{ "schema": "housing.institutional-publication.v1", "product": "ONE LAB INSTITUTIONAL HOUSING INTELLIGENCE", "edition": "CANADA_PUBLIC_DATA", "publication_version": "2026-09-14-correction-1", "correction_of": { "pdf_sha256": "98c678856c8f2ab649c798b5c357f23fcf4c6d0f8f983761b764675f6ca57b28", "model_sha256": "41375edc5ae1423f047b9a3c65d2ff0f33b4b509550fa2f40c0a10aa917b0b7c", "reason": "Corrects conventional median calculations, unsupported neutral-state promotion, evidence taxonomy, derivation verification, and substantive report coverage; predecessor remains immutable." }, "generated_at": "2026-09-20T12:38:12.557Z", "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-01", "publication_state": "CANDIDATE_REQUIRES_PRODUCTION_RECEIPT", "authority": { "evidence_report": true, "scenario_forecast": false, "investment_advice": false, "premium_data": false }, "cadence": { "live_terminal": "SOURCE_DRIVEN", "monthly_intelligence_brief": "PUBLIC_DATA_DRIVEN", "quarterly_flagship": "PUBLIC_DATA_DRIVEN", "scenario_lab": "LIVE_CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST", "evidence_room": "LIVE" }, "unavailable_premium_functions": { "TRANSACTIONS": "DATA_REQUIRED", "CAP_RATES": "DATA_REQUIRED", "PROPRIETARY_EFFECTIVE_RENTS": "DATA_REQUIRED", "RESTRICTED_RESALE": "DATA_REQUIRED" }, "sections": [ { "number": 1, "title": "EXECUTIVE DECISION BRIEF", "summary": "Decision-facing findings with explicit evidence, contradiction, confidence and change conditions.", "analysis": [ "The admitted national signals cover new-home prices, authorizations, actual starts and aggregate mortgage burden; none supplies resale liquidity, delivered supply or borrower-level stress.", "Eight-CMA rental and demographic comparisons are useful for monitoring dispersion, but their reference periods and universes differ and are never collapsed into a single score." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 2, "title": "CANADA HOUSING REGIME", "summary": "Eleven transparent dimensions replace a single opaque score.", "analysis": [ "Each assessed state follows a declared threshold. Descriptive observations that cannot support an assessment remain DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY with state INSUFFICIENT_DATA.", "A neutral state means an observed value fell inside a declared assessed band; it never means that some related data happened to exist." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [ "F-NHPI" ], "status": "EVIDENCED" }, { "number": 3, "title": "NATIONAL SUPPLY PIPELINE", "summary": "Permits, starts, under-construction stock and completions are preserved as separate stages.", "analysis": [ "Permits are authorizations and starts are observed construction initiations in a separately defined universe. Their same-period levels are not a tracked cohort conversion rate.", "Under-construction inventory is a stock and completions are a flow. Their ratio, where shown, is descriptive and is not an observed completion lag." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [ "F-SUPPLY" ], "status": "EVIDENCED" }, { "number": 4, "title": "AFFORDABILITY", "summary": "Registered census income and shelter burden are shown with their historical reference periods; no synthetic current affordability score is issued.", "analysis": [ "The local income evidence refers to 2020 and Census shelter-cost burden and tenure refer to 2021. These measures support historical cross-market context, not a current affordability assessment.", "Current mortgage rates, taxes, insurance and utilities are absent, so a present-day carrying-cost or qualification result is not issued." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 5, "title": "RENTAL MARKET", "summary": "CMHC primary-rental vacancy and survey-universe evidence is bounded to eight CMAs and the October survey.", "analysis": [ "The conventional median of the 8 registered October vacancy estimates is 2.95%; the full cross-market distribution remains visible rather than being treated as a national rent measure.", "The CMHC primary-rental universe excludes asking rent, achieved rent, condominium rentals and direct absorption evidence in this publication." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [ "F-RENTAL" ], "status": "EVIDENCED" }, { "number": 6, "title": "MORTGAGE / HOUSEHOLD STRESS", "summary": "Official national aggregates are separated from unavailable borrower, cohort and lender evidence.", "analysis": [ "The national mortgage debt-service ratio is DATA_AVAILABLE but DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY. Without borrower cohorts, renewals, arrears or regional lender exposure, stress state remains INSUFFICIENT_DATA.", "The aggregate can inform monitoring of direction and vintage; it cannot identify which households or lenders bear the change." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [ "F-MORTGAGE" ], "status": "EVIDENCED" }, { "number": 7, "title": "DEMOGRAPHICS / HOUSEHOLD FORMATION", "summary": "Population and migration context is live; household formation remains refused without direct evidence.", "analysis": [ "The conventional median annual population change across the eight registered CMAs is 1.123159557%. Population change is context, not an observed household-formation rate.", "Immigration and interprovincial/non-permanent-resident components are reported separately because their housing transmission is neither immediate nor one-for-one." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 8, "title": "PUBLIC INVESTOR / OWNERSHIP INTELLIGENCE", "summary": "Ownership and investor concentration are published only where admitted evidence supports them; current state is insufficient.", "analysis": [ "No investor-concentration estimate is issued. Public tenure counts describe owner and renter households, not investor ownership of units.", "Transactions, beneficial ownership, cap rates and portfolio holdings remain DATA_REQUIRED; absence of those data is a coverage limitation, not counter-evidence." