REGISTERED PUBLIC EVIDENCE · PRICES + SUPPLY STAGES + RENTAL + MORTGAGE CREDIT + LOCAL AFFORDABILITY

Canada Housing Intelligence

EVIDENCE_ONLY_GATE_1_OPEN

Canadian public-data architecture complete · Premium decision architecture live · Licensed market facts remain gated.

Registered official evidence currently covers Statistics Canada NHPI new-home prices, residential dwelling units authorized by permits, actual housing starts, actual completions and units under construction, plus CMHC primary-rental apartment vacancy and survey-universe estimates. Construction coverage is Canada starts for centres of 50,000+ and eight named CMAs for all three construction-stage measures; rental coverage is eight named CMAs and excludes asking rent, condominium rental, social/affordable housing, turnover and absorption. The report does not cover resale housing, occupancy, sales or forecast supply.

The historical Housing / Canada arena is preserved as a separate governed record. Its 24 forecasts issued under hold are not inputs to this report and are not part of a future institutional product track record.

CANADA - PUBLIC DATA EDITION

One Lab Institutional Housing Intelligence

PUBLICATION STATE
CANDIDATE_REQUIRES_PRODUCTION_RECEIPT
EVIDENCE CUTOFF
2026-07-01
MODEL SHA-256
35d2d2152b09abc05f0e1321bb168022a4431fc1eccaef4877afe8c5004049a7
AUTHORITY
EVIDENCE REPORT / CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS
DOWNLOAD VERIFIED PDFDOWNLOAD EVIDENCE MODEL

No premium data is used. Transactions, cap rates, proprietary effective rents and restricted resale remain DATA_REQUIRED. Scenarios are conditional models, not forecasts. This is not investment advice or a valuation.

01 / EXECUTIVE DECISION BRIEF
CANADA HOUSING REGIME / HIGH_REGISTERED

New-home prices are measured separately from resale markets.

WHAT HAPPENED?
Canada NHPI was 120.5 at 2026-07; its 12-month change was -2.27%.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
It is the admitted national price direction signal, but it cannot answer resale liquidity or transaction questions.
WHAT IS CHANGING?
The registered 12-month direction is falling.
WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?
nhpi:CANADA:level / nhpi:CANADA:12m
ESTABLISHED COUNTER-EVIDENCE
No counter-evidence was established in the admitted evidence set; this does not assert that none exists.
COVERAGE LIMITATIONS
No resale price, sales-volume, listings, inventory or sale-to-list evidence is admitted.
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Resale and new-home segments can diverge; this publication does not test that explanation.
HOW CONFIDENT ARE WE?
HIGH_REGISTERED
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW?
A later official NHPI vintage or admitted resale evidence would change this view.
WHO SHOULD CARE?
developers, lenders, governments
WHAT SHOULD THEY WATCH NEXT?
next Statistics Canada NHPI release, publisher revisions
NATIONAL SUPPLY PIPELINE / BOUNDED_REGISTERED

Authorizations and construction stages remain distinct.

WHAT HAPPENED?
Registered national permits were 28,905 and actual starts in centres of 50,000+ were 17,424; their periods and definitions remain separately disclosed.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
Permits do not become delivered supply without observed starts, construction and completions.
WHAT IS CHANGING?
Momentum is reported independently for permits and starts; no stage is substituted for another.
WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?
permits:PERMITS_CANADA:level / permits:PERMITS_CANADA:12m / construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:level / construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:12m
ESTABLISHED COUNTER-EVIDENCE
No counter-evidence was established in the admitted evidence set; this does not assert that none exists.
COVERAGE LIMITATIONS
National completions and under-construction inventory are absent from this registered slice.
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Differences between permits and starts can reflect timing, cancellations, revisions or unlike universes; no cohort conversion is inferred.
HOW CONFIDENT ARE WE?
BOUNDED_REGISTERED
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW?
Comparable-period national completions and pipeline inventory would permit a fuller conversion analysis.
WHO SHOULD CARE?
developers, governments, REITs and pensions
WHAT SHOULD THEY WATCH NEXT?
permits, starts, under construction, completions
RENTAL MARKET / BOUNDED_REGISTERED

Primary-rental vacancy is live for eight CMAs; asking rent is not.

WHAT HAPPENED?
The median registered October vacancy estimate across 8 CMAs was 3.0%.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
Vacancy supplies a bounded pressure signal while rent levels, turnover and absorption remain unknown.
WHAT IS CHANGING?
The transparent threshold classifies this cross-market median as neutral.
WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?
rental:TORONTO:vacancy / rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy / rental:MONTREAL:vacancy / rental:CALGARY:vacancy / rental:EDMONTON:vacancy / rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy / rental:HALIFAX:vacancy / rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy
ESTABLISHED COUNTER-EVIDENCE
No counter-evidence was established in the admitted evidence set; this does not assert that none exists.
COVERAGE LIMITATIONS
The survey does not provide asking rent, achieved rent, condominium rental or absorption in this product.
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Vacancy differences can reflect local supply, tenure mix and survey-universe composition; the admitted data do not isolate causes.
HOW CONFIDENT ARE WE?
BOUNDED_REGISTERED
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW?
A new CMHC survey vintage or admitted asking/achieved-rent evidence would change the assessment.
WHO SHOULD CARE?
REITs and pensions, developers, governments
WHAT SHOULD THEY WATCH NEXT?
next CMHC Rental Market Survey, survey-universe revisions
MORTGAGE / HOUSEHOLD STRESS / BOUNDED_REGISTERED

National mortgage burden is context, not borrower stress telemetry.

WHAT HAPPENED?
The registered national mortgage debt-service ratio was 7.84% at 2026-01.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
It frames aggregate debt burden but cannot identify renewal, delinquency, lender or household exposure.
WHAT IS CHANGING?
The registered annual change was -0.04 percentage points.
WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?
institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA / institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA:change
ESTABLISHED COUNTER-EVIDENCE
No counter-evidence was established in the admitted evidence set; this does not assert that none exists.
COVERAGE LIMITATIONS
No borrower cohorts, payment resets, arrears, insured/uninsured split, LTV or regional concentration.
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Aggregate debt-service changes can reflect rates, income, principal repayment and composition; borrower stress is not identified.
HOW CONFIDENT ARE WE?
BOUNDED_REGISTERED
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW?
Admissible privacy-safe cohort evidence or a later official aggregate vintage would change this view.
WHO SHOULD CARE?
banks and lenders, governments, family offices
WHAT SHOULD THEY WATCH NEXT?
debt-service releases, Bank of Canada public stress research
PUBLIC INVESTOR / OWNERSHIP INTELLIGENCE / INSUFFICIENT_DATA

Investor concentration is refused where public evidence is insufficient.

WHAT HAPPENED?
No ownership or investor-concentration number is issued.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
Tenure counts and customer portfolio inputs cannot stand in for market ownership concentration.
WHAT IS CHANGING?
State remains INSUFFICIENT_DATA.
WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?
INSUFFICIENT_DATA
ESTABLISHED COUNTER-EVIDENCE
No counter-evidence was established in the admitted evidence set; this does not assert that none exists.
COVERAGE LIMITATIONS
No admitted current ownership/investor dataset supports a consistent geography-period comparison.
ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS
Tenure and investor ownership are different concepts; neither is used as a proxy for the other.
HOW CONFIDENT ARE WE?
INSUFFICIENT_DATA
WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR VIEW?
An admitted official ownership series with exact geography, period, unit and rights would change this refusal.
WHO SHOULD CARE?
governments, REITs and pensions, family offices
WHAT SHOULD THEY WATCH NEXT?
Canadian Housing Statistics Program releases and admissibility review
02 / CANADA HOUSING REGIME

Eleven dimensions. No magic score.

DimensionDataAssessment / stateValueThresholdEvidence / limitation
demand pressureDATA_AVAILABLEASSESSED_STATE
RISING		1.12 median annual population change across evidenced CMAs, percentRISING above +0.5%; FALLING below -0.5%; otherwise NEUTRALinstitutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m
Population change is contextual pressure, not housing demand or household formation.
new-home price directionDATA_AVAILABLEASSESSED_STATE
FALLING		-2.27 12-month percent changeRISING above +0.25%; FALLING below -0.25%; otherwise NEUTRALnhpi:CANADA:12m
NHPI covers new homes, not resale transactions.
supply authorizationDATA_AVAILABLEASSESSED_STATE
RISING		5.77 12-month percent change in permitted dwelling unitsRISING above +2%; FALLING below -2%; otherwise NEUTRALpermits:PERMITS_CANADA:12m
Permits are authorizations, not starts, completions, occupancy or absorption.
starts momentumDATA_AVAILABLEASSESSED_STATE
FALLING		-19.84 12-month percent change in actual startsRISING above +2%; FALLING below -2%; otherwise NEUTRALconstruction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:12m
The national starts series covers centres of 50,000+ and is not SAAR.
under-construction pipelineDATA_AVAILABLEDESCRIPTIVE_ONLY
INSUFFICIENT_DATA		INSUFFICIENT_DATA No aggregate state without comparable starts, completions and pipeline periodsNO NUMERIC EVIDENCE
Inventory is not a delivery schedule; market-level rows remain in the pipeline table.
completion momentumINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
INSUFFICIENT_DATA		INSUFFICIENT_DATA RISING above +2%; FALLING below -2%; otherwise NEUTRALNO NUMERIC EVIDENCE
No registered national completion series exists in this slice.
rental pressureDATA_AVAILABLEASSESSED_STATE
NEUTRAL		2.95 median primary-rental vacancy estimate across eight CMAs, percentTIGHT at or below 2%; EASING above 3.5%; otherwise NEUTRALrental:TORONTO:vacancy / rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy / rental:MONTREAL:vacancy / rental:CALGARY:vacancy / rental:EDMONTON:vacancy / rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy / rental:HALIFAX:vacancy / rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy
Annual October survey; excludes asking rent, condominiums and absorption.
affordability stressDATA_AVAILABLEDESCRIPTIVE_ONLY
INSUFFICIENT_DATA		INSUFFICIENT_DATA No current state from 2020 income and 2021 Census burden aloneNO NUMERIC EVIDENCE
The admitted local evidence is not current enough for a current affordability regime.
mortgage/credit stressDATA_AVAILABLEDESCRIPTIVE_ONLY
INSUFFICIENT_DATA		7.84 percentDescriptive national aggregate only; no stress classification without cohort evidenceinstitutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA
No borrower, renewal, arrears, lender, city, LTV or fixed/variable detail.
demographic pressureDATA_AVAILABLEASSESSED_STATE
RISING		1.12 median annual population change across evidenced CMAs, percentRISING above +0.5%; FALLING below -0.5%; otherwise NEUTRALinstitutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m / institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m
Population and migration components are not household formation.
ownership/investor concentrationINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
INSUFFICIENT_DATA		INSUFFICIENT_DATA REFUSE until admissible ownership/investor evidence supports the geography and periodNO NUMERIC EVIDENCE
No concentration estimate is inferred from tenure or customer portfolio data.
03 / NATIONAL SUPPLY PIPELINE

Permits -> starts -> under construction -> completions

Ratios are issued only when all four stages share the same geography and reference period. Missing or non-comparable stages remain insufficient; stages are never conflated.

GeographyPeriodPermitsStartsUnder constructionCompletionsPermit/startPipeline/completionCompletion gap
CalgaryNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING3,4161,50424,5471,879INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
CanadaNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING28,90517,424INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
EdmontonNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING1,8042,17418,2891,729INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
HalifaxNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING34445214,751116INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
MontréalNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING3,4542,45834,8093,403INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
Québec CityNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING1,0091,03110,4551,746INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
TorontoNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING3,4461,54092,7491,009INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
VancouverNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING1,3131,81059,5952,123INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
WinnipegNON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING7415459,105381INSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATAINSUFFICIENT_DATA
09 / MAJOR CMA / CITY INTELLIGENCE
EVIDENCED

Toronto

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 97,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: -0.014 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 3 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 336,180 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
97,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO
-0.014 percent_change / 2025-01-01
TORONTO
3 percent / 2025-10-01
TORONTO
336,180 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Vancouver

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 90,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 0.205 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 3.7 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 127,091 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
90,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER
0.205 percent_change / 2025-01-01
VANCOUVER
3.7 percent / 2025-10-01
VANCOUVER
127,091 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Montréal

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 76,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 0.547 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 2.9 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 667,266 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
76,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL
0.547 percent_change / 2025-01-01
MONTREAL
2.9 percent / 2025-10-01
MONTREAL
667,266 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Calgary

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 100,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 2.935 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 5 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 62,657 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
100,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY
2.935 percent_change / 2025-01-01
CALGARY
5 percent / 2025-10-01
CALGARY
62,657 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Edmonton

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 96,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 3.089 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 3.8 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 90,595 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
96,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON
3.089 percent_change / 2025-01-01
EDMONTON
3.8 percent / 2025-10-01
EDMONTON
90,595 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Winnipeg

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 83,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 1.25 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 2.8 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 75,154 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
83,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG
1.25 percent_change / 2025-01-01
WINNIPEG
2.8 percent / 2025-10-01
WINNIPEG
75,154 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Halifax

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 81,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 1.578 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 2.7 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 62,411 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
81,000 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX
1.578 percent_change / 2025-01-01
HALIFAX
2.7 percent / 2025-10-01
HALIFAX
62,411 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

EVIDENCED

Québec City

Evidence bindings: 27

  • Historical median total income: 76,500 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.
  • Annual population change: 0.997 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.
  • Primary-rental vacancy: 2.4 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 118,693 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred.
institutional
76,500 2020 constant dollars / 2021-01-01
STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY
0.997 percent_change / 2025-01-01
QUEBEC_CITY
2.4 percent / 2025-10-01
QUEBEC_CITY
118,693 apartment_units / 2025-10-01

Watch: price direction, permits, construction stages, vacancy, population context

10 / SCENARIO LAB

Conditions, not forecasts.

CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST

BASE

If: Registered public indicators continue near their current directions and no gated premium fact is assumed.

Then watch: Track each regime dimension independently. Preserve current evidence limitations.

Disconfirming: A material reversal in permits, starts, vacancy or mortgage debt-service context.

Next: Next official releases and revisions.

CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST

RATE STRESS

If: Debt-service burden rises while household income and rental absorption evidence do not improve.

Then watch: Refinancing sensitivity may increase. Lenders should require cohort evidence before exposure conclusions.

Disconfirming: Falling debt-service burden or new admissible renewal-cohort evidence.

Next: Mortgage debt-service aggregates, Bank of Canada financial-condition research

CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST

DEMAND WEAKNESS

If: Population momentum and rental pressure soften while completions remain firm.

Then watch: Absorption risk would require direct evidence before a market conclusion.

Disconfirming: Re-acceleration in population context or tightening vacancy.

Next: Population revisions, CMHC vacancy, completed units

CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST

SUPPLY ACCELERATION

If: Separately observed permit, start and completion measures rise across later comparable official periods.

Then watch: Pipeline delivery risk may ease, subject to absorption and tenure evidence.

Disconfirming: Later permits, starts or completions weaken; cancellations are not observed here.

Next: separately dated permit levels, separately dated starts and completions

CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST

SUPPLY SHORTFALL

If: Authorizations and starts weaken while demographic and rental pressure remain elevated.

Then watch: Supply vulnerability may intensify, but no price or rent forecast is issued.

Disconfirming: Sustained completions acceleration or easing demand pressure.

Next: Permits, starts, under-construction stock, completions

COMPLETE 19-SECTION PUBLICATION MODEL
04 / BOUNDED

AFFORDABILITY

Registered census income and shelter burden are shown with their historical reference periods; no synthetic current affordability score is issued.

  • The local income evidence refers to 2020 and Census shelter-cost burden and tenure refer to 2021. These measures support historical cross-market context, not a current affordability assessment.
  • Current mortgage rates, taxes, insurance and utilities are absent, so a present-day carrying-cost or qualification result is not issued.
05 / EVIDENCED

RENTAL MARKET

CMHC primary-rental vacancy and survey-universe evidence is bounded to eight CMAs and the October survey.

  • The conventional median of the 8 registered October vacancy estimates is 2.95%; the full cross-market distribution remains visible rather than being treated as a national rent measure.
  • The CMHC primary-rental universe excludes asking rent, achieved rent, condominium rentals and direct absorption evidence in this publication.
06 / EVIDENCED

MORTGAGE / HOUSEHOLD STRESS

Official national aggregates are separated from unavailable borrower, cohort and lender evidence.

  • The national mortgage debt-service ratio is DATA_AVAILABLE but DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY. Without borrower cohorts, renewals, arrears or regional lender exposure, stress state remains INSUFFICIENT_DATA.
  • The aggregate can inform monitoring of direction and vintage; it cannot identify which households or lenders bear the change.
07 / BOUNDED

DEMOGRAPHICS / HOUSEHOLD FORMATION

Population and migration context is live; household formation remains refused without direct evidence.

  • The conventional median annual population change across the eight registered CMAs is 1.123159557%. Population change is context, not an observed household-formation rate.
  • Immigration and interprovincial/non-permanent-resident components are reported separately because their housing transmission is neither immediate nor one-for-one.
08 / REFUSED_INSUFFICIENT_DATA

PUBLIC INVESTOR / OWNERSHIP INTELLIGENCE

Ownership and investor concentration are published only where admitted evidence supports them; current state is insufficient.

  • No investor-concentration estimate is issued. Public tenure counts describe owner and renter households, not investor ownership of units.
  • Transactions, beneficial ownership, cap rates and portfolio holdings remain DATA_REQUIRED; absence of those data is a coverage limitation, not counter-evidence.
11 / BOUNDED

DOWNSIDE / VULNERABILITY RESEARCH

Vulnerabilities are conditional and evidence-bounded, with missing transmission channels disclosed.

  • Observed descriptive thresholds are not empirically validated vulnerability classifications. Transmission through borrowers, projects or balance sheets requires evidence that is not admitted here.
  • Potential downside channels are therefore conditions to monitor, not measured loss estimates or stress-test outcomes.
12 / BOUNDED

BANK/LENDER DECISION PAGE

National mortgage context and public collateral-market signals; no borrower or loan-level advice.

  • Monitor the national debt-service level and change alongside new-home price and rental-vacancy vintages, but do not map them to portfolio loss without renewal, arrears, LTV and regional exposure data.
  • Escalate when a later official aggregate changes materially or when privacy-safe cohort evidence becomes admissible; no borrower decision is supported by this report alone.

Monitoring: Named owner: credit-risk human reviewer / Next event: eligible official debt-service vintage

13 / BOUNDED

DEVELOPER DECISION PAGE

Supply-stage evidence and conversion questions; no project pipeline, presale or absorption inference.

  • Compare permits, starts, under-construction stock and completions only within matching geography-period definitions. Treat gaps as questions about delivery, not measured cancellation or conversion.
  • Monitor the next permit/start/completion vintages with local vacancy and population context; presales, absorption, costs and project schedules remain unavailable.

Monitoring: Named owner: development pipeline reviewer / Next event: matched permit/construction release

14 / BOUNDED

REIT/PENSION DECISION PAGE

Rental, construction and demographic context; no cap-rate, transaction or effective-rent claim.

  • Use primary-rental vacancy and universe size to monitor covered-market dispersion, while recognizing that effective rents, concessions, turnover, cap rates and transactions are unavailable.
  • Any allocation or valuation conclusion requires portfolio facts and licensed market evidence outside this publication's authority.

Monitoring: Named owner: real-estate investment reviewer / Next event: CMHC Rental Market Survey vintage

15 / BOUNDED

GOVERNMENT DECISION PAGE

Authorization, construction, rental and shelter-burden evidence with vintage-aware limitations.

  • Monitor authorization, starts and completions as distinct policy-chain stages and pair them with the dated rental and demographic context for each CMA.
  • Do not infer program conversion from contemporaneous stage ratios; administrative cohorts and delivery milestones would be needed for that evaluation.

Monitoring: Named owner: housing-policy reviewer / Next event: official permit, construction or rental release

16 / BOUNDED

FAMILY-OFFICE DECISION PAGE

Public market context and explicit gated fields; not investment advice or valuation.

  • The publication supports public-market monitoring and evidence diligence, not valuation, transaction underwriting or a buy/sell recommendation.
  • Before a capital decision, require transaction comps, cap rates, effective rents, ownership, financing and asset-specific condition evidence.

Monitoring: Named owner: investment-committee human reviewer / Next event: admitted public or licensed evidence; no automatic recommendation

17 / BOUNDED

ONE LAB OUTLOOK

A conditional watchlist, not a governed forecast.

  • The forward watchlist is the next official vintages of NHPI, permits, construction, rental and debt-service data. It is not a prediction of prices, rents or returns.
  • A changed conclusion requires a later admissible observation or newly admitted evidence, not an unrecorded narrative update.
18 / BOUNDED

METHODOLOGY

Deterministic registered-evidence compilation, documented thresholds and fail-closed calculations.

  • Registered observations are filtered for finite numeric values, sorted numerically, aggregated with the conventional median, rounded only for display, and bound to source/vintage receipts.
  • An independent verifier recomputes derived values from evidence bindings and rejects unsupported state promotion, non-comparable pipeline arithmetic and narrative/model disagreement.
INDEPENDENT DERIVATION RECORD

vacancy median

Inputs: 3, 3.7, 2.9, 5, 3.8, 2.8, 2.7, 2.4

Transformation: FILTER_FINITE_THEN_NUMERIC_ASCENDING_SORT; aggregation: CONVENTIONAL_MEDIAN_MEAN_OF_TWO_MIDDLE_FOR_EVEN_N; rounding: display to 2 decimal places; unrounded value retained.

Result: 2.95; displayed 2.95.

population change median

Inputs: -0.013952442985565305, 0.20517809413140853, 0.5472342735204805, 2.935030815833284, 3.0893578969682034, 1.2497739385751272, 1.5776364165168921, 0.9965451759322397

Transformation: FILTER_FINITE_THEN_NUMERIC_ASCENDING_SORT; aggregation: CONVENTIONAL_MEDIAN_MEAN_OF_TWO_MIDDLE_FOR_EVEN_N; rounding: display to 9 decimal places; unrounded value retained.

Result: 1.1231595572536834; displayed 1.123159557.

19 / FULL EVIDENCE APPENDIX

Machine-verifiable claim bindings

227 bindings. Every binding carries source, vintage, calculation, unit, geography, period and code version. The complete objects are in the downloadable evidence model.

SHOW BINDING INDEX
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:12m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:1m / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:level / Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC / 2026-07-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / 2020 constant dollars / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2021-01-01 / households / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2026-01-01 / percent / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA:change / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2026-01-01 / percentage_point_change / deterministic_percentage_point_change
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2024-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / persons / registered_observation
institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m / Statistics Canada official registered evidence / 2025-01-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:CALGARY:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:CALGARY:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:CALGARY:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:CANADA:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:CANADA:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:CANADA:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:EDMONTON:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:EDMONTON:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:EDMONTON:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:HALIFAX:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:HALIFAX:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:HALIFAX:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:MONTREAL:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:MONTREAL:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:MONTREAL:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:QUEBEC_CITY:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:QUEBEC_CITY:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:QUEBEC_CITY:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:TORONTO:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:TORONTO:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:TORONTO:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:VANCOUVER:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:VANCOUVER:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:VANCOUVER:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
nhpi:WINNIPEG:12m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:WINNIPEG:1m / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
nhpi:WINNIPEG:level / Statistics Canada table 18-10-0205-01 / 2026-07-01 / index_2016_12_100 / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_CANADA:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_CANADA:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_CANADA:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:12m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:1m / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / percent_change / deterministic_percent_change
permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:level / Statistics Canada table 34-10-0292-01 / 2026-06-01 / dwelling_units / registered_observation
rental:CALGARY:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:CALGARY:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:EDMONTON:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:EDMONTON:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:HALIFAX:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:HALIFAX:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:MONTREAL:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:MONTREAL:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:QUEBEC_CITY:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:TORONTO:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:TORONTO:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:VANCOUVER:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
rental:WINNIPEG:universe / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / apartment_units / registered_observation
rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy / CMHC 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables / 2025-10-01 / percent / registered_observation
Verification mutations: changed value / changed period / wrong unit / wrong geography / swapped source / stale vintage / chart/prose disagreement / unsupported strong conclusion / missing evidence promoted to assessed state / derived statistic disagreement. LLM numeric authority: FALSE.
EXECUTIVE DECISION BRIEF · EVIDENCE, NOT FORECAST

At 2026-07, the registered Canada NHPI total index is 120.5 (December 2016=100); its one-month change is -0.08% and twelve-month change is -2.27%.

At 2026-06, the registered Canada permit level is 28,905 dwelling units; its one-month change is +13.5% and twelve-month change is +5.8%.

At 2026-07, registered housing starts in Canadian centres of 50,000 people and over were 17,424 dwelling units; the one-month change was -7.7% and the twelve-month change was -19.8%.

