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 SAMPLE Design fixtures. Figures are a fixed sample series, not graded model output. 

 SCORECARD / HOUSING · CANADA / VINTAGE

hca-2025-06-01/calgary

New Housing Price Index, Calgary CMA · 12-month horizon · issued and locked 2025-06-01, resolved 2026-06-01.

GRADED · MISS

{
  "id": "hca-2025-06-01/calgary",
  "sample": true,
  "arena": "housing-ca",
  "series": {
    "source": "Statistics Canada",
    "id": "18-10-0205-01",
    "market": "Calgary CMA"
  },
  "issued_at": "2025-06-01T09:00:00Z",
  "locked_at": "2025-06-01T09:00:04Z",
  "lock_sha256": "9f2c4b81d0a37e5c6b19f4ae2d80c7731e5a9042bb6f38d1c40e7719a2b341ab",
  "horizon_months": 12,
  "forecast_pct": 5.1,
  "interval_80": [
    1.9,
    8.3
  ],
  "realized_pct": 1.62,
  "realized_at": "2026-06-18T12:30:00Z",
  "error_pp": -3.48,
  "inside_interval": false,
  "grade": "miss",
  "provisional_until": "2026-09-16"
}

FORECAST +5.10% locked 2025-06-01

REALIZED +1.62% released 2026-06-18

ERROR −3.48pp below 80% interval

80% INTERVAL +1.9 … +8.3 declared at issuance

WHY WE MISSED

The model carried Calgary's 2023–24 in-migration surge forward at roughly two thirds of its observed rate. Completions arrived faster than the migration flow persisted, and the realized index landed 3.48 points below the forecast — outside the 80% interval on the low side. The regime break is now a named limitation on the arena page. The forecast has not been amended, re-run, or removed.

01 / LIFE OF THE FORECAST

ISSUED 2025-06-01T09:00:00Z

Model hca-core v4.2 wrote a 12-month point forecast with an 80% interval, a named resolution series, and a data cutoff of 2025-05-29. Nothing was public yet.

forecast.json

LOCKED 2025-06-01T09:00:04Z

The manifest was hashed and timestamped. From this second the content is immutable; any later edit produces a different digest and fails verification.

lock.sig

PUBLISHED 2025-06-01T09:00:05Z

The locked vintage appeared on the arena page and in the API in the same second, with its limitations attached rather than linked.

vintage page + /v1

REALIZED 2026-06-18T12:30:00Z

Statistics Canada released the June 2026 NHPI. We recorded the first-release value, the 90-day revision window, and the exact series vintage used for grading.

observation.json

GRADED 2026-06-18T12:31:11Z

Realized minus forecast, compared against the declared interval. The result was a miss and was published to the scorecard on the same run.

grade.json

THE LOCK 2025-06-01T09:00:04Z

SHA-256 OF forecast.json

9f2c4b81d0a37e5c
6b19f4ae2d80c773
1e5a9042bb6f38d1
c40e7719a2b341ab

This hash was published 366 days before the outcome existed. Re-hash the manifest and compare: if the digests match, the number you are reading is the number we committed to.

anchor · #vintage-hca-2025-06-01-calgary
witness · opentimestamps, block 894,102

02 / FORECAST vs REALIZED

Index rebased to 100 at lock. The band is the 80% interval declared at issuance — it was never widened after the fact.

 FORECAST PATH REALIZED NHPI RESOLUTION POINT FORECAST POINT 

03 / GRADE ARITHMETIC

The grade is subtraction on two files that already existed. No judgement enters here.

realized_pct (observation.json) +1.62

forecast_pct (forecast.json) +5.10

error = realized − forecast −3.48pp

interval_low / interval_high +1.90 / +8.30

inside_interval false

RESULT MISS

04 / PROVENANCE

PRIMARY SOURCE Statistics Canada

SERIES ID 18-10-0205-01 · NHPI · Calgary CMA

DATA CUTOFF 2025-05-29

GRADING VINTAGE T+12 first release

REVISION WINDOW 90 days · grade provisional until 2026-09-16

METHODOLOGY hca-core v4.2 · unchanged since 2025-02

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The One Lab · Toronto · Every number on this site resolves to a primary source or a graded model output. Where it can't, we say so. VINTAGE hca-2025-06-01/calgary · SAMPLE