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [ "F-OWNERSHIP" ], "status": "REFUSED_INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "number": 9, "title": "MAJOR CMA / CITY INTELLIGENCE", "summary": "Consistent pages are issued for evidence-dense CMAs; sparse dimensions remain visibly insufficient.", "analysis": [ "Each market card reports its own registered measures, periods and limitations. Cross-market differences are descriptive and are not ranked as investment opportunities.", "Sparse dimensions remain explicit: no city inherits a national mortgage assessment or an unavailable resale, ownership or absorption measure." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 10, "title": "SCENARIO LAB", "summary": "Five conditional scenarios expose implications and falsifiers; none is a forecast.", "analysis": [ "No publication scenario has admissible user-supplied shock inputs, so all five are qualitative conditional narratives; no computed result or probability is implied.", "The conditions identify monitoring paths and disconfirming evidence. They do not alter the evidence model or create a forecast." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 11, "title": "DOWNSIDE / VULNERABILITY RESEARCH", "summary": "Vulnerabilities are conditional and evidence-bounded, with missing transmission channels disclosed.", "analysis": [ "Observed descriptive thresholds are not empirically validated vulnerability classifications. Transmission through borrowers, projects or balance sheets requires evidence that is not admitted here.", "Potential downside channels are therefore conditions to monitor, not measured loss estimates or stress-test outcomes." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 12, "title": "BANK/LENDER DECISION PAGE", "summary": "National mortgage context and public collateral-market signals; no borrower or loan-level advice.", "analysis": [ "Monitor the national debt-service level and change alongside new-home price and rental-vacancy vintages, but do not map them to portfolio loss without renewal, arrears, LTV and regional exposure data.", "Escalate when a later official aggregate changes materially or when privacy-safe cohort evidence becomes admissible; no borrower decision is supported by this report alone." ], "monitoring_implications": [ "Named owner: credit-risk human reviewer", "Next event: eligible official debt-service vintage" ], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 13, "title": "DEVELOPER DECISION PAGE", "summary": "Supply-stage evidence and conversion questions; no project pipeline, presale or absorption inference.", "analysis": [ "Compare permits, starts, under-construction stock and completions only within matching geography-period definitions. Treat gaps as questions about delivery, not measured cancellation or conversion.", "Monitor the next permit/start/completion vintages with local vacancy and population context; presales, absorption, costs and project schedules remain unavailable." ], "monitoring_implications": [ "Named owner: development pipeline reviewer", "Next event: matched permit/construction release" ], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 14, "title": "REIT/PENSION DECISION PAGE", "summary": "Rental, construction and demographic context; no cap-rate, transaction or effective-rent claim.", "analysis": [ "Use primary-rental vacancy and universe size to monitor covered-market dispersion, while recognizing that effective rents, concessions, turnover, cap rates and transactions are unavailable.", "Any allocation or valuation conclusion requires portfolio facts and licensed market evidence outside this publication's authority." ], "monitoring_implications": [ "Named owner: real-estate investment reviewer", "Next event: CMHC Rental Market Survey vintage" ], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 15, "title": "GOVERNMENT DECISION PAGE", "summary": "Authorization, construction, rental and shelter-burden evidence with vintage-aware limitations.", "analysis": [ "Monitor authorization, starts and completions as distinct policy-chain stages and pair them with the dated rental and demographic context for each CMA.", "Do not infer program conversion from contemporaneous stage ratios; administrative cohorts and delivery milestones would be needed for that evaluation." ], "monitoring_implications": [ "Named owner: housing-policy reviewer", "Next event: official permit, construction or rental release" ], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 16, "title": "FAMILY-OFFICE DECISION PAGE", "summary": "Public market context and explicit gated fields; not investment advice or valuation.", "analysis": [ "The publication supports public-market monitoring and evidence diligence, not valuation, transaction underwriting or a buy/sell recommendation.", "Before a capital decision, require transaction comps, cap rates, effective rents, ownership, financing and asset-specific condition evidence." ], "monitoring_implications": [ "Named owner: investment-committee human reviewer", "Next event: admitted public or licensed evidence; no automatic recommendation" ], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 17, "title": "ONE LAB OUTLOOK", "summary": "A conditional watchlist, not a governed forecast.", "analysis": [ "The forward watchlist is the next official vintages of NHPI, permits, construction, rental and debt-service data. It is not a prediction of prices, rents or returns.", "A changed conclusion requires a later admissible observation or newly admitted evidence, not an unrecorded narrative update." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 18, "title": "METHODOLOGY", "summary": "Deterministic registered-evidence compilation, documented thresholds and fail-closed calculations.", "analysis": [ "Registered observations are filtered for finite numeric values, sorted numerically, aggregated with the conventional median, rounded only for display, and bound to source/vintage receipts.", "An independent verifier recomputes derived values from evidence bindings and rejects unsupported state promotion, non-comparable pipeline arithmetic and narrative/model disagreement." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" }, { "number": 19, "title": "FULL EVIDENCE APPENDIX", "summary": "Every numeric finding binds source, vintage, calculation, unit, geography, period and code version.", "analysis": [ "Binding identifiers carry reconstructable table or survey references, exact periods, vintages, units, transformations and captured-response hashes where available.", "The appendix proves provenance and derivation inputs; it does not convert missing market coverage into assessed evidence." ], "monitoring_implications": [], "finding_ids": [], "status": "BOUNDED" } ], "findings": [ { "finding_id": "F-NHPI", "section": "CANADA HOUSING REGIME", "headline": "New-home prices are measured separately from resale markets.", "what_happened": "Canada NHPI was 120.5 at 2026-07; its 12-month change was -2.27%.", "why_it_matters": "It is the admitted national price direction signal, but it cannot answer resale liquidity or transaction questions.", "what_is_changing": "The registered 12-month direction is falling.", "evidence": [ "nhpi:CANADA:level", "nhpi:CANADA:12m" ], "counter_evidence": [], "coverage_limitations": [ "No resale price, sales-volume, listings, inventory or sale-to-list evidence is admitted." ], "alternative_explanations": [ "Resale and new-home segments can diverge; this publication does not test that explanation." ], "confidence": "HIGH_REGISTERED", "what_would_change_our_view": "A later official NHPI vintage or admitted resale evidence would change this view.", "who_should_care": [ "developers", "lenders", "governments" ], "what_to_watch_next": [ "next Statistics Canada NHPI release", "publisher revisions" ] }, { "finding_id": "F-SUPPLY", "section": "NATIONAL SUPPLY PIPELINE", "headline": "Authorizations and construction stages remain distinct.", "what_happened": "Registered national permits were 28,905 and actual starts in centres of 50,000+ were 17,424; their periods and definitions remain separately disclosed.", "why_it_matters": "Permits do not become delivered supply without observed starts, construction and completions.", "what_is_changing": "Momentum is reported independently for permits and starts; no stage is substituted for another.", "evidence": [ "permits:PERMITS_CANADA:level", "permits:PERMITS_CANADA:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:12m" ], "counter_evidence": [], "coverage_limitations": [ "National completions and under-construction inventory are absent from this registered slice." ], "alternative_explanations": [ "Differences between permits and starts can reflect timing, cancellations, revisions or unlike universes; no cohort conversion is inferred." ], "confidence": "BOUNDED_REGISTERED", "what_would_change_our_view": "Comparable-period national completions and pipeline inventory would permit a fuller conversion analysis.", "who_should_care": [ "developers", "governments", "REITs and pensions" ], "what_to_watch_next": [ "permits", "starts", "under construction", "completions" ] }, { "finding_id": "F-RENTAL", "section": "RENTAL MARKET", "headline": "Primary-rental vacancy is live for eight CMAs; asking rent is not.", "what_happened": "The median registered October vacancy estimate across 8 CMAs was 3.0%.", "why_it_matters": "Vacancy supplies a bounded pressure signal while rent levels, turnover and absorption remain unknown.", "what_is_changing": "The transparent threshold classifies this cross-market median as neutral.", "evidence": [ "rental:TORONTO:vacancy", "rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy", "rental:MONTREAL:vacancy", "rental:CALGARY:vacancy", "rental:EDMONTON:vacancy", "rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy", "rental:HALIFAX:vacancy", "rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy" ], "counter_evidence": [], "coverage_limitations": [ "The survey does not provide asking rent, achieved rent, condominium rental or absorption in this product." ], "alternative_explanations": [ "Vacancy differences can reflect local supply, tenure mix and survey-universe composition; the admitted data do not isolate causes." ], "confidence": "BOUNDED_REGISTERED", "what_would_change_our_view": "A new CMHC survey vintage or admitted asking/achieved-rent evidence would change the assessment.", "who_should_care": [ "REITs and pensions", "developers", "governments" ], "what_to_watch_next": [ "next CMHC Rental Market Survey", "survey-universe revisions" ] }, { "finding_id": "F-MORTGAGE", "section": "MORTGAGE / HOUSEHOLD STRESS", "headline": "National mortgage burden is context, not borrower stress telemetry.", "what_happened": "The registered national mortgage debt-service ratio was 7.84% at 2026-01.", "why_it_matters": "It frames aggregate debt burden but cannot identify renewal, delinquency, lender or household exposure.", "what_is_changing": "The registered annual change was -0.04 percentage points.", "evidence": [ "institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA", "institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA:change" ], "counter_evidence": [], "coverage_limitations": [ "No borrower cohorts, payment resets, arrears, insured/uninsured split, LTV or regional concentration." ], "alternative_explanations": [ "Aggregate debt-service changes can reflect rates, income, principal repayment and composition; borrower stress is not identified." ], "confidence": "BOUNDED_REGISTERED", "what_would_change_our_view": "Admissible privacy-safe cohort evidence or a later official aggregate vintage would change this view.", "who_should_care": [ "banks and lenders", "governments", "family offices" ], "what_to_watch_next": [ "debt-service releases", "Bank of Canada public stress research" ] }, { "finding_id": "F-OWNERSHIP", "section": "PUBLIC