The registered 2025 CMHC primary-rental slice reports October vacancy and apartment-universe estimates for 8 CMAs. It does not support an asking-rent, absorption or forecast conclusion.

Canada housing starts SAAR was 217.8 thousand annualized units at 2026-07; this is a rate, not the actual monthly start count.

The national aggregate mortgage debt-service ratio was 7.84% at 2026-01; it is not a borrower renewal or delinquency measure.

Local affordability cards describe 2020 income and 2021 Census tenure and shelter burden beside current population estimates; they do not manufacture current city affordability.

NEW-HOME PRICE BASELINE

Canada New-Home Price Intelligence

NEW-HOME PRICES ONLY · NOT RESALE-MARKET COVERAGE

CANADA · 2026-07

Canada

120.5
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M -0.08% · 12M -2.27%
TORONTO · 2026-07

Toronto

105.8
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M -0.19% · 12M -4.60%
VANCOUVER · 2026-07

Vancouver

122.5
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M -0.16% · 12M -3.39%
MONTREAL · 2026-07

Montréal

159.5
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M +0.38% · 12M +3.44%
CALGARY · 2026-07

Calgary

129.8
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M -0.08% · 12M -1.14%
EDMONTON · 2026-07

Edmonton

106.0
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M +0.00% · 12M -0.93%
WINNIPEG · 2026-07

Winnipeg

148.3
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M +0.20% · 12M +2.63%
HALIFAX · 2026-07

Halifax

128.6
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M +0.00% · 12M +1.02%
QUEBEC_CITY · 2026-07

Québec City

144.2
NHPI total · Dec 2016=100
1M +0.00% · 12M +1.76%
SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT · FIRST LIVE SLICE

Residential dwelling units authorized by permits

PERMIT AUTHORIZATIONS · NOT STARTS OR COMPLETED UNITS

At 2026-06, the registered Canada permit level is 28,905 dwelling units; its one-month change is +13.5% and twelve-month change is +5.8%.

PERMITS_CANADA · 2026-06

Canada

28,905
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +13.5% · 12M +5.8%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
b98385cbc3c718b621ac7377761b440f6825d7c11c4bdb2a7143c2514370e2ea
bytes
5698
vector / coordinate
1675207276 / 1.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_TORONTO · 2026-06

Toronto

3,446
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +29.8% · 12M +41.3%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
f75e3276fd17868e8a17befb516bea603fbaf3c59aed472a38460d0e1595ac95
bytes
5675
vector / coordinate
1675206467 / 45.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_VANCOUVER · 2026-06

Vancouver

1,313
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M -29.0% · 12M -6.5%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
e2ba1eed0599071ce8dc583e19fbd883ec194bf31055a314c98823f9476d198c
bytes
5674
vector / coordinate
1675215582 / 59.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_MONTREAL · 2026-06

Montréal

3,454
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +6.0% · 12M +16.8%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
bb33f7a1a9847492ee4317224a02d05b5148fe70c6199729e1fa829b35556f04
bytes
5675
vector / coordinate
1675212412 / 24.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_CALGARY · 2026-06

Calgary

3,416
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +78.7% · 12M +123.1%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
8d9d9915f28f612cdf2d5adab8ebe46eca0dec112c13a0bec04ef688c0e832ae
bytes
5675
vector / coordinate
1675210753 / 53.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_EDMONTON · 2026-06

Edmonton

1,804
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +5.2% · 12M -38.8%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
bac8584029d44d7c0ce38a1e36a9d418598b4d0e4f75883285f495854d013db7
bytes
5675
vector / coordinate
1675214510 / 54.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_WINNIPEG · 2026-06

Winnipeg

741
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +121.9% · 12M -13.1%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
78b4a2972961b6bcc277e50e7456c896014e977d2eb0dc4483b3db65d413ab00
bytes
5652
vector / coordinate
1675211966 / 48.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_HALIFAX · 2026-06

Halifax

344
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M -27.1% · 12M -57.9%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
79b1583d5acc65c8bccfa97b36aec6dfe172623589654003252942cfb6c151c4
bytes
5651
vector / coordinate
1675210485 / 19.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0
PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY · 2026-06

Québec City

1,009
dwelling units authorized by permits
1M +9.7% · 12M +14.8%
Period 2026-06 · source release 2026-08-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
88d36df903b3d41af8f4bacb99ec6899fd9fda1139147070500954d70523d590
response SHA-256
b61b8263e7058ac2ab71d1ce239f8b8bd8b83eebc7011a52232b27bc12253b14
bytes
5659
vector / coordinate
1675212806 / 26.4.3.2.1.0.0.0.0.0

Exact limitations

  • Permits are authorizations, not housing starts.
  • A permitted unit may be delayed, changed or never built.
  • This source alone supports no completion or absorption conclusion.

Source: Statistics Canada, table 34-10-0292-01.

SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT · CONSTRUCTION STAGES

Actual housing starts, completions and units under construction

CONSTRUCTION STAGES · ACTUAL/UNADJUSTED · NOT PERMITS, ABSORPTION OR FORECAST SUPPLY

At 2026-07, registered housing starts in Canadian centres of 50,000 people and over were 17,424 dwelling units; the one-month change was -7.7% and the twelve-month change was -19.8%.

Housing starts

CMHC_STARTS_CANADA · 2026-07

Canada — centres of 50,000+

17,424
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -7.7% · 12M -19.8%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
4a545e5005273af4f7be68e0f0c6f85e8885a397e299e38216adc14510a05591
bytes
5696
vector / coordinate
15817891 / 1.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO · 2026-07

Toronto

1,540
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -27.8% · 12M -10.5%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
cfd4a2bebc1d579909225cf3b265525ac1ce13295f37274106732e9cf99049ff
bytes
5672
vector / coordinate
42127475 / 23.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER · 2026-07

Vancouver

1,810
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -9.9% · 12M -41.8%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
f04cdd901bab44ba79f0f096624a918cc11b10832b0b7de16c9856a8c0bc1bc5
bytes
5673
vector / coordinate
42127505 / 25.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL · 2026-07

Montréal

2,458
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -18.2% · 12M +2.8%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
1ac5f4950e710aafccecaf2848ce1f36fc998ab36f80d8deff27eeded20bcd88
bytes
5672
vector / coordinate
42127565 / 29.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY · 2026-07

Calgary

1,504
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -36.5% · 12M -20.4%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
ea85da7c1fda063c306c851dd2e639ae6bd319aacab42f88e6b6c5aae73099c4
bytes
5672
vector / coordinate
42127415 / 2.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON · 2026-07

Edmonton

2,174
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +32.9% · 12M -0.8%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
2eb3cafe968def054278440b2777cdd7f8de67430a5d2c9c6a33b83e6492a73c
bytes
5670
vector / coordinate
42127625 / 4.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG · 2026-07

Winnipeg

545
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -36.0% · 12M +37.6%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
9406ab6240e46dec815c9e8a75bc5c4b4830200f11fdb256046ba3cd67bb9421
bytes
5649
vector / coordinate
42127550 / 28.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX · 2026-07

Halifax

452
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +35.3% · 12M -62.1%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
48277edd1327f8822d5a31ad25aa831cbe352af8ed86c76ac148b1508ffc0daf
bytes
5649
vector / coordinate
42127640 / 5.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY · 2026-07

Québec City

1,031
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +96.4% · 12M +47.1%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
d4b429ad3d2593c00e38e01750c29133bd3f50fc8dba8d262c6b93316ab2f05b
bytes
5654
vector / coordinate
42127325 / 14.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0

Housing completions

CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO · 2026-07

Toronto

1,009
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -24.1% · 12M -50.2%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
af616cddab44f5ca5cbcca96d297cf9b814fe50dd5011cc89149225e0a342a1a
bytes
5673
vector / coordinate
42127485 / 23.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER · 2026-07

Vancouver

2,123
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -2.2% · 12M +11.4%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
338ffaf792d85a4af89df3cdcc7dd935f9318bc1db0eafb43799ba0746b05257
bytes
5673
vector / coordinate
42127515 / 25.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL · 2026-07

Montréal

3,403
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +8.2% · 12M +6.9%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
87033872b5820273e875a4bf84ba6250e9e61923b7320c9c7dfac9531cff0b29
bytes
5672
vector / coordinate
42127575 / 29.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY · 2026-07

Calgary

1,879
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +1.5% · 12M -11.0%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
c10b0b137c3fd0d71420c0ade8a19936cc7ca26d83876789a10615c55350a153
bytes
5672
vector / coordinate
42127425 / 2.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON · 2026-07

Edmonton

1,729
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +44.7% · 12M +25.7%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
6dc7e2dcb2c043937c01d4da6ee291d35d8aca430ccb3ad407f9970d6ee1b9a1
bytes
5671
vector / coordinate
42127635 / 4.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG · 2026-07

Winnipeg

381
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -67.0% · 12M -9.1%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
4532cfade617c1592e8a8c57edfe33def4360f6cc3dd5d29cfe63d64c3c38cf6
bytes
5650
vector / coordinate
42127560 / 28.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX · 2026-07

Halifax

116
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -19.4% · 12M -41.7%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
cb75390bef15109e70867da82d1cab6cc883f77126af5640e0d36c7058c624d1
bytes
5646
vector / coordinate
42127650 / 5.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY · 2026-07

Québec City

1,746
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +306.0% · 12M +10.3%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
a28503f87e9ec87773fc06fe0ee2b20e68262a109ef9ca4620918e2bd5074105
bytes
5651
vector / coordinate
42127335 / 14.3.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0

Units under construction

CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO · 2026-07

Toronto

92,749
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +0.6% · 12M -0.5%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
56d42b2e28f8e8fc721036e076ea001e67dbc8619ca62f6eb3bd617ee4f5028a
bytes
5701
vector / coordinate
42127480 / 23.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER · 2026-07

Vancouver

59,595
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -0.5% · 12M -6.5%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
510a06914e7dfa6011bab47ccf1404dd35eeee36347772f1887d227c308fe8b2
bytes
5697
vector / coordinate
42127510 / 25.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL · 2026-07

Montréal

34,809
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -2.5% · 12M +14.1%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
82abd96153c7ecc2393a4e783e678974872c9a99e86a70ac2bb4d1611ff49af3
bytes
5697
vector / coordinate
42127570 / 29.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY · 2026-07

Calgary

24,547
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -1.5% · 12M -6.7%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
e93da633b27e42f7e9b340a12fe8d93662a9a838ba7fed2607f6d6d644122d6f
bytes
5696
vector / coordinate
42127420 / 2.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON · 2026-07

Edmonton

18,289
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +2.3% · 12M +0.2%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
8f2a7a2d3496d6b914501c3706924afe25b7b87c9c9e16897888928e0a394309
bytes
5696
vector / coordinate
42127630 / 4.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG · 2026-07

Winnipeg

9,105
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +1.8% · 12M +21.1%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
f8d1966715c24dfcb4f04d40c150d5b9de3f26ebe791fbf50c0f4eaa2588d1b2
bytes
5673
vector / coordinate
42127555 / 28.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX · 2026-07

Halifax

14,751
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M +2.3% · 12M +17.3%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
3371c2f616b30addc1423b8528c1b7ce55c58ad22ba87e0c8f55b1676b99ac36
bytes
5696
vector / coordinate
42127645 / 5.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY · 2026-07

Québec City

10,455
actual dwelling units · not SAAR
1M -7.4% · 12M +19.0%
Period 2026-07 · source release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
169f78be8719b05ceee942141af38de218e14c20142faccec0dee18ea8f941e4
response SHA-256
7d858c54e013ec32957d0f0bded6013eab17810b19f0fd9a934c0fa71301984f
bytes
5680
vector / coordinate
42127330 / 14.2.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0

Exact limitations

  • Housing starts are observed construction commencements under the CMHC survey definition; they are not permits or completed units.
  • Housing completions are a construction-stage measure; they do not establish occupancy, sale, rental absorption or tenure availability.
  • Units under construction are an inventory stock, not monthly starts, completed supply or a forecast delivery schedule.
  • The Canada starts series covers centres of 50,000 people and over; it is not an all-area national total.
  • Canada completions and under-construction inventory are not available in this registered slice; only the eight named CMAs are reported.
  • All values are actual/unadjusted dwelling units, not seasonally adjusted annual rates.

Source: Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey: CMHC Starts and Completions Survey.

SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT · SEPARATE ANNUALIZED STARTS RATE

Housing starts — seasonally adjusted annual rate

SAAR · THOUSAND DWELLING UNITS AT AN ANNUAL RATE · NOT ACTUAL MONTHLY STARTS

SAAR removes recurring seasonal patterns and annualizes the monthly pace. It is displayed apart from actual starts, completions and units under construction and cannot be added to them.

CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_CANADA · 2026-07

Canada

217.8k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M -19.4%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
094ae82ffa2b1adbd89ec66e5547962bd6444bf7793a73c1fb2c8a855e7c0196
bytes
5691
vector / coordinate
52299896 / 1.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_TORONTO · 2026-07

Toronto

18.0k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M -10.5%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
0b1dbd01e5706867b49aef363fabb2c94dbe7b52cca39ffd328d67c3e8799314
bytes
5670
vector / coordinate
52299977 / 10.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_VANCOUVER · 2026-07

Vancouver

21.5k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M -42.0%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
195aca01a38fafc1a79fa61c6afbe54705f34fd690baefa9ad5e61aed6dfb584
bytes
5667
vector / coordinate
52299980 / 16.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_MONTREAL · 2026-07

Montréal

28.9k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M +2.5%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
bf9a90179f96f328be253c4e91f9f869d81bfa402e3d1e6252a2aca002671d92
bytes
5671
vector / coordinate
52299974 / 8.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_CALGARY · 2026-07

Calgary

17.6k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M -20.5%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
38398fe5a9ee27a928992f0bac863f6c8239b8c256f0fe02bbda483d874a4c4a
bytes
5669
vector / coordinate
73880791 / 43.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_EDMONTON · 2026-07

Edmonton

24.9k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M -1.2%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
85d95fbef40de7fb165539cbe4eefd4fca9a82258f5ad545ca5051da756381ab
bytes
5671
vector / coordinate
73880792 / 44.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_WINNIPEG · 2026-07

Winnipeg

6.4k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M +41.8%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
ffe0eb532973b1d4abdf3e4f6110786df188c955dd96845b07ee9a66d2860078
bytes
5645
vector / coordinate
73880818 / 40.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_HALIFAX · 2026-07

Halifax

5.4k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M -62.1%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
42db2569507904aaa8db5cf2dae35322ccd35d826c0ef76df85b376a5dcb1905
bytes
5650
vector / coordinate
73880796 / 18.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
CMHC_STARTS_SAAR_QUEBEC_CITY · 2026-07

Québec City

12.2k
annualized rate · published in thousands
12M +47.8%
Period 2026-07 · release 2026-08-19 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
48374a2bb693256bea75a4c4d44a88a85a4eff0d5f872f900a90da1c08c4250e
bytes
5652
vector / coordinate
73880806 / 22.1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
RENTAL & MULTIFAMILY · PRIMARY-RENTAL SURVEY SLICE

Primary-rental apartment vacancy and survey universe

CMHC RENTAL MARKET SURVEY · OCTOBER · EIGHT CMAs · NOT ASKING RENT OR ABSORPTION

The registered 2025 CMHC primary-rental slice reports October vacancy and apartment-universe estimates for 8 CMAs. It does not support an asking-rent, absorption or forecast conclusion.

CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_TORONTO · 2025-10

Toronto

3.0%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
336,180
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +0.5 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_VANCOUVER · 2025-10

Vancouver

3.7%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
127,091
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +2.1 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_MONTREAL · 2025-10

Montréal

2.9%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
667,266
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +0.8 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_CALGARY · 2025-10

Calgary

5.0%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
62,657
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +0.2 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_EDMONTON · 2025-10

Edmonton

3.8%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
90,595
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +0.7 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_WINNIPEG · 2025-10

Winnipeg

2.8%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
75,154
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +1.1 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_HALIFAX · 2025-10

Halifax

2.7%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
62,411
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +0.6 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401
CMHC_RMS_PRIMARY_VACANCY_RATE_QUEBEC_CITY · 2025-10

Québec City

2.4%
primary-rental vacancy estimate
118,693
apartments in the RMS universe
12M vacancy change +1.5 pp
Survey 2025-10 · release 2025-12-11 · artifact vintage 2026-07-29 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
0d513479826425d2b52d181464a44afa054a21b9bd52572ee8b6733ba9f2de45
request SHA-256
b620eaa05dd30061698834fd120e8ee6f5d43b7a87266f96c78d3314080f854b
response SHA-256
ac2f4157917a6efed405f6da67751ef3c32d378f27fdff602f99a12d84d813ea
bytes
74401

Exact limitations

  • Vacancy estimates and apartment-universe counts cover privately initiated apartment structures of three units and over in the eight named CMAs.
  • The registered slice does not cover asking rents, occupied-stock rent levels, turnover, condominium rentals, social or affordable housing, unit mix, completions or absorption.
  • The apartment universe is a survey-frame count, not new rental supply or completed units in the survey year.
  • Vacancy is an annual October survey estimate; the 12-month change is a percentage-point difference, not a percent change or causal effect.
  • Model input and forecast eligibility remain disabled; GATE-1 is open.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2025 Rental Market Survey data tables.

MORTGAGE & HOUSEHOLD CREDIT · OFFICIAL NATIONAL AGGREGATES

Mortgage liabilities and debt-service context

Observed Statistics Canada national aggregates are separated from borrower renewal schedules, delinquency, regional concentration and scenarios. No borrower-level or sensitive record is present.

STATCAN_CREDIT_MORTGAGE_STOCK_CANADA · 2026-01

Mortgage liabilities stock

2,427,915
millions of dollars · Canada only
12M +4.46%
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
1c722c8003846559a6d90c1d8413a73e04322540d2ea582931d559f1b1e8d635
bytes
2951
coordinate
1.16.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
STATCAN_CREDIT_MORTGAGE_FLOW_CANADA · 2026-01

Mortgage liabilities flow

22,617
millions of dollars · Canada only
12M -14.94%
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
380a7f71d154f15f9228b11ca079690d76f1471f630fb6388b9442012bafdbb3
bytes
2925
coordinate
1.10.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
STATCAN_CREDIT_CREDIT_DEBT_TO_DISPOSABLE_INCOME_CANADA · 2026-01

Credit-market debt to disposable income

179.55
ratio · Canada only
12M +2.40%
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
6ac869d4e82b28194bcda72e5d869a418944825bdaf286763f69ba48170095e6
bytes
2915
coordinate
1.11.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA · 2026-01

Mortgage debt-service ratio

7.84%
percent · Canada only
12M -0.04 pp
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
896b57bb4d580d6c36c72170c0b5766bfa20bd05104a12e0883afe30f6c1f548
bytes
2890
coordinate
1.1.23.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_PAYMENTS_CANADA · 2026-01

Mortgage debt payments

155,420
millions of dollars · Canada only
12M +1.35%
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
4209ba52959883e0fccf74fd9ebd85ed68200f064bf14c5b37a80e273d8abd2b
bytes
2939
coordinate
1.1.14.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_OBLIGATED_MORTGAGE_PRINCIPAL_CANADA · 2026-01

Obligated mortgage principal

54,684
millions of dollars · Canada only
12M +4.39%
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
44600d50e7c99b8f31201c443284cd4defc48a2e1557c2e0a84435512becf199
bytes
2927
coordinate
1.1.17.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_INTEREST_PAID_CANADA · 2026-01

Mortgage interest paid

100,736
millions of dollars · Canada only
12M -0.23%
Period 2026-01 · release 2026-06-12 · retrieved 2026-08-30
EVIDENCE RECEIPT
capture
05896c60051bfc42241a6ef15fda7b9bde77cfd13e8bdaf99491d6090fe66b0f
response SHA-256
c3ab422fcc007f99918ea38017dae778fff1c5330913caa0ee9dbecadb12253b
bytes
2935
coordinate
1.1.20.0.0.0.0.0.0.0
AFFORDABILITY & DEMOGRAPHIC DEMAND · EIGHT-CMA REGISTERED BASELINE

Local income, tenure, shelter burden, population and migration

Income refers to 2020, tenure and shelter burden to the 2021 Census, and population/migration to their published estimate periods. These vintages remain visible and are never blended into a synthetic current-affordability number.

Toronto

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$97,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$85,000
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
65.1% / 34.9%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.7
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
25.1% / 40.0%
POPULATION / 12M
7,108,874 · -0.0%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
126,565
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
115,348 / -12,698 / -44,792

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Vancouver

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$90,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$79,500
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
62.1% / 37.9%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.5
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
24.3% / 38.3%
POPULATION / 12M
3,088,036 · +0.2%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
82,420
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
42,030 / -4,656 / -10,098

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Montréal

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$76,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$65,500
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
54.4% / 45.6%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.3
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
12.7% / 27.7%
POPULATION / 12M
4,597,837 · +0.5%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
106,360
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
37,629 / -6,114 / 17,635

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Calgary

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$100,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$87,000
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
70.5% / 29.5%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.6
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
17.5% / 34.1%
POPULATION / 12M
1,836,012 · +2.9%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
43,750
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
28,535 / 11,195 / 9,608

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Edmonton

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$96,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$84,000
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
68.8% / 31.2%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.6
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
16.3% / 35.7%
POPULATION / 12M
1,692,385 · +3.1%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
46,480
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
21,666 / 11,742 / 8,972

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Winnipeg

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$83,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$71,500
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
65.7% / 34.3%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.5
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
10.7% / 35.7%
POPULATION / 12M
951,758 · +1.2%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
22,220
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
16,254 / -3,463 / -1,559

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Halifax

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$81,000
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$69,500
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
58.7% / 41.3%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.3
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
10.8% / 36.5%
POPULATION / 12M
544,834 · +1.6%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
18,250
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
8,207 / 1,098 / -788

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

Québec City

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME · 2020
$76,500
AFTER-TAX · 2020
$65,500
OWNER / RENTER SHARE · 2021
58.3% / 41.7%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE · 2021
2.1
OWNER / RENTER 30%+ SHELTER BURDEN · 2021
7.8% / 23.4%
POPULATION / 12M
903,607 · +1.0%
2016→2021 NET HOUSEHOLD COUNT CHANGE
23,470
IMMIGRANTS / NET INTERPROVINCIAL / NET NPR
8,471 / 400 / -757

Intercensal net household-count change is not gross or current household formation. Population and migration are not housing demand or causal effects.

INSTITUTIONAL DECISION MODES

Bank / lender mode

Registered support: National mortgage stock, flow, debt service, interest and obligated principal context.

UNKNOWN / GATED: Renewal cohorts, payment resets, arrears, insured/uninsured, fixed/variable, LTV and borrower sensitivity remain GATED.

Government mode

Registered support: Separate permit, actual construction, SAAR, census shelter burden, tenure, population and migration evidence.

UNKNOWN / GATED: Current local taxes, utilities, insurance costs and household formation remain UNKNOWN.

REIT / investor mode

Registered support: Construction-stage, primary-rental, tenure, population and migration context with exact evidence receipts.

UNKNOWN / GATED: Transactions, cap rates, lease comps, absorption and portfolio insurance/climate data require licensed providers.

Developer mode

Registered support: Permits, actual starts, completions, under-construction stock and separately labelled SAAR by geography.

UNKNOWN / GATED: Project/presale pipeline, construction duration, cancellations, sales and absorption remain UNKNOWN or licensed-data GATED.

CANADA INSTITUTIONAL DECISION LAYER · CUSTOMER-ZERO

Evidence beside exposure. Scenarios without pretending to forecast.

Import non-sensitive aggregate holdings in your browser. The file is not sent to The One Lab, is not persisted, and cannot contain addresses, people, tenants, borrowers, accounts or loan identifiers. Registered public evidence remains separate from customer inputs.

Bank / lender

DECISIONS
  • Where is aggregate collateral and debt concentrated?
  • How does a customer-defined NOI/debt-service stress change aggregate coverage?
REGISTERED / CUSTOMER INPUT

official national mortgage/debt-service context · registered local population, income and shelter-burden context · customer-supplied aggregate holdings

UNKNOWN / GATED

renewal schedules · arrears · borrower LTV · loan-level performance

REIT / investor

DECISIONS
  • Where are units and value concentrated?
  • Which public supply, rental and demographic signals are available beside each geography?
REGISTERED / CUSTOMER INPUT

registered construction and primary-rental evidence · registered local demographic context · customer-supplied aggregate holdings

UNKNOWN / GATED

market cap rates · transactions · achieved rents · institutional flows

Developer

DECISIONS
  • How does owned pipeline exposure align with permits and construction stages?
  • Which missing pipeline inputs block a delivery or absorption conclusion?
REGISTERED / CUSTOMER INPUT

permits · actual starts · actual completions · units under construction

UNKNOWN / GATED

project pipeline · presales · cancellations · absorption · delivered supply

Government

DECISIONS
  • Where do authorizations, construction stages, rental vacancy and shelter burden diverge?
  • Which local inputs remain too stale or unavailable for a current affordability conclusion?
REGISTERED / CUSTOMER INPUT

registered official public sources and vintages · customer-supplied aggregate program holdings if provided

UNKNOWN / GATED

current local taxes · insurance · utilities · current household formation

Private local portfolio import

CSV or JSON fields: holding_id, geography, property_type, units; optional aggregate gross_asset_value_cad, annual_noi_cad, debt_balance_cad, annual_debt_service_cad and four aggregate debt-maturity buckets. Geography is Canada or one of the eight report CMAs. Holding IDs must be non-identifying tokens. Maturity buckets are customer exposure—not inferred renewal schedules.

