SCORECARDARENASDISCOVERYFOUNDATIONSFOR AGENTS

Historical governed hold record.

This lock is preserved but excluded from the current registered Canada intelligence report, its calculations, and any future institutional product track record. Open the current Canada report →

← HOUSING / CANADAVINTAGE b70d532cPENDING

Montréal CMA · 3M

On 5 August 2026 we predicted Montréal CMA new-home prices would be 0.49% higher by September 2026.

Our stated range was 156.635 to 162.792 — if the method works as intended, the true figure lands inside it about 95% of the time. Verdict due the first Statistics Canada release covering September 2026, when the official figure is published. It has not been graded yet, and nothing on this page can change what was written above.

PROVENANCE DISCLOSURE — PROVENANCE — ISSUED UNDER HOLD · STANDS ON THE EVIDENCE

These 24 forecasts were issued on 2026-08-05 by a scheduled job while this arena was held — the hold was written on pages like this one and not into the job that issues, and the fault is ours. They were fit on a collection of the source data that has since been superseded: StatCan WDS returns no value for a suppressed period. The defective run wrote 0.0 for those points instead of discarding them, so 40 fabricated zeros entered the archive as measured index levels. HALIFAX was refused by the model's positivity check as a direct consequence, which is what first evidenced the contamination., superseded on 2026-08-06. The archive was re-collected and each of these forecasts was re-fit against it, at the same publisher vintage each one declared, and every one reproduced exactly — same fit window, same number. They therefore stand, graded under the same rules as everything else, and they carry this note permanently. They are also marked in the record so they can never be pooled with forecasts issued after the re-collection without that being visible.

RULING — THE 24 STAND, with the scar disclosed permanently. Two independent falsifiable paths to one answer: 4,874 period+vintage pairs corroborated across two collections BEFORE the supersession that would have made the measurement vacuous, and 24/24 locks re-fit IDENTICAL at exact double equality with zero fit-window movement, from a tool proven able to report DIVERGENT. The contamination was confined to HALIFAX, which issued no locks. The defect was in the pipeline and the pipeline is fixed; withdrawing sound forecasts to punish a process failure would put process above truth. · Director · 2026-08-06

EVIDENCE — DECISION LEDGER

2026-08-05Canadian refusal report BEFORE supersession — the baseline half of the comparison: 9 series, 4,914 observations, 1 refusal (HALIFAX, positivity), 8 would issue

136ed132-1ac8-46f0-8a8b-966814fdd47b

2026-08-06Canadian archive corroborated: 4,874 period+vintage pairs identical across two independent collections three days apart, the forty fabricated zeros the entire divergence

c233302e-faa3-4d9b-9fda-3d5349968815

2026-08-06Canadian refusal report AFTER supersession — the after-half: 9 series, 4,874 observations, ZERO refusals, and HALIFAX becomes eligible at 506 rather than falling below the floor

dd28a402-605f-4b63-ad8a-c9f7c200b48c

2026-08-06WINDOW DIFF, the 24 Canadian locks: 24 IDENTICAL, 0 DIVERGENT, 0 NO_REFIT, and 0 fit windows moved — every lock re-fits from the clean archive to the value it locked, at full double precision rather than merely to the 3dp bar. Evidence only; no disposition taken.

f76d64cc-1d1a-4d3d-92fb-9bd80b632a9e

01 / WHAT WAS LOCKED

FORECAST · INDEX LEVEL159.684

CHANGE FROM BASE+0.49%

95% INTERVAL156.635 … 162.792

BASE — LAST FIGURE PUBLISHED BEFORE THE LOCK158.900 · 2026-06-01

TARGET PERIOD2026-09-01

LOCKED AT — TIMESTAMP ASSIGNED BY THE DATABASE2026-08-05T09:40:47.376825+00:00

02 / WHEN THIS GETS ITS VERDICT

This forecast is graded against the FIRST figure the publisher releases for September 2026 — the number the market actually saw — and never against a later revision. That rule was fixed on 2026-08-03, before this forecast existed.