INVESTOR / OWNERSHIP INTELLIGENCE", "headline": "Investor concentration is refused where public evidence is insufficient.", "what_happened": "No ownership or investor-concentration number is issued.", "why_it_matters": "Tenure counts and customer portfolio inputs cannot stand in for market ownership concentration.", "what_is_changing": "State remains INSUFFICIENT_DATA.", "evidence": [], "counter_evidence": [], "coverage_limitations": [ "No admitted current ownership/investor dataset supports a consistent geography-period comparison." ], "alternative_explanations": [ "Tenure and investor ownership are different concepts; neither is used as a proxy for the other." ], "confidence": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "what_would_change_our_view": "An admitted official ownership series with exact geography, period, unit and rights would change this refusal.", "who_should_care": [ "governments", "REITs and pensions", "family offices" ], "what_to_watch_next": [ "Canadian Housing Statistics Program releases and admissibility review" ] } ], "regime_dimensions": [ { "dimension": "demand pressure", "state": "RISING", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "ASSESSED_STATE", "value": 1.1231595572536834, "unit": "median annual population change across evidenced CMAs, percent", "threshold": "RISING above +0.5%; FALLING below -0.5%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m" ], "limitation": "Population change is contextual pressure, not housing demand or household formation." }, { "dimension": "new-home price direction", "state": "FALLING", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "ASSESSED_STATE", "value": -2.270884022708841, "unit": "12-month percent change", "threshold": "RISING above +0.25%; FALLING below -0.25%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:CANADA:12m" ], "limitation": "NHPI covers new homes, not resale transactions." }, { "dimension": "supply authorization", "state": "RISING", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "ASSESSED_STATE", "value": 5.766767902228409, "unit": "12-month percent change in permitted dwelling units", "threshold": "RISING above +2%; FALLING below -2%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_CANADA:12m" ], "limitation": "Permits are authorizations, not starts, completions, occupancy or absorption." }, { "dimension": "starts momentum", "state": "FALLING", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "ASSESSED_STATE", "value": -19.84174449096011, "unit": "12-month percent change in actual starts", "threshold": "RISING above +2%; FALLING below -2%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:12m" ], "limitation": "The national starts series covers centres of 50,000+ and is not SAAR." }, { "dimension": "under-construction pipeline", "state": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY", "value": null, "unit": "separate inventory stock", "threshold": "No aggregate state without comparable starts, completions and pipeline periods", "evidence_binding_ids": [], "limitation": "Inventory is not a delivery schedule; market-level rows remain in the pipeline table." }, { "dimension": "completion momentum", "state": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "data_status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "assessment_status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "value": null, "unit": "12-month percent change", "threshold": "RISING above +2%; FALLING below -2%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [], "limitation": "No registered national completion series exists in this slice." }, { "dimension": "rental pressure", "state": "NEUTRAL", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "ASSESSED_STATE", "value": 2.95, "unit": "median primary-rental vacancy estimate across eight CMAs, percent", "threshold": "TIGHT at or below 2%; EASING above 3.5%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "rental:TORONTO:vacancy", "rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy", "rental:MONTREAL:vacancy", "rental:CALGARY:vacancy", "rental:EDMONTON:vacancy", "rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy", "rental:HALIFAX:vacancy", "rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy" ], "limitation": "Annual October survey; excludes asking rent, condominiums and absorption." }, { "dimension": "affordability stress", "state": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY", "value": null, "unit": "Census shelter-cost burden context", "threshold": "No current state from 2020 income and 2021 Census burden alone", "evidence_binding_ids": [], "limitation": "The admitted local evidence is not current enough for a current affordability regime." }, { "dimension": "mortgage/credit stress", "state": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY", "value": 7.84, "unit": "percent", "threshold": "Descriptive national aggregate only; no stress classification without cohort evidence", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "institutional:STATCAN_DEBT_SERVICE_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_CANADA" ], "limitation": "No borrower, renewal, arrears, lender, city, LTV or fixed/variable detail." }, { "dimension": "demographic pressure", "state": "RISING", "data_status": "DATA_AVAILABLE", "assessment_status": "ASSESSED_STATE", "value": 1.1231595572536834, "unit": "median annual population change across evidenced CMAs, percent", "threshold": "RISING above +0.5%; FALLING below -0.5%; otherwise NEUTRAL", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m" ], "limitation": "Population and migration components are not household formation." }, { "dimension": "ownership/investor concentration", "state": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "data_status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "assessment_status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA", "value": null, "unit": "not issued", "threshold": "REFUSE