Download the header-only aggregate CSV template →

NO FILE PROCESSED · LOCAL ONLY

Relative value

A customer-implied NOI yield is calculated only when every row supplies aggregate NOI and gross asset value. Market relative value is always REFUSED until licensed cap-rate, transaction and relevant resale/lease evidence is registered.

UNKNOWN · import aggregate holdings

Deterministic stress

Runs the registered Compute Plane entrypoint simulation.deterministic-stress@1. Shocks are customer supplied. No default, calibration, probability or forecast is inserted.

UNKNOWN · aggregate NOI/debt service and explicit shocks required
LICENSED PROVIDER ADAPTERS · 7
LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

CREA and local real-estate boards

Delivery: Documented API, SFTP or licensed bulk export with stable listing and transaction IDs plus corrections.

Fields: list/sale/close dates; list and sale price; status and DOM/CDOM; property type and tenure; bed/bath/floor and lot area; new/resale flag; geography; relist/cancellation/termination; revision flags

History / frequency / geography: Event and transaction history including corrected, withdrawn and expired records. Daily preferred; monthly aggregates do not support liquidity cohorts. Property or dissemination-area precision with licensed board/CMA crosswalks.

Rights required: capture; archival vintages; model/feature engineering; AI-assisted analysis; commercial/customer reports; derived public display; post-termination audit retention

Unlocks: resale price and liquidity · sales-to-new-listings · DOM · cancellations · local transaction mix · resale regime

LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

Teranet–National Bank

Delivery: Licensed API/export and dated release artifacts with methodology identity.

Fields: index family; geography; property segment; reference period; publication/retrieval time; level/change; methodology version; revision status; artifact identity

History / frequency / geography: Full index history and release-vintage history; current revised history alone is insufficient. Monthly. National, provincial and metropolitan with exact boundaries.

Rights required: capture; archive; model/AI; commercial reports; derived public display; historical-vintage retention

Unlocks: repeat-sales confirmation · resale turning-point analysis · licensed commercial index display

LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

Rental listing and executed-lease providers

Delivery: API, SFTP or bulk event feed with stable IDs and revision/deletion events.

Fields: listing/lease ID; event timestamps; asking and achieved rent; incentives; unit/property type; bed/bath/floor area; purpose-built/condo; availability; lease term; geography; withdrawal and quality flags

History / frequency / geography: Event-level listings and executed leases with corrections, not current inventory only. Daily or weekly. Address/postal precision internally with licensed public aggregation floors.

Rights required: capture; archive; model/AI; commercial/customer reports; derived public aggregates; post-termination evidence retention

Unlocks: achieved rents · concessions · days on market · lease velocity · turnover · granular rental absorption

LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

Commercial transaction and cap-rate providers

Delivery: API/export with stable transaction IDs, methodology and restatement stream.

Fields: transaction ID/date/value; asset type/subtype; units/area; occupancy; NOI definition/period; cap rate and derivation; buyer/seller category; financing; location; portfolio flag; revision history

History / frequency / geography: Complete transaction history and restatements, including inferred-value methodology. Event-level, at least monthly refresh. Property-level internally with licensed public aggregation rules.

Rights required: capture; archive; derived calculations; model/AI; commercial display; benchmarking; audit retention

Unlocks: market cap rates · transaction liquidity · institutional flows · valuation spreads · commercial-property implications

LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

Mortgage, servicing and credit providers

Delivery: Secure clean room, API or encrypted export under privacy and re-identification controls.

Fields: anonymous loan ID; origination/renewal dates; balance; rate/type/term/amortization/payment; property geography/type/value; insured status; LTV/GDS/TDS; arrears days; modification/prepayment/default; lawful income/employment fields

History / frequency / geography: Monthly performance from origination through closure with definition changes and restatements. Monthly minimum. Regional concentration only above contractual privacy floors.

Rights required: capture; archive; privacy-safe aggregation; model/AI; commercial reports; audit/regulatory evidence; cloud processing; post-termination reproducibility

Unlocks: renewal wall · payment resets · equity/LTV · arrears cohorts · employment sensitivity · regional credit concentration

LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

Development and presale pipeline providers

Delivery: API/export with stable project/unit IDs and event-sourced status changes.

Fields: project/unit ID; geography; developer and tenure; unit mix; status dates; permits; sales launch; sales/absorption; cancellations/deposits; asking/achieved price; construction stage; expected completion; revision reason

History / frequency / geography: Dated project/unit event history and snapshots; marketing pages are insufficient. Weekly/monthly plus events. Project/property internally with licensed public aggregation.

Rights required: capture; archive/reconstruction; model/AI; commercial reports; derived public display; customer use

Unlocks: presale absorption · cancellations · inventory overhang · delivery risk · future local pipeline

LICENCE REQUIRED NO CAPTURE

Climate hazard and insurance providers

Delivery: Versioned geospatial API, tiles or bulk files with methodology and checksums.

Fields: hazard/scenario/return period; geospatial resolution; event/loss history; vulnerability; policy availability; premium/deductible/coverage; claims/non-renewal; model version

History / frequency / geography: Hazard-model vintages, events, claim revisions and boundary changes. Annual models plus event and policy updates. Parcel/small area internally; privacy/licence-compliant aggregation publicly.

Rights required: capture; geospatial archive; model/AI; commercial reports; derived risk classes; public tiles/display; post-termination reproducibility

Unlocks: portfolio climate exposure · insurance affordability/availability · hazard-adjusted valuation · physical-risk scenarios

AUTHORITY BOUNDARY JSON
{
  "interfaceVersion": "housing.institutional-decision.v1",
  "authority": "EVIDENCE_AND_CUSTOMER_SCENARIO_ONLY",
  "forecastAuthorized": false,
  "gradeAuthorized": false,
  "modelInputAuthorized": false,
  "sourceSupersessionAuthorized": false,
  "aionAuthorized": false,
  "gate1": "OPEN_UNCHANGED"
}
INSTITUTIONAL REPORT V2 · LICENSED-INTELLIGENCE READY

Decision support that refuses to manufacture the missing market.

The public-data foundation is complete. This layer defines the premium analytics, licensed-data activation points, Compute receipts and buyer packages. A module lights up only when its exact evidence and rights contract is admitted. Until then it says UNKNOWN, REFUSED or DATA_REQUIRED.

ONE-PAGE EXECUTIVE DECISION BRIEF · CURRENT BOUNDARY

What happened?

Registered public evidence describes new-home prices, authorizations, construction stages, primary-rental vacancy, national credit aggregates and local demographic context.

Why does it matter?

It establishes comparable, vintage-aware context while preventing permits, starts, completions, resale prices, cap rates and credit performance from being conflated.

Who should care?

Banks, investors, developers and governments can inspect the same evidence through role-specific decision questions and customer aggregate exposure.

What decision changes?

Evidence can narrow diligence and stress questions. Market ranking, valuation, investment advice and governed Housing forecasts remain unavailable.

What supports it?

Every live number retains registered source, measure, vintage, retrieval, hash, byte-length, calculation and limitation evidence.

What is unknown?

Resale liquidity, cap rates, transactions, effective rents, renewal schedules, arrears, institutional flows and project pipelines require licences.

Premium analytical architecture

AnalysisCurrent stateDecisionActivation evidenceMethod after admission
Market regimeDATA_REQUIRED
Public evidence does not contain licensed resale liquidity and price breadth; no regime label is issued.		Distinguish expansion, deceleration, correction, liquidity freeze and recovery by market.licensed resale price · sales · listings · inventory · DOM · sale-to-list · registered supply/rental/credit contextVintage-pinned multivariate state classifier with a registered benchmark and minimum-evidence rule.
Market rankingREFUSED
A convenient ranking would conceal missing resale, transaction and cap-rate evidence.		Compare markets on compatible price, liquidity, income, supply, rental and risk evidence.licensed resale and transaction evidence · compatible geography · registered weighting policy · minimum coverageDimension-level scores first; composite rank only after weights and missing-data policy are registered.
Supply pressureOBSERVED_EVIDENCE_ONLY
Registered public evidence supports stage observations, not forward supply or absorption conclusions.		Identify where authorizations, starts, construction inventory and completions diverge.registered permits · actual starts · actual completions · units under construction · licensed project pipeline for forward conclusionsStage-aligned ratios and changes; never treat permits as starts or completions.
Affordability pressureDATA_REQUIRED
Public vintages are useful context but current local prices, taxes, insurance and utilities are incomplete.		Measure local ownership and rental burden with concept-compatible local inputs.current local household income · licensed resale or rent levels · mortgage rates · local taxes · insurance · utilities · tenureLocal cash-flow burden by tenure and household cohort with visible source periods.
Mortgage / credit stressDATA_REQUIRED
Official national stocks and debt service do not provide renewal schedules, arrears or regional cohort performance.		Locate renewal, payment-reset and delinquency exposure without borrower inference.privacy-safe maturity cohorts · rates and payment resets · insured status · LTV bands · arrears/delinquency · regional privacy floorsAggregate cohort transition and deterministic/probabilistic stress under separately registered semantics.
Rental tightnessOBSERVED_EVIDENCE_ONLY
Primary-rental vacancy is live; effective rent, concessions, turnover and granular absorption remain unavailable.		Separate occupied-stock vacancy from asking/effective rent and lease velocity.registered CMHC primary-rental vacancy · licensed asking/effective rents · concessions · lease events · unit mixSurvey-universe vacancy beside event-based rent/lease measures; never merge universes silently.
Portfolio concentrationUNKNOWN
Calculated only after a customer imports aggregate holdings locally.		Measure customer exposure by geography and property type.customer aggregate holdingsShares of units and, only when complete, customer-supplied gross asset value.
Scenario sensitivityUNKNOWN
No scenario is executed until customer inputs and shocks are supplied.		Show how explicit customer NOI and debt-service shocks affect aggregate coverage.customer aggregate NOI · customer aggregate debt service · explicit shock valuesRegistered deterministic Compute Plane stress with per-market contribution.
Geography diversificationCUSTOMER_DERIVED_ONLY
Exposure shares can be calculated locally; diversification quality or recommendations remain UNKNOWN.		Expose concentration without asserting an optimal allocation.customer aggregate holdings · licensed comparable market risk evidence for recommendationCustomer exposure shares now; optimization only under a separate registered objective and constraints.
Downside-risk decompositionUNKNOWN
Available only after a complete local portfolio and explicit customer scenario.		Attribute an explicit deterministic adverse scenario across customer markets.customer aggregate NOI/debt service · explicit customer shocks · licensed probability/loss evidence for expected riskAllocate customer-defined NOI loss plus debt-service increase; never call it expected loss or VaR.
Cross-border comparisonDATA_REQUIRED
The United States side remains contract-only; FHFA is time-gated and capture-only after the boundary.		Compare Canada and the United States only on matched concepts and vintages.report-eligible US modules · registered geography/unit/seasonality crosswalk · point-in-time FX where monetary · Track O ruling for native FHFA report useMeasure-by-measure comparison; no composite rank until all compatibility checks pass.

Compute-powered decision support

Regression, time-series, probabilistic, Monte Carlo, stress, optimization and spatial paths share a manifest, cutoff, benchmark, calibration, refusal and quarantine contract. Only deterministic customer stress is connected to the Housing interface; research proofs grant no Housing forecast authority.

SYNTHETIC_OR_PUBLIC_RESEARCH_ONLY

regression

regression.ols@1

Features: Named feature, unit, transformation, geography, period, source/evidence ID and missingness policy.

Cutoff: Every row must be available at or before the manifest cutoff; later revisions are different inputs.

Benchmark/calibration: Intercept/naive baseline plus registered OLS proof. Out-of-sample residual and coefficient-stability diagnostics; no Housing forecast issuance.

Refuses: post-cutoff leakage · unregistered feature · insufficient observations · restricted source

SYNTHETIC_OR_PUBLIC_RESEARCH_ONLY

time-series

time-series.seasonal-naive@1

Features: Exact series identity, frequency, seasonal period, revisions and cutoff.

Cutoff: No observation with availability after cutoff.