Headline grade (first_print): the earliest publisher vintage at or after the target period. Available roughly two months after the period ends, on the publisher's schedule, not ours.

Companion grade (settled_t_plus_12): the value as published twelve months after the target period, which measures how much the first figure was revised. Available roughly fourteen months after. Both definitions were committed before any grade existed under either.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

This forecast has not been graded. It cannot be: the period it names has not been published yet. When it is, the verdict appears here — pass or miss — and nothing on this page changes.

03 / PROVENANCE

VINTAGE IDb70d532c-aa87-4c55-a267-57da2fca5421

ARENAhousing_ca

SERIESMONTREAL

TARGET PERIOD2026-09-01

LOCKED AT2026-08-05T09:40:47.376825+00:00

MODELar12_logdiff

MODEL SPEC1.1

MODEL SELECTION546 observations >= 60

POINT STATISTICmedian

FIT WINDOW546 observations, 1981-01-01 → 2026-06-01

ARCHIVE AS OF2026-07-24

COMMIT SHAe889a572a47841d746697470330446ec7ffc37a4

RUN MANIFEST7e2c575c-a588-4402-bd05-ebf7d7cc9dc4

PUBLISHER VINTAGES THIS FORECAST WAS BUILT FROM

Every input the reconstruction used, with the time the publisher released it. The forward-lock check reads these back from the record and fails the run if any of them postdates the lock above — that is what makes "locked before the outcome existed" a checked statement rather than a claim.

INPUT	PUBLISHER RELEASE TIME
observations:MONTREAL@2022-01-05	2022-01-05T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-01-21	2022-01-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-02-18	2022-02-18T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-03-18	2022-03-18T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-04-20	2022-04-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-05-19	2022-05-19T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-06-21	2022-06-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-07-21	2022-07-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-08-22	2022-08-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-09-22	2022-09-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-10-21	2022-10-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-11-22	2022-11-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2022-12-16	2022-12-16T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-01-23	2023-01-23T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-02-22	2023-02-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-03-22	2023-03-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-04-24	2023-04-24T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-05-18	2023-05-18T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-06-21	2023-06-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-07-21	2023-07-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-08-21	2023-08-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-09-21	2023-09-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-10-24	2023-10-24T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-11-21	2023-11-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2023-12-18	2023-12-18T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-01-23	2024-01-23T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-02-21	2024-02-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-03-21	2024-03-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-04-22	2024-04-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-05-23	2024-05-23T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-06-20	2024-06-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-07-24	2024-07-24T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-08-20	2024-08-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-09-23	2024-09-23T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-10-25	2024-10-25T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-11-22	2024-11-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2024-12-17	2024-12-17T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-01-24	2025-01-24T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-02-20	2025-02-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-03-21	2025-03-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-04-23	2025-04-23T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-05-21	2025-05-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-06-20	2025-06-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-07-23	2025-07-23T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-08-20	2025-08-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-09-25	2025-09-25T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-10-24	2025-10-24T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-11-21	2025-11-21T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2025-12-19	2025-12-19T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-01-22	2026-01-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-02-19	2026-02-19T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-03-20	2026-03-20T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-04-22	2026-04-22T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-05-19	2026-05-19T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-06-17	2026-06-17T00:00:00Z
observations:MONTREAL@2026-07-24	2026-07-24T00:00:00Z

CONTENT DIGEST

106b64c79b393bf8f1e7c675955afca10d3f36477cf0e2cd8490a54095c306c5

SHA-256 over the payload serialized with object keys sorted lexicographically at every depth and no whitespace, computed when this page was built. It is not stored on the row, and it is not the commitment: the commitment is the append-only row and the lock timestamp the database assigned to it. Fetch the same payload from /v1/vintages and repeat this to check it.

