be read as a rural or territorial forecast.

L-03

The model has never traded a rate shock larger than 2024. Its behaviour beyond that regime is unverified, not merely uncertain.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This arena has issued 3 forecasts. A grade summary is published at 12. We would rather show nothing than a number that cannot be defended.

FIRST SUMMARY EXPECTED 2027-Q1

08 / CHART LANGUAGE

Lime carries signal in both themes; grid hairlines and axis labels flip. No fills unless the fill means something. Rendered from the fixture arrays below.

CALIBRATION · PREDICTED vs REALIZED

n=412 · dashed = perfect calibration

FORECAST vs ACTUAL · LOCK MARKERS

 FORECAST ACTUAL LOCK 

GRADE DISTRIBUTION · 33 RESOLVED VINTAGES

12

9

5

4

3

A

B

C

MISS

PENDING

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so. TOKENS v0.1 ·