Benchmark/calibration: Seasonal-naive registered baseline. Rolling-origin error and interval coverage when intervals exist.

Refuses: mixed vintage · frequency drift · insufficient seasonal history

DATA_REQUIRED

probabilistic

housing.probabilistic.interface@1

Features: Distribution family, target semantics, conditioning set and availability timestamp.

Cutoff: Immutable target and feature cutoff.

Benchmark/calibration: Empirical/naive distribution declared before evaluation. Reliability, sharpness, PIT/rank diagnostics and proper scoring rules.

Refuses: no registered target · no lawful features · uncalibrated probability

CONTRACT_READY_NO_HOUSING_EXECUTION

monte-carlo

monte-carlo.pi@1 proof / housing interface inert

Features: Seed, generator, distribution, dependence and parameter provenance are immutable inputs.

Cutoff: All calibrated parameters bind to an evidence cutoff.

Benchmark/calibration: Deterministic reconstruction and fixed-seed repeat. Simulation diagnostics, convergence and empirical coverage.

Refuses: missing seed · assumed distribution presented as observed · unregistered dependence

REGISTERED_CUSTOMER_SCENARIO

stress-testing

simulation.deterministic-stress@1

Features: No hidden default or calibrated parameter; every shock is customer supplied.

Cutoff: Customer input receipt time; no external future data.

Benchmark/calibration: Unshocked customer aggregate. Not applicable: deterministic scenario, not calibrated probability.

Refuses: missing NOI/debt service · missing shock · negative multiplicative amount

CONTRACT_READY_NO_HOUSING_EXECUTION

optimization

optimization.quadratic@1

Features: Objective, constraints, units, feasibility tolerance and customer authority must be explicit.

Cutoff: All coefficients and constraints bind to one manifest cutoff.

Benchmark/calibration: Feasible incumbent and no-change allocation. Independent feasibility, objective and KKT reconstruction.

Refuses: unstated objective · missing constraints · market facts UNKNOWN

SYNTHETIC_OR_PUBLIC_RESEARCH_ONLY

spatial

spatial.network-accessibility@1

Features: CRS, boundary vintage, topology, geocoder and aggregation/privacy floor.

Cutoff: Geometry/network versions and evidence availability bind to cutoff.

Benchmark/calibration: Independent Bellman–Ford/accessibility reconstruction. Topology validity, edge sensitivity and boundary-change diagnostics.

Refuses: CRS ambiguity · boundary mismatch · unlicensed address · privacy floor failure

MODEL MANIFEST + ENSEMBLE BOUNDARY
{
  "manifest": {
    "interfaceVersion": "housing.compute-manifest.v1",
    "required": [
      "manifest_id",
      "code_commit",
      "algorithm_entrypoint",
      "target_contract",
      "feature_contracts",
      "input_evidence_ids",
      "vintage_cutoff",
      "seed_or_not_applicable",
      "parameters_with_provenance",
      "benchmark",
      "calibration_plan",
      "environment_lock",
      "authority_boundary"
    ],
    "output": [
      "artifact hashes",
      "input snapshot hash",
      "execution receipt",
      "independent verification",
      "refusals",
      "quarantine status",
      "forecast=false unless separately authorized"
    ],
    "authority": {
      "gate1": "OPEN_UNCHANGED",
      "forecast": false,
      "grade": false,
      "aion": false,
      "sourceSupersession": false
    }
  },
  "ensemble": {
    "status": "INERT_ARCHITECTURE",
    "admission": "A candidate must beat its preregistered benchmark out of sample, pass calibration and reconstruction, and use only lawful registered inputs.",
    "weighting": "UNKNOWN until a registered ensemble rule and evaluation record exist.",
    "refusal": "No convenient averaging; a missing, quarantined or semantically incompatible member cannot be silently dropped.",
    "output": "No Housing ensemble output or forecast is currently authorized."
  }
}

Licensed-data acquisition roadmap

These are procurement specifications, not accepted terms. Every right remains REQUIRED_NOT_CONFIRMED; no provider data or credential is captured.

P0

Acquire the minimum evidence needed for the $50K product: resale liquidity/price, effective rents, CRE transactions/cap rates, development/presales and privacy-safe mortgage/credit performance.

resale-hpi · resale-sales · resale-listings · resale-inventory · resale-dom · sale-to-list · cre-transactions · cap-rates · effective-rents · development-presales · mortgage-servicing · credit-performance

P1

Add ownership and capital-flow attribution after P0 market facts are contractually usable.

ownership · capital-flows

P2

Add climate/insurance enrichment only after asset-geography processing and display rights are explicit.

climate-insurance

Priority / categoryPreferred / alternativesExact fieldsHistory · geography · refreshAccess / effortRightsUnlocks
P0 · Resale HPI / pricesTeranet–National Bank HPI licensed data
CREA MLS® HPI under an explicit analytics licence · Local-board aggregate price series under board-specific terms		index family; index level; month; publication timestamp; geography code and boundary; property segment; seasonal adjustment; methodology version; revision flag; artifact identityFull monthly history plus dated release vintages and revisions.
Canada, province and covered CMA; exact boundaries required.
Monthly release feed.		API or versioned file export with release artifacts.
3–5 engineering weeks after contract and sample delivery.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedresale price regime · turning-point evidence · price comparison · reproducible price features
P0 · Resale salesCREA and participating local boards
Board-specific MLS® data agreements · Teranet registered-transfer aggregates where lawful and concept-compatible		listing ID; sale/close date; sale status; sale price; property type; tenure; new/resale flag; geography; board; revision/deletion flagEvent history including corrections, withdrawals and restatements.
Property or small-area internally, with licensed CMA/municipal aggregates.
Daily events; monthly frozen snapshots.		Licensed API/SFTP/bulk event stream with stable IDs.
6–10 weeks across national and board contracts.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedsales momentum · liquidity regimes · resale mix · local market ranking
P0 · ListingsCREA and participating local boards
Board-specific MLS® feeds · Authorized brokerage consortium feed		listing ID; list date; status events; original/current list price; property type; geography; relist link; withdrawn/expired/terminated flags; revision timestampAll listing events, not current active inventory only.
Property/small-area internally; licensed aggregation floors publicly.
Daily or intra-day events.		Permissioned MLS® API or SFTP event feed; DDF display feed alone is not assumed sufficient.
6–10 weeks with sales adapter.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmednew listings · listing cohorts · withdrawals · supply-demand balance
P0 · InventoryDerived from licensed CREA/local-board listing events
Board-published licensed month-end inventory · Authorized brokerage feed		listing ID; active interval; status; snapshot timestamp; list price; property type; geography; quality/revision flagDaily events plus immutable month-end snapshots.
CMA, municipality and property type where licensed.
Daily; official month-end freeze.		Same event feed as listings with archival snapshot right.
2–3 weeks after listings feed.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedactive inventory · months of inventory · market depth · liquidity stress
P0 · Days on marketCREA/local boards with DOM and CDOM definitions
Derived from licensed event history · Board aggregate DOM series		listing ID; list/status/sale dates; DOM; CDOM; relist linkage; board definition; property type; geographyEvent history sufficient to reconstruct relists and definition changes.
CMA/municipality/property type.
Daily; monthly aggregates.		Licensed listing-event feed and definition documentation.
2–4 weeks after listing history.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedtime-to-liquidity · stale inventory · cohort analysis · seller-pressure signals
P0 · Sale-to-listCREA/local boards
Derived from licensed sale and listing events · Board-published aggregate ratio		listing ID; original list price; final list price; sale price; sale date; relist linkage; property type; geography; revision flagMatched listing-sale events with corrections.
CMA/municipality/property type.
Daily events; monthly aggregation.		Licensed matched MLS® event feed.
2–3 weeks after sale/listing adapters.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmednegotiation pressure · seller leverage · price-discovery regime · market ranking
P0 · Commercial transactionsAltus Data Studio
MSCI Real Capital Analytics · CoStar Canada subject to field and rights review		transaction ID; sale date; price; asset type/subtype; units/area; location; buyer/seller; financing; portfolio flag; revision statusComplete available transaction history with restatements and stable IDs.
Property level internally; licensed metro/market aggregates.
Continuous or monthly.		Documented API/data feed, not manual web extraction.
5–8 weeks.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedtransaction liquidity · comparable sales · capital-market regime · institutional activity
P0 · Cap ratesAltus Data Studio
MSCI Real Assets indexes/transactions · CoStar Canada		transaction/observation ID; cap rate; NOI definition and period; price; occupancy; asset subtype; quality class; geography; date; observed/derived flag; methodology versionObservation-level history and methodology/restatement trail.
Metro/submarket/property type; minimum sample disclosure.
Monthly or event-level.		API/export with derivation metadata.
4–7 weeks with transaction adapter.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedmarket cap rates · valuation spreads · relative value · pricing dislocation
P1 · OwnershipMSCI Real Capital Analytics
Altus Data Studio stakeholder records · Provincial land-registry provider under explicit bulk rights		property ID; legal/beneficial owner category; acquisition/disposition dates; ownership share; parent entity; asset type; location; source and confidence; revision historyOwnership chain and entity-linkage vintages.
Property internally; market aggregates under disclosure rules.
Event-driven/monthly.		API/cloud/file delivery with stable entity and property IDs.
6–10 weeks including entity resolution.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedowner concentration · peer exposure · buyer/seller cohorts · portfolio mapping
P1 · Capital flowsMSCI Real Capital Analytics
Altus Data Studio derived transaction flows · CBRE/JLL research only if redistribution and model rights are explicit		transaction ID; buyer/seller category; capital origin; asset type; value; geography; date; portfolio flag; cross-border flag; revisionTransaction-linked flow history across cycles.
National, metro, asset type and lawful origin/destination groupings.
Monthly/quarterly.		API/cloud delivery or licensed bulk export.
3–5 weeks after transaction/ownership adapters.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedinstitutional flows · cross-border capital · buyer rotation · liquidity attribution
P0 · Rents / effective rentsUrbanation UrbanRental / Canadian Multi-Family Rental Database
CoStar multifamily · Yardi Matrix subject to Canadian coverage · Licensed marketplace and executed-lease feed		listing/lease ID; asking rent; achieved/effective rent; concession; lease term; unit type; bedrooms; floor area; availability; purpose-built/condo flag; geography; event timestampListing and executed-lease events with revisions, not current advertisements only.
Submarket/building internally with licensed aggregation floors.
Daily/weekly; frozen monthly cohorts.		API/SFTP/bulk events with stable IDs.
5–9 weeks; coverage varies by market.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedeffective rent · concessions · lease velocity · turnover · granular absorption
P0 · Development / presalesAltus Data Studio new homes and development applications
Urbanation Condominium Market Survey · Provincial/municipal pipeline licences plus developer feeds		project/unit ID; status dates; tenure; unit mix; launch; sales; absorption; cancellation; deposit; asking/achieved price; construction stage; expected completion; revision reasonEvent-sourced project/unit history and dated snapshots.
Project/submarket/municipality; exact published coverage varies by product.
Weekly/monthly plus status events.		API/export with stable project and unit identity.
6–12 weeks by market.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedpresale absorption · cancellations · inventory overhang · delivery risk · future pipeline
P0 · Mortgage / servicingConsortium or servicer-contributed privacy-safe aggregate feed
CMHC/OSFI regulated submissions under an approved agreement · TransUnion or Equifax custom aggregate analytics		anonymous cohort ID; origination/renewal month; balance; rate type; term; amortization; payment; insured flag; aggregate LTV band; arrears band; prepayment/modification; region; property typeMonthly cohort performance through closure with definition changes.
Region only above contractual privacy thresholds.
Monthly.		Clean room or encrypted aggregate export; no raw sensitive borrower records.
10–16 weeks including privacy/security review.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedrenewal exposure · payment reset · insured/uninsured mix · arrears cohorts · regional credit stress
P0 · Credit performanceTransUnion Canada custom aggregate analytics
Equifax Canada portfolio/market analytics · Lender consortium aggregate feed		product; balance band; risk tier; delinquency days; vintage; origination; payment; region; cure/default; definition version; sample/privacy floorMonthly performance history across a full credit cycle.
Province/CMA only where privacy and sample floors permit.
Monthly/quarterly.		Aggregate API/file or clean room; no identifiable consumer file.
8–14 weeks including privacy and model-use review.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmeddelinquency regime · credit migration · employment sensitivity · regional concentration · lender benchmarks
P2 · Climate / insuranceMSCI Real Estate Climate Risk / physical-risk data
Guidewire HazardHub for Canada address-level hazards · CatIQ for Canadian catastrophe loss/exposure history		hazard; scenario/return period; location resolution; exposure; damage/loss metric; vulnerability; time horizon; model version; premium/coverage where available; claims/event revisionHazard-model vintages plus CatIQ event/loss revisions where licensed.
Asset internally; FSA/market aggregation under contract.
Annual models plus event updates.		Versioned API/geospatial bulk files and CatIQ exports where procured.
8–14 weeks plus geospatial QA.		archive/model/report/display: not confirmedphysical-risk overlay · insurance availability context · hazard-adjusted scenario · portfolio climate concentration
LICENCE ACCEPTANCE CHECKLIST
  • Provider supplies a field-level data dictionary, sample, coverage inventory and correction/revision mechanism.
  • Contract separately states capture, archive, model/AI, commercial-report, customer-output, public-display, redistribution and post-termination audit rights.
  • One Lab can retain source/artifact hashes and sufficient evidence to reproduce historical customer work after termination.
  • Geography boundaries, privacy floors, attribution language, derived-output rules and subprocessors are explicit.
  • No credential, capture or real provider value enters the adapter before Director acceptance of the licence.