04 / THE LOCKED PAYLOAD, VERBATIM

{
  "as_of": "2026-07-24",
  "model": "ar12_logdiff",
  "interval": {
    "label": "95%",
    "lower": 156.63473741215162,
    "upper": 162.79170137975046,
    "method": "ma_representation",
    "log_variance": 0.00009673929281435368
  },
  "base_value": 158.9,
  "commit_sha": "e889a572a47841d746697470330446ec7ffc37a4",
  "fit_window": {
    "last_period": "2026-06-01",
    "first_period": "1981-01-01",
    "observations": 546
  },
  "base_period": "2026-06-01",
  "forecast_value": 159.68354767631703,
  "horizon_months": 3,
  "forecast_inputs": [
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-01-05",
      "as_of": "2022-01-05T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-01-21",
      "as_of": "2022-01-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-02-18",
      "as_of": "2022-02-18T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-03-18",
      "as_of": "2022-03-18T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-04-20",
      "as_of": "2022-04-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-05-19",
      "as_of": "2022-05-19T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-06-21",
      "as_of": "2022-06-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-07-21",
      "as_of": "2022-07-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-08-22",
      "as_of": "2022-08-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-09-22",
      "as_of": "2022-09-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-10-21",
      "as_of": "2022-10-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-11-22",
      "as_of": "2022-11-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2022-12-16",
      "as_of": "2022-12-16T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-01-23",
      "as_of": "2023-01-23T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-02-22",
      "as_of": "2023-02-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-03-22",
      "as_of": "2023-03-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-04-24",
      "as_of": "2023-04-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-05-18",
      "as_of": "2023-05-18T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-06-21",
      "as_of": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-07-21",
      "as_of": "2023-07-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-08-21",
      "as_of": "2023-08-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-09-21",
      "as_of": "2023-09-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-10-24",
      "as_of": "2023-10-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-11-21",
      "as_of": "2023-11-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2023-12-18",
      "as_of": "2023-12-18T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-01-23",
      "as_of": "2024-01-23T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-02-21",
      "as_of": "2024-02-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-03-21",
      "as_of": "2024-03-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-04-22",
      "as_of": "2024-04-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-05-23",
      "as_of": "2024-05-23T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-06-20",
      "as_of": "2024-06-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-07-24",
      "as_of": "2024-07-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-08-20",
      "as_of": "2024-08-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-09-23",
      "as_of": "2024-09-23T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-10-25",
      "as_of": "2024-10-25T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-11-22",
      "as_of": "2024-11-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2024-12-17",
      "as_of": "2024-12-17T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-01-24",
      "as_of": "2025-01-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-02-20",
      "as_of": "2025-02-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-03-21",
      "as_of": "2025-03-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-04-23",
      "as_of": "2025-04-23T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-05-21",
      "as_of": "2025-05-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-06-20",
      "as_of": "2025-06-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-07-23",
      "as_of": "2025-07-23T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-08-20",
      "as_of": "2025-08-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-09-25",
      "as_of": "2025-09-25T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-10-24",
      "as_of": "2025-10-24T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-11-21",
      "as_of": "2025-11-21T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2025-12-19",
      "as_of": "2025-12-19T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-01-22",
      "as_of": "2026-01-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-02-19",
      "as_of": "2026-02-19T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-03-20",
      "as_of": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-04-22",
      "as_of": "2026-04-22T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-05-19",
      "as_of": "2026-05-19T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-06-17",
      "as_of": "2026-06-17T00:00:00Z"
    },
    {
      "ref": "observations:MONTREAL@2026-07-24",
      "as_of": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z"
    }
  ],
  "point_statistic": "median",
  "run_manifest_id": "7e2c575c-a588-4402-bd05-ebf7d7cc9dc4",
  "model_spec_version": "1.1",
  "model_selection_reason": "546 observations >= 60"
}

GET /v1/vintages/b70d532c-aa87-4c55-a267-57da2fca5421

The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so.VINTAGE b70d532c · WRITE-ONCE · NOT YET GRADED