until admissible ownership/investor evidence supports the geography and period", "evidence_binding_ids": [], "limitation": "No concentration estimate is inferred from tenure or customer portfolio data." } ], "supply_pipeline": [ { "geography": "Calgary", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 3416, "starts": 1504, "under_construction": 24547, "completions": 1879, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Canada", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 28905, "starts": 17424, "under_construction": null, "completions": null, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_CANADA:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CANADA:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Edmonton", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 1804, "starts": 2174, "under_construction": 18289, "completions": 1729, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Halifax", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 344, "starts": 452, "under_construction": 14751, "completions": 116, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Montréal", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 3454, "starts": 2458, "under_construction": 34809, "completions": 3403, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Québec City", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 1009, "starts": 1031, "under_construction": 10455, "completions": 1746, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Toronto", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 3446, "starts": 1540, "under_construction": 92749, "completions": 1009, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Vancouver", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 1313, "starts": 1810, "under_construction": 59595, "completions": 2123, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" }, { "geography": "Winnipeg", "period": "NON_COMPARABLE_OR_MISSING", "permits": 741, "starts": 545, "under_construction": 9105, "completions": 381, "permit_to_start_ratio": null, "pipeline_to_completion_ratio": null, "completion_gap": null, "evidence_binding_ids": [ "permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:level" ], "status": "INSUFFICIENT_DATA" } ], "scenarios": [ { "id": "BASE", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST", "condition": "Registered public indicators continue near their current directions and no gated premium fact is assumed.", "implications": [ "Track each regime dimension independently.", "Preserve current evidence limitations." ], "disconfirming_signals": [ "A material reversal in permits, starts, vacancy or mortgage debt-service context." ], "decision_watch": [ "Next official releases and revisions." ] }, { "id": "RATE_STRESS", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST", "condition": "Debt-service burden rises while household income and rental absorption evidence do not improve.", "implications": [ "Refinancing sensitivity may increase.", "Lenders should require cohort evidence before exposure conclusions." ], "disconfirming_signals": [ "Falling debt-service burden or new admissible renewal-cohort evidence." ], "decision_watch": [ "Mortgage debt-service aggregates", "Bank of Canada financial-condition research" ] }, { "id": "DEMAND_WEAKNESS", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST", "condition": "Population momentum and rental pressure soften while completions remain firm.", "implications": [ "Absorption risk would require direct evidence before a market conclusion." ], "disconfirming_signals": [ "Re-acceleration in population context or tightening vacancy." ], "decision_watch": [ "Population revisions", "CMHC vacancy", "completed units" ] }, { "id": "SUPPLY_ACCELERATION", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST", "condition": "Separately observed permit, start and completion measures rise across later comparable official periods.", "implications": [ "Pipeline delivery risk may ease, subject to absorption and tenure evidence." ], "disconfirming_signals": [ "Later permits, starts or completions weaken; cancellations are not observed here." ], "decision_watch": [ "separately dated permit levels", "separately dated starts and completions" ] }, { "id": "SUPPLY_SHORTFALL", "status": "CONDITIONAL_NOT_FORECAST", "condition": "Authorizations and starts weaken while demographic and rental pressure remain elevated.", "implications": [ "Supply vulnerability may intensify, but no price or rent forecast is issued." ], "disconfirming_signals": [ "Sustained completions acceleration or easing demand pressure." ], "decision_watch": [ "Permits", "starts", "under-construction stock", "completions" ] } ], "major_markets": [ { "geography": "Toronto", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:TORONTO:level", "nhpi:TORONTO:1m", "nhpi:TORONTO:12m", "permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:level", "permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:1m", "permits:PERMITS_TORONTO:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_TORONTO:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_TORONTO:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_TORONTO:12m", "rental:TORONTO:vacancy", "rental:TORONTO:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_TORONTO", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_TORONTO", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_TORONTO", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_TORONTO", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_TORONTO", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_TORONTO", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_TORONTO", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_TORONTO", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 97000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_TORONTO" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO", "value": -0.013952442985565305, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_TORONTO:12m" }, { "label": "TORONTO", "value": 3, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:TORONTO:vacancy" }, { "label": "TORONTO", "value": 336180, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:TORONTO:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 97,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: -0.014 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 3 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 336,180 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Vancouver", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:VANCOUVER:level", "nhpi:VANCOUVER:1m", "nhpi:VANCOUVER:12m", "permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:level", "permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:1m", "permits:PERMITS_VANCOUVER:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_VANCOUVER:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_VANCOUVER:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_VANCOUVER:12m", "rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy", "rental:VANCOUVER:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_VANCOUVER", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_VANCOUVER", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_VANCOUVER", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_VANCOUVER", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_VANCOUVER", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_VANCOUVER", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_VANCOUVER", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_VANCOUVER", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 90000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_VANCOUVER" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER", "value": 0.20517809413140853, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_VANCOUVER:12m" }, { "label": "VANCOUVER", "value": 3.7, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:VANCOUVER:vacancy" }, { "label": "VANCOUVER", "value": 127091, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:VANCOUVER:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 90,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 0.205 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 3.7 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 127,091 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Montréal", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:MONTREAL:level", "nhpi:MONTREAL:1m", "nhpi:MONTREAL:12m", "permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:level", "permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:1m", "permits:PERMITS_MONTREAL:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_MONTREAL:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_MONTREAL:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_MONTREAL:12m", "rental:MONTREAL:vacancy", "rental:MONTREAL:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_MONTREAL", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_MONTREAL", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_MONTREAL", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_MONTREAL", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_MONTREAL", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_MONTREAL", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_MONTREAL", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_MONTREAL", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 76000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_MONTREAL" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL", "value": 0.5472342735204805, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_MONTREAL:12m" }, { "label": "MONTREAL", "value": 2.9, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:MONTREAL:vacancy" }, { "label": "MONTREAL", "value": 667266, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:MONTREAL:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 76,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 0.547 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 2.9 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 667,266 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Calgary", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:CALGARY:level", "nhpi:CALGARY:1m", "nhpi:CALGARY:12m", "permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:level", "permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:1m", "permits:PERMITS_CALGARY:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_CALGARY:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_CALGARY:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_CALGARY:12m", "rental:CALGARY:vacancy", "rental:CALGARY:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_CALGARY", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_CALGARY", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_CALGARY", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_CALGARY", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_CALGARY", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_CALGARY", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_CALGARY", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_CALGARY", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 100000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_CALGARY" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY", "value": 2.935030815833284, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_CALGARY:12m" }, { "label": "CALGARY", "value": 5, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:CALGARY:vacancy" }, { "label": "CALGARY", "value": 62657, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:CALGARY:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 100,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 2.935 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 5 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 62,657 