$50K institutional Housing Intelligence package

Evidence-led decision support; not investment advice, valuation, legal advice or a governed forecast.

LIVE_FOUNDATION

Flagship report

Evidence-backed Canada publication with decision modes and explicit missing-data ledger.

ROADMAP

Quarterly update

Blocked until a versioned publication cadence and licensed inputs are contracted.

LIVE_FOUNDATION

Live terminal

Current registered public evidence, freshness, receipts and gated modules.

LIVE_FOUNDATION

Scenario lab

Local-only deterministic customer NOI/debt-service stress; no prediction.

LIVE_FOUNDATION

Portfolio overlay

Local-only aggregate geography/property-type/value/debt/maturity exposure.

ROADMAP

API / export

Requires customer authentication, contract-specific redistribution rights and secure processing authorization.

LIVE_FOUNDATION

Evidence room

Source, release, vintage, request/response hash, byte length, calculation and limitation receipts.

LIVE_FOUNDATION

Methodology

Public-data semantics, Compute contracts, refusal policy and authority boundaries.

ROADMAP

Custom watchlist

Requires licensed local market facts and an authorized customer workspace.

Bank / lender

Exists: official macro credit context · aggregate portfolio concentration · deterministic NOI/debt-service stress · evidence room

Roadmap: renewal wall · payment reset · arrears cohorts · insured/uninsured and LTV bands · regional credit concentration

REIT / pension / institutional investor

Exists: public supply/rental/demographic evidence · aggregate portfolio overlay · customer-implied NOI yield · scenario contribution

Roadmap: market cap rates · transactions · effective rents · ownership and capital flows · risk-adjusted relative value

Developer

Exists: permits versus construction stages · primary-rental vacancy · local demographics · aggregate owned pipeline exposure

Roadmap: presales · absorption · cancellations · competitive project pipeline · achieved pricing

Family office

Exists: aggregate exposure · local public context · deterministic scenarios · strict relative-value refusal

Roadmap: transactions/cap rates · resale liquidity · effective rents · ownership · climate/insurance overlay

Government / housing agency

Exists: authorizations and construction stages · primary-rental vacancy · local shelter burden · population/migration context · evidence appendix

Roadmap: current household formation · local costs · licensed project pipeline · tenure-specific effective rents · privacy-safe credit stress

Explicit missing-data ledger

DATA_REQUIRED

Market regime

Decision blocked: Distinguish expansion, deceleration, correction, liquidity freeze and recovery by market.

Required: licensed resale price · sales · listings · inventory · DOM · sale-to-list · registered supply/rental/credit context

REFUSED

Market ranking

Decision blocked: Compare markets on compatible price, liquidity, income, supply, rental and risk evidence.

Required: licensed resale and transaction evidence · compatible geography · registered weighting policy · minimum coverage

DATA_REQUIRED

Affordability pressure

Decision blocked: Measure local ownership and rental burden with concept-compatible local inputs.

Required: current local household income · licensed resale or rent levels · mortgage rates · local taxes · insurance · utilities · tenure

DATA_REQUIRED

Mortgage / credit stress

Decision blocked: Locate renewal, payment-reset and delinquency exposure without borrower inference.

Required: privacy-safe maturity cohorts · rates and payment resets · insured status · LTV bands · arrears/delinquency · regional privacy floors

UNKNOWN

Portfolio concentration

Decision blocked: Measure customer exposure by geography and property type.

Required: customer aggregate holdings

UNKNOWN

Scenario sensitivity

Decision blocked: Show how explicit customer NOI and debt-service shocks affect aggregate coverage.

Required: customer aggregate NOI · customer aggregate debt service · explicit shock values

UNKNOWN

Downside-risk decomposition

Decision blocked: Attribute an explicit deterministic adverse scenario across customer markets.

Required: customer aggregate NOI/debt service · explicit customer shocks · licensed probability/loss evidence for expected risk

DATA_REQUIRED

Cross-border comparison

Decision blocked: Compare Canada and the United States only on matched concepts and vintages.

Required: report-eligible US modules · registered geography/unit/seasonality crosswalk · point-in-time FX where monetary · Track O ruling for native FHFA report use

NORTH AMERICAN COMPARISON · ARCHITECTURE ONLY

No false equivalents across the border.

Canada has live registered public evidence; the United States side remains contract-only. No cross-border rank, spread, currency conversion or purchasing-power comparison is issued.

NO COMPARABLE LIVE PAIR

price

Canada: Statistics Canada NHPI — new homes

United States: FHFA native HPI — capture prohibited before 2026-09-29 and capture-only afterward

Never compare the new-home NHPI with a resale/repeat-sales HPI as if they measured the same market.

CANADA ONLY LIVE

permits

Canada: Statistics Canada residential dwelling units authorized

United States: Census Building Permits Survey contract only

Compare authorizations only after unit, structure, geography, seasonal adjustment and vintage semantics align.

CANADA ONLY LIVE

construction

Canada: CMHC-origin actual starts/completions/under-construction plus separate SAAR

United States: Census/HUD New Residential Construction contract only

Actual counts, inventories and annualized rates remain separate; local Canadian CMAs cannot be mapped to US regions.

CANADA ONLY LIVE

rental

Canada: CMHC primary-rental vacancy and survey universe for eight CMAs

United States: Census Housing Vacancies and Homeownership contract only

Survey universes, sampling error, geography and reference periods must align before comparison.

CANADA ONLY LIVE

mortgage credit

Canada: Statistics Canada national liability and debt-service aggregates

United States: HMDA origination/application contract only

Stocks and debt service are not comparable to applications/originations; neither supplies servicing arrears or renewal schedules.

CANADA ONLY LIVE

income demographics

Canada: Registered Census and annual CMA population/migration evidence

United States: ACS/BLS/BEA/Census contracts only

Compare only matched concepts, geography vintages and reference periods; never scale national inputs across cities.

Visible UNKNOWN and GATED fields

CANADA INSTITUTIONAL INTELLIGENCE V1

Premium report architecture, empty where evidence is missing.

A source contract does not make a number live. Each module below names the missing registered evidence or licence and the decision it would support. No placeholder estimate, national-to-city scaling or illustrative scenario is substituted.

BASELINE LIVE

Executive decision brief

Decision supported: Read the registered NHPI, permit-authorization, construction-stage and primary-rental evidence with their separate scopes and limitations.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Credit, affordability and demographic evidence are not yet registered; the rental slice is limited to vacancy and the primary-rental apartment survey universe in eight CMAs, so no broader institutional conclusion is issued.
EMPTY SOURCE CONTRACTS ONLY

Regime classification

Decision supported: Identify whether local supply, rental, credit and affordability conditions are tightening or easing together.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Registered local supply, rental, mortgage-credit, income, rate and demographic measures with aligned vintages.
PARTIAL LIVE

Supply and development

Decision supported: Compare permitted pipeline, active construction and completed supply by geography and tenure.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Registered absorption, tenure split, project pipeline and construction-duration evidence; the live construction slice does not supply those measures.
MEASURE CONTRACTS · 5
Residential dwelling units authorized by permits — total residential, new dwelling units total, unadjusted current
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
dwelling units
frequency
monthly
seasonality
unadjusted
calculation
live registered evidence only

Authorization only; not a start, completion, under-construction inventory, delivery or absorption measure.

Housing starts — actual dwelling units
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
dwelling units
frequency
monthly
seasonality
actual/unadjusted; SAAR is a separate target and is excluded from this contract
calculation
live registered evidence only

A start is the observed beginning of construction under the CMHC survey definition. It is not a permit, completion or delivered unit.

Housing completions — actual dwelling units
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
dwelling units
frequency
monthly
seasonality
actual/unadjusted
calculation
live registered evidence only

Completion is a construction-stage measure. It does not establish occupancy, sale, rental absorption or availability to a particular tenure.

Dwelling units under construction — inventory
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
dwelling units
frequency
monthly publication
seasonality
inventory; not an annualized flow
calculation
live registered evidence only

Under-construction inventory is a stock of active construction, not monthly starts, completed supply or a forecast delivery schedule.

Housing starts — seasonally adjusted annual rate
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
thousand dwelling units at an annual rate
frequency
monthly
seasonality
seasonally adjusted and annualized; separate from actual monthly starts
calculation
live registered evidence only

SAAR is a rate, not the actual number of starts in the month, and cannot be substituted for completions, units under construction or delivered supply.

SOURCE CONTRACTS · 3
Statistics Canada · Table 34-10-0292-01 — Building permits, by type of structure and type of work
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Registered report evidence covers residential dwelling units authorized by permits only. Model input remains disabled. Permits are not starts, completions or guaranteed supply.

Statistics Canada (CMHC Starts and Completions Survey origin) · Tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01 — actual starts, completions and under-construction inventory
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Registered report evidence is actual/unadjusted and model input remains disabled. Canada completions and under-construction observations are unavailable in this slice and remain empty; permits cannot substitute for construction measures.

Statistics Canada (CMHC origin) · Table 34-10-0156-01 — housing starts, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, monthly
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Separate annualized starts-rate target. It is not actual monthly starts, completions, under-construction inventory, permits or delivered supply; model and forecast eligibility remain false.

PARTIAL LIVE

Rental and multifamily

Decision supported: Compare annual October primary-rental vacancy estimates and the apartment survey universe across eight CMAs without conflating them with asking rents, turnover, new supply or absorption.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Registered Statistics Canada asking-rent observations.
  • Registered CMHC targets for average rent, turnover, unit mix or other measures only after separate review; condominium rental, social/affordable, completions and absorption remain outside the live slice.
MEASURE CONTRACTS · 2
Primary-rental apartment vacancy rate — October estimate
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
percent; 12-month calculation in percentage points
frequency
annual October survey
seasonality
not seasonally adjusted
calculation
live registered evidence only

Privately initiated apartment structures of three units and over; not asking rent, condominium rental, social/affordable housing, turnover, absorption or a causal measure.

Apartments in the primary Rental Market Survey universe
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
apartment units
frequency
annual October survey
seasonality
survey-frame count; not a flow
calculation
live registered evidence only

A survey-universe count is not new rental supply, completions, available listings, occupancy, turnover or absorption.

SOURCE CONTRACTS · 2
Statistics Canada · Table 46-10-0092-01 — Asking rent prices, experimental estimates
CONTRACT READY NOT REGISTERED
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Asking rents measure available listings, not rents paid across the occupied stock.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation · Rental Market Survey data tables
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Only the exact registered vacancy and apartment-universe cells are live, and model input remains disabled. The primary frame covers privately initiated apartment structures with at least three units; asking rent, average rent, turnover, unit mix, condominium rental, social/affordable housing and absorption must not be inferred.

PARTIAL LIVE

Mortgage and household credit

Decision supported: Monitor official national mortgage-liability and debt-service aggregates without converting them into borrower, renewal, delinquency or regional facts.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Observed public renewal schedules and payment resets.
  • Reusable arrears/delinquency, insured/uninsured, fixed/variable, LTV/equity, employment sensitivity and regional concentration evidence.
MEASURE CONTRACTS · 2
Seasonally adjusted mortgage-liability stock and financial flow; household credit-market debt to disposable income
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
millions of dollars or published ratio, by exact series
frequency
quarterly
seasonality
seasonally adjusted estimates
calculation
live registered evidence only

National household-sector aggregates do not identify borrowers, lenders, cities, renewals, payment resets or delinquency.

Mortgage debt-service ratio, mortgage payments, obligated mortgage principal and mortgage interest paid
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
percent or millions of dollars at annual rates, by exact series
frequency
quarterly
seasonality
seasonally adjusted at annual rates
calculation
live registered evidence only

Aggregate national-account measures are not borrower cash flows, renewal simulations, stress tests or arrears observations.

SOURCE CONTRACTS · 4
Statistics Canada · Table 38-10-0238-01 — Household sector credit market summary
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

National balance-sheet aggregates do not support borrower-level, lender-level or regional claims.

Statistics Canada · Table 11-10-0065-01 — Debt service indicators of households, national balance sheet accounts
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Aggregate debt service is not a borrower distribution, renewal reset, delinquency measure or regional statistic.

Bank of Canada · Financial stability indicators
LICENSING REVIEW REQUIRED
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

RESL2 and TransUnion-derived analyses do not create a public loan-level dataset or permission to reconstruct one.

Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions · Public financial data and Loans in Arrears return definitions
LICENSING REVIEW REQUIRED
capture
review required
archive
review required
model
review required
commercial report
permission required
public display
permission required

A reporting instruction is not an observation. Confidential regulatory filings are unavailable and must not be inferred.

PARTIAL LIVE

Affordability and demographics

Decision supported: Compare eight-CMA census-period income, tenure, household size and shelter burden beside current-boundary population and migration evidence without scaling national assumptions.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Current local household income and mortgage contract rates.
  • Geography-compatible local tax, insurance and utility cost levels.
  • A current official household-formation measure; intercensal net household-count change is not formation.
MEASURE CONTRACTS · 4
Private-household counts and median total/after-tax household income
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
households and 2020 constant dollars
frequency
2021 Census product
seasonality
not applicable
calculation
live registered evidence only

Income is not current. The 2016–2021 difference is only an intercensal net household-count change.

Owner/renter private-household counts and average household size
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
households and persons
frequency
2021 Census product
seasonality
not applicable
calculation
live registered evidence only

Tenure shares are deterministic ratios of published counts and do not establish current tenure conditions.

Owner/renter households spending 30% or more of income on shelter
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
households; deterministic share
frequency
2021 Census product
seasonality
not applicable
calculation
live registered evidence only

Census-period burden is not current affordability and does not separately publish local tax, insurance or utility amounts.

July 1 population and annual population-change components
REGISTERED REPORT ONLY LIVE
unit
persons
frequency
annual
seasonality
not applicable
calculation
live registered evidence only

Population and migration are not household formation, housing demand, absorption or causal effects.

SOURCE CONTRACTS · 5
Statistics Canada · Table 98-10-0058-01 — Household income statistics by household type
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

2020/2015 income in 2020 constant dollars; never current income.

Statistics Canada · Table 98-10-0239-01 — Structural type of dwelling by tenure
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Census-period tenure and household size are not current conditions.

Statistics Canada · Table 98-10-0252-01 — Shelter-cost-to-income ratio by tenure
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Census-period affordability cannot be presented as current monthly affordability.

Statistics Canada · Tables 17-10-0148-01 and 17-10-0149-01 — population and components of population change
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Population change is not household formation or a housing-demand causal measure.

Statistics Canada · Table 17-10-0149-01 — Components of population change by CMA/CA
REPORT ONLY LIVE
capture
allowed with attribution
archive
allowed with attribution
model
allowed with attribution
commercial report
allowed with attribution
public display
allowed with attribution

Population change is not household formation; a separate household measure is required before making household-demand claims.

BASELINE LIVE

Portfolio exposure overlay

Decision supported: Join non-sensitive customer-supplied aggregate holdings to the registered geography and property-type decision context without uploading or persisting the file.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Asset-level exposure, addresses, borrower or tenant records are prohibited; climate, insurance and market-value overlays remain licence-gated.
EMPTY SOURCE CONTRACTS ONLY

Relative value

Decision supported: Calculate a clearly labelled customer-implied NOI yield when complete aggregate customer inputs exist; refuse all market ranking or spread claims without licensed evidence.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Licensed cap-rate methodology and observations, transaction history, and relevant resale or lease comparables.
PARTIAL LIVE

Stakeholder implications

Decision supported: Route registered evidence and explicit missing fields into bank/lender, government, REIT/investor and developer modes without causal inference.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Licensed transaction, cap-rate, lease, mortgage-servicing, development/presale, climate and insurance evidence for the blocked premium features.
BASELINE LIVE

Evidence appendix

Decision supported: Inspect every observation and receipt used by current NHPI, permits, actual construction, SAAR, primary rental, mortgage-credit, census affordability and demographic modules.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Future modules append only after their source-use eligibility and evidence objects are registered.
GOVERNANCE GATED

Forecast scorecard

Decision supported: Evaluate only future institutionally eligible forecasts after governance authorization and maturity.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • GATE-1 closure, authorized forecast semantics, eligible inputs, issued vintages and realized outcomes.
BASELINE LIVE

Scenario laboratory

Decision supported: Run deterministic customer-supplied aggregate NOI and debt-service stresses through the registered Compute Plane without presenting them as forecasts, facts or probabilities.

MISSING BEFORE LIVE CALCULATION
  • Market-calibrated shocks and probabilities remain unavailable; licensed observations and separate registered semantics would be required before any calibrated scenario could be offered.

Use boundaries

Source: Statistics Canada, table 18-10-0205-01.

TERMINAL / REGISTERED EVIDENCE JSON
{
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    "refusals": [],
    "gated": [
      "Mortgage-renewal exposure and payment resets: GATED — official public studies are calibrated analyses, not observed borrower schedules.",
      "Arrears/delinquency, insured/uninsured and fixed/variable composition, LTV/equity, regional credit concentration and employment sensitivity: UNKNOWN/GATED pending an exact reusable aggregate or licensed privacy-safe source.",
      "Current local mortgage rates, taxes, insurance premiums and utility bills: UNKNOWN — no national-to-city scaling is permitted.",
      "Household formation: UNKNOWN — the only admitted calculation is the 2016–2021 intercensal net change in disseminated household counts."
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    "limitations": [
      "SAAR is an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate and is displayed separately from actual monthly starts, completions and under-construction inventory.",
      "National mortgage and debt-service measures do not describe an individual borrower, lender, city, renewal cohort, delinquency event or payment reset.",
      "Census income refers to 2020 or 2015; tenure, household size and shelter burden refer to the 2021 Census and are not current affordability.",
      "Population estimates and population-change components use 2021 CMA boundaries and remain distinct from household formation and housing demand.",
      "All calculations are deterministic transformations of registered report-eligible evidence; no scenario is represented as an observed fact."
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    "modelInputAuthorized": false,
    "sourceSupersessionAuthorized": false,
    "aionAuthorized": false,
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      "exactFields": [
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        "list and sale price",
        "status and DOM/CDOM",
        "property type and tenure",
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        "geography",
        "relist/cancellation/termination",
        "revision flags"
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      "history": "Event and transaction history including corrected, withdrawn and expired records.",
      "frequency": "Daily preferred; monthly aggregates do not support liquidity cohorts.",
      "geography": "Property or dissemination-area precision with licensed board/CMA crosswalks.",
      "rightsRequired": [
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        "DOM",
        "cancellations",
        "local transaction mix",
        "resale regime"
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      "id": "teranet-national-bank",
      "provider": "Teranet–National Bank",
      "requiredDelivery": "Licensed API/export and dated release artifacts with methodology identity.",
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        "artifact identity"
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      "history": "Full index history and release-vintage history; current revised history alone is insufficient.",
      "frequency": "Monthly.",
      "geography": "National, provincial and metropolitan with exact boundaries.",
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        "asking and achieved rent",
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        "availability",
        "lease term",
        "geography",
        "withdrawal and quality flags"
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      "history": "Event-level listings and executed leases with corrections, not current inventory only.",
      "frequency": "Daily or weekly.",
      "geography": "Address/postal precision internally with licensed public aggregation floors.",
      "rightsRequired": [
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      "unlocks": [
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        "lease velocity",
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        "granular rental absorption"
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      "status": "LICENCE_REQUIRED_NO_CAPTURE"
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      "id": "commercial-transactions",
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      "history": "Complete transaction history and restatements, including inferred-value methodology.",
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      "geography": "Property-level internally with licensed public aggregation rules.",
      "rightsRequired": [
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        "commercial-property implications"
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      "provider": "Mortgage, servicing and credit providers",
      "requiredDelivery": "Secure clean room, API or encrypted export under privacy and re-identification controls.",
      "exactFields": [
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        "balance",
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        "property geography/type/value",
        "insured status",
        "LTV/GDS/TDS",
        "arrears days",
        "modification/prepayment/default",
        "lawful income/employment fields"
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      "history": "Monthly performance from origination through closure with definition changes and restatements.",
      "frequency": "Monthly minimum.",
      "geography": "Regional concentration only above contractual privacy floors.",
      "rightsRequired": [
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        "privacy-safe aggregation",
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        "regional credit concentration"
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      "id": "development-presale",
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        "sales launch",
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        "asking/achieved price",
        "construction stage",
        "expected completion",
        "revision reason"
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      "history": "Dated project/unit event history and snapshots; marketing pages are insufficient.",
      "frequency": "Weekly/monthly plus events.",
      "geography": "Project/property internally with licensed public aggregation.",
      "rightsRequired": [
        "capture",
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        "commercial reports",
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        "customer use"
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        "presale absorption",
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        "inventory overhang",
        "delivery risk",
        "future local pipeline"
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      "status": "LICENCE_REQUIRED_NO_CAPTURE"
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      "requiredDelivery": "Versioned geospatial API, tiles or bulk files with methodology and checksums.",
      "exactFields": [
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        "event/loss history",
        "vulnerability",
        "policy availability",
        "premium/deductible/coverage",
        "claims/non-renewal",
        "model version"
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      "history": "Hazard-model vintages, events, claim revisions and boundary changes.",
      "frequency": "Annual models plus event and policy updates.",
      "geography": "Parcel/small area internally; privacy/licence-compliant aggregation publicly.",
      "rightsRequired": [
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        "model/AI",
        "commercial reports",
        "derived risk classes",
        "public tiles/display",
        "post-termination reproducibility"
      ],
      "unlocks": [
        "portfolio climate exposure",
        "insurance affordability/availability",
        "hazard-adjusted valuation",
        "physical-risk scenarios"
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      "status": "LICENCE_REQUIRED_NO_CAPTURE"
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  ],
  "northAmerica": {
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      "status": "ARCHITECTURE_ONLY_NO_LIVE_CROSS_BORDER_COMPARISONS",
      "currencyConversion": "UNKNOWN_NO_REGISTERED_POINT_IN_TIME_FX",
      "purchasingPowerAdjustment": "UNKNOWN_NO_REGISTERED_METHOD",
      "geographyCrosswalk": "GATED_REQUIRES_REGISTERED_BOUNDARIES",
      "forecastAuthorized": false
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    "measures": [
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        "canada": "Statistics Canada NHPI — new homes",
        "unitedStates": "FHFA native HPI — capture prohibited before 2026-09-29 and capture-only afterward",
        "status": "NO_COMPARABLE_LIVE_PAIR",
        "comparisonRule": "Never compare the new-home NHPI with a resale/repeat-sales HPI as if they measured the same market."
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      {
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        "canada": "Statistics Canada residential dwelling units authorized",
        "unitedStates": "Census Building Permits Survey contract only",
        "status": "CANADA_ONLY_LIVE",
        "comparisonRule": "Compare authorizations only after unit, structure, geography, seasonal adjustment and vintage semantics align."
      },
      {
        "domain": "construction",
        "canada": "CMHC-origin actual starts/completions/under-construction plus separate SAAR",
        "unitedStates": "Census/HUD New Residential Construction contract only",
        "status": "CANADA_ONLY_LIVE",
        "comparisonRule": "Actual counts, inventories and annualized rates remain separate; local Canadian CMAs cannot be mapped to US regions."
      },
      {
        "domain": "rental",
        "canada": "CMHC primary-rental vacancy and survey universe for eight CMAs",
        "unitedStates": "Census Housing Vacancies and Homeownership contract only",
        "status": "CANADA_ONLY_LIVE",
        "comparisonRule": "Survey universes, sampling error, geography and reference periods must align before comparison."
      },
      {
        "domain": "mortgage_credit",
        "canada": "Statistics Canada national liability and debt-service aggregates",
        "unitedStates": "HMDA origination/application contract only",
        "status": "CANADA_ONLY_LIVE",
        "comparisonRule": "Stocks and debt service are not comparable to applications/originations; neither supplies servicing arrears or renewal schedules."
      },
      {
        "domain": "income_demographics",
        "canada": "Registered Census and annual CMA population/migration evidence",
        "unitedStates": "ACS/BLS/BEA/Census contracts only",
        "status": "CANADA_ONLY_LIVE",
        "comparisonRule": "Compare only matched concepts, geography vintages and reference periods; never scale national inputs across cities."
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}