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Edmonton", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:EDMONTON:level", "nhpi:EDMONTON:1m", "nhpi:EDMONTON:12m", "permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:level", "permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:1m", "permits:PERMITS_EDMONTON:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_EDMONTON:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_EDMONTON:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_EDMONTON:12m", "rental:EDMONTON:vacancy", "rental:EDMONTON:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_EDMONTON", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_EDMONTON", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_EDMONTON", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_EDMONTON", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_EDMONTON", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_EDMONTON", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_EDMONTON", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_EDMONTON", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 96000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_EDMONTON" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON", "value": 3.0893578969682034, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_EDMONTON:12m" }, { "label": "EDMONTON", "value": 3.8, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:EDMONTON:vacancy" }, { "label": "EDMONTON", "value": 90595, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:EDMONTON:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 96,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 3.089 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 3.8 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 90,595 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Winnipeg", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:WINNIPEG:level", "nhpi:WINNIPEG:1m", "nhpi:WINNIPEG:12m", "permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:level", "permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:1m", "permits:PERMITS_WINNIPEG:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_WINNIPEG:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_WINNIPEG:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_WINNIPEG:12m", "rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy", "rental:WINNIPEG:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_WINNIPEG", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_WINNIPEG", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_WINNIPEG", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_WINNIPEG", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_WINNIPEG", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_WINNIPEG", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_WINNIPEG", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_WINNIPEG", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 83000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_WINNIPEG" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG", "value": 1.2497739385751272, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_WINNIPEG:12m" }, { "label": "WINNIPEG", "value": 2.8, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:WINNIPEG:vacancy" }, { "label": "WINNIPEG", "value": 75154, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:WINNIPEG:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 83,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 1.25 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 2.8 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 75,154 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Halifax", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:HALIFAX:level", "nhpi:HALIFAX:1m", "nhpi:HALIFAX:12m", "permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:level", "permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:1m", "permits:PERMITS_HALIFAX:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_HALIFAX:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_HALIFAX:12m", "rental:HALIFAX:vacancy", "rental:HALIFAX:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_HALIFAX", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_HALIFAX", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_HALIFAX", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_HALIFAX", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_HALIFAX", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_HALIFAX", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_HALIFAX", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_HALIFAX", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 81000, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_HALIFAX" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX", "value": 1.5776364165168921, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_HALIFAX:12m" }, { "label": "HALIFAX", "value": 2.7, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:HALIFAX:vacancy" }, { "label": "HALIFAX", "value": 62411, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:HALIFAX:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 81,000 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 1.578 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 2.7 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 62,411 apartment_units (2025-10-01). Asking rent, condominium rental and absorption are not inferred." ], "watch": [ "price direction", "permits", "construction stages", "vacancy", "population context" ] }, { "geography": "Québec City", "status": "EVIDENCED", "evidence_binding_ids": [ "nhpi:QUEBEC_CITY:level", "nhpi:QUEBEC_CITY:1m", "nhpi:QUEBEC_CITY:12m", "permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:1m", "permits:PERMITS_QUEBEC_CITY:12m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:1m", "construction:CMHC_STARTS_QUEBEC_CITY:12m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:1m", "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_QUEBEC_CITY:12m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:level", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:1m", "construction:CMHC_UNDER_CONSTRUCTION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m", "rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy", "rental:QUEBEC_CITY:universe", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_AFTER_TAX_INCOME_2020_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_OWNER_HOUSEHOLDS_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_RENTER_HOUSEHOLDS_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:CENSUS_TENURE_AVERAGE_HOUSEHOLD_SIZE_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_IMMIGRANTS_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_INTERPROVINCIAL_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:STATCAN_MIGRATION_NET_NON_PERMANENT_RESIDENTS_QUEBEC_CITY", "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m" ], "metrics": [ { "label": "institutional", "value": 76500, "unit": "2020 constant dollars", "period": "2021-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:CENSUS_INCOME_MEDIAN_TOTAL_INCOME_2020_QUEBEC_CITY" }, { "label": "STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY", "value": 0.9965451759322397, "unit": "percent_change", "period": "2025-01-01", "binding_id": "institutional:STATCAN_POPULATION_POPULATION_QUEBEC_CITY:12m" }, { "label": "QUEBEC_CITY", "value": 2.4, "unit": "percent", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:QUEBEC_CITY:vacancy" }, { "label": "QUEBEC_CITY", "value": 118693, "unit": "apartment_units", "period": "2025-10-01", "binding_id": "rental:QUEBEC_CITY:universe" } ], "analysis": [ "Historical median total income: 76,500 2020 constant dollars (2021-01-01); this is a 2020 reference, not current purchasing power.", "Annual population change: 0.997 percent_change (2025-01-01); population context is not household formation or housing demand.", "Primary-rental vacancy: 2.4 percent (2025-10-01); survey-universe size: 118,693 apartment_units (2025-10-01). 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"source_url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015101", "vintage": "2026-08-19", "calculation": "deterministic_percent_change", "unit": "percent_change", "geography": "Halifax", "period": "2026-07-01", "code_version": "housing.institutional-publication.v1", "observation_ids": [ "0267105d-8852-4437-94dd-b827322003dd", "a1a6990e-29f9-40f4-ba26-c0fe38802ccd" ], "source_ids": [ "96ca20d7-8112-4691-b417-76b24d9f14d2" ], "response_sha256": "cb75390bef15109e70867da82d1cab6cc883f77126af5640e0d36c7058c624d1" }, { "binding_id": "construction:CMHC_COMPLETIONS_HALIFAX:level", "value": 116, "source": "Statistics Canada tables 34-10-0151-01 and 34-10-0154-01; originating survey CMHC", "source_url": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015101", "vintage": "2026-08-19", "calculation": "registered_observation", "unit": "dwelling_units", "geography": "Halifax", "period": "2026-07-01", "code_version": "housing.institutional-publication.v1", 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completion or absorption conclusion.", "Housing starts are observed construction commencements under the CMHC survey definition; they are not permits or completed units.", "Housing completions are a construction-stage measure; they do not establish occupancy, sale, rental absorption or tenure availability.", "Units under construction are an inventory stock, not monthly starts, completed supply or a forecast delivery schedule.", "The Canada starts series covers centres of 50,000 people and over; it is not an all-area national total.", "Canada completions and under-construction inventory are not available in this registered slice; only the eight named CMAs are reported.", "All values are actual/unadjusted dwelling units, not seasonally adjusted annual rates.", "Vacancy estimates and apartment-universe counts cover privately initiated apartment structures of three units and over in the eight named CMAs.", "The registered slice does not cover asking rents, occupied-stock rent levels, turnover, condominium rentals, social or affordable housing, unit mix, completions or absorption.", "The apartment universe is a survey-frame count, not new rental supply or completed units in the survey year.", "Vacancy is an annual October survey estimate; the 12-month change is a percentage-point difference, not a percent change or causal effect.", "Model input and forecast eligibility remain disabled; GATE-1 is open.", "SAAR is an annualized, seasonally adjusted rate and is displayed separately from actual monthly starts, completions and under-construction inventory.", "National mortgage and debt-service measures do not describe an individual borrower, lender, city, renewal cohort, delinquency event or payment reset.", "Census income refers to 2020 or 2015; tenure, household size and shelter burden refer to the 2021 Census and are not current affordability.", "Population estimates and population-change components use 2021 CMA boundaries and remain distinct from household formation and housing demand.", "All calculations are deterministic transformations of registered report-eligible evidence; no scenario is represented as an observed fact.", "No proprietary transaction, cap-rate, effective-rent or restricted resale data is used.", "This publication is evidence-led decision support, not investment advice, valuation, legal advice or a forecast." ], "verification_contract": { "every_numeric_claim_bound": true, "required_mutations": [ "changed value", "changed period", "wrong unit", "wrong geography", "swapped source", "stale vintage", "chart/prose disagreement", "unsupported strong conclusion", "missing evidence promoted to assessed state", "derived statistic disagreement" ], "llm_numeric_authority": false }, "model_sha256": "35d2d2152b09abc05f0e1321bb168022a4431fc1eccaef4877afe8c